Borat - 422, +86, B+ (227 written)
Flushed Away - 58, +2, B+ (16 written)
The Santa Clause 3 127, +13, B- (27 written)

What a slow declogging process.

Borat - 422, +86, B+ (227 written)
Flushed Away - 58, +2, B+ (16 written)
The Santa Clause 3 114, 0, B- (27 written)

Borat - 599, +177, B+ (254 written)
Flushed Away - 101, +43, B- (19 written)
The Santa Clause 3 - 198, +84, C+ (29 written)

Slowly getting more unclogged each hour. Next update should be big.

Borat - 642, +43, B+ (275 written)
Flushed Away - 110, +9, B- (19 written)
The Santa Clause 3 - 214, +16, C+ (33 written)

Excellent for Borat, though I agree with xiayun that its written to overall ratio will be low. I'd say we're looking at a solid $5-6M Friday for it so far based on these numbers. However, the crowd reports don't rule out a $7M Friday, IMO. Flushed Away is weak, and I wouldn't be surprised to see $3M. Santa Clause 3 is also not doing well - I wouldn't be surprised with under $4M for it, unless it pulls a super low ratio.

Borat - 654, +12, B+ (291 written)
Flushed Away - 110, 0, B- (19 written)
The Santa Clause 3 - 214, 0, C+ (34 written)

I don't know nearly as much as most of you on ratios both in terms of ratings and written reviews, but it seems like something is out of whack. Yahoo's interface has changed. Borat had a substantial link on the front page for a few hours early in the afternoon and then had a small link in the late afternoon for a few more hours. After around 6 pm est, no Borat link on the front page. The written reviews are in the 2.24 ratio and that just seems ridiculously low for a movie even as internet savy and hyped as this movie has been. If the ratios of xiayun are used we are looking at best a $4m Friday night and even using Thunder's 165 would give it $4.8m. That just doesn't seem right looking at the crowd reports, sell-outs, and the matinee reports at various websites.

Team America has a 7.4-1 ratio of ratings to written reviews for its current rankings (not sure if opening night this ratio is substantially lower, I would assume it is). Jackass #2 had a 84 ratio in terms of ratings to $1m. It also has a 12.1-1 ratio of ratings to written reviews for its current rankings.

I think given that Borat has 291 written review and will be in the 315-320 range by 3:30 am est, there is some sort of clogging going on. I would estimate that with 315 written reviews there should be approx. 950 user ratings using the high end of xiayun's written/rating ratio.

Using a smaller ratio of 150 ratings per $1m (TAWP had a 253) would give approx $6.33m. I think this should be seen as a fairly conservative estimate.

The Grudge had 119.7 ratio, Grudge 2 had a 79.3 rating (a ratio of 2/3's compared to 2004). The ratings are going down for all movies it seems (perhaps sequels are impacted to a greater amount).

Now using the more median estimate of 3.45 written/ratings, and 155 rating ratio, my ballpark estimate would be $7.1m. This is my best guess for an actual Friday estimate.

The optimistic estimate would be estimate of 3.75 written/ratings, and 150 rating ratio, my estimate would be $8.0m.

So, I think we are looking at a 2% chance below $5.7m
10% chance $5.7-6.3m
25% chance $6.3-6.8m
25% chance $6.8-7.4m
25% chance $7.4-8.0m
10% chance $8.0-9.0m
3% chance above $9.0m

I think reviews are actually almost double listed. I think Borat could get 7m without much trouble.

Borat - 668, +14, B+ (302 written)
Flushed Away - 115, +5, B- (19 written)
The Santa Clause 3 - 224, +10, C+ (35 written)

I'm not going to do any projections tonight. All the crowd reports and notfabio's actual numbers from HSX are much more helpful.

I think there is going to be a Friday-number anticipation thread in the morning. I'm certainly going to try to wake up early.

Final

Borat - 690, +22, B+ (319 written)
Flushed Away - 119, +4, B- (19 written)
The Santa Clause 3 - 239, +15, C+ (35 written)

For what it's worth I'm thinking Borat should have 1200-1500 reviews for about 8m-8.5m.

SC3 might have 450 for 6m today.

FA - about 250 and 3.5m-4m

Borat: 4.5 for a 10 Million opening
Santa Clause: 5.5 for a 20m opening
Flushed Away: 3.4 for a 12m opening

$6.5-7.0m for Borat, $5m for The Santa Clause 3, and $4m for Flushed Away.

BTW, I can't figure out whether the films with extreme clogging should be included in the charts or not. If my projections (or DP07's) held true, the ratios would be ridiculously low, and it'd throw off the ratios on the chart. Unless we made a really good projection as to where the number of reviews should be. I had Borat at 1276 (written x 4), Flushed Away at 190 (written x 10) and The Santa Clause at 350 (written x 10). A rough guess.

OMG! Borat might win the weekend???

My Projections:

Borat - $7.2M
Flushed Away - $2.75M
Santa Clause 3 - $4.0M

I don't think it's really that clogged, otherwise the totals would be higher by now.

Levy that Neptune location is accurate, Borat is gonna do double that. I'm going with $9.5 million. The other two are bombs away.

Levy your quote should be carte blanche not card blanche, if you are referring to someone as having a blank check.

It looks like Borat could open to about 17 mill for the weekend while SC3 coudl do as little as 14.

Rumored friday numbers from HSX:

Borat 7.5 million from 682 theatres. $10,983 average)
Flushed Away 3.4 from 2046 theatres
Santa Clause 3.7 million from 1983 theatres

If true, that should put Borat at over 9 Million, Flushed Away at 6 Million and Santa Clause at 6.5 Million

Nice numbers.

Prolly around $8m for Borat, $5m for Flushed Away, and $6m for Santa.

Probably the first time a crazy DP prediction was still an underprediction.

I say we don't count this weekend among the rest and file it under "Clogged Fridays." Hell, Borat has only added 18 ratings since last night!

Bourne Supremacy, National Treasure, Wedding Crashers, Meet the Fockers, Shrek 2, My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Casino Royale, Deja Vu, Transformers......

Why are you listing movies that haven't come out yet?

Transformers will be that one movie next year where everyone is going "Boy do I look stupid" while you change your prediction for the legs so quickly you make most forget your moronicallly high prediction. *OUGHCOUGHSuperman ReturnsCOUGHCOUGH*



Still, good job on that.

I changed my SR predictions like 10 times. Before release I was near 300 at one point (heck, I might have been over) and just under 200 once. I tried staying about of that mind-numbing thread. Most didn't remember my predictions because I never argued for them. After it was released I changed it about 5 more times.

I would like to take this time to wish a fond farewell to a great friend of ours, Horlicks. He has decided to leave HSX to tend to the reality that is life. As many of you know (or may not know), he was instrumental in making our Yahoo! review tracking what it is today. His extensive research, data collection, insight, and HSX experience made him one of the best traders there, and one of the best contributors here. Regrettably, I was unable to acquire his port (which sold for $177.50 on Ebay) to carry forward his hard work, but I do take away years of experience that he has shared, and I am grateful for that.

I wish Horlicks all the best in his future endeavors, and hope that he will return one day. Thank you again, and best of luck, my friend.

- Dave, a.k.a. Rolling Thunder

If nobody notices before we start tracking, Babel has 369 reviews at this hour.