For me, it's come down to one more nomination. Things could change in a month and LMS could fall out of the picture, but from how I see it right now, LMS should get the 4th nom and the 5th nom is between 3 contenders.

1. The Good German: I have the Good German as 5th contender in all 4 of the big categories (Pic, Dir, Actor, Actress) and I don't really have a good reason as to why (and don't think it will knab ALL 4). I think this race is missing one good overall contender and I don't see any other likely candidates from the films yet to be released. I'm not confident at all, seeing as no one has really seen anything from this but I'll stick with it till the race gets cleared up a bit.

2. Babel: It doesn't have the passion index Crash did-that I agree with. It doesn't have a cast, box office, or buzz that Crash did either. But there is something about it that screams nomination. Initial thoughts after seeing it were that this is not going to be a big Oscar contender but I can't help but think alot of voters may resort to Babel with so many other movies not carrying a strong support base. Plus, it's said to be the third and final film in Innaritu's trilogy of sorts of these multi-storyline criss-crossing movies. I actually think he has the upper hand in the director category above Almodovar.

3. United 93: I just can't read this film so I can't really dismiss it. My gut tells me it's not a contender but I don't want to ignore it.

I remember for seriously what felt like months I was the ONLY person who said Capote could get an Oscar nomination. Then when it started popping up I still had a bunch of people denying it past it getting nominated. [/bragging]

The Good German and The Good Shepherd (the latter is being grossly underpredicted!), though I wouldn't rule out World Trade Center.

I know someone (andaroo?) said something about WTC having strong support in some circles, I think. But other than that (and what I've read will be a strong marketing campaign), I really don't think WTC's chances at major noms are any greater than, say, FOOF's. Maybe even less so.

The Good Shepherd
The Pursuit of Happyness

Iwo Jima and U93 being fill-ins if one of the above doesn't turn out good enough.

I used to have high expectations for The Good German but I wasn't impressed with the trailer.

The Good Sheperd just looks so unpleasant and cliche. Since when has Robert DeNiro been an Oscar calibur director? Bleh, I'll be extremely impressed if this suceeds in any form.

It seems like all the contenders have problems.

Volver: Foreign

Little Miss Sunshine: Too light indie.

Good German: Another Clooney B&W.

Good Shepard: Looks like crap.

Babel/Flags of Our Fathers: Disappointing reviews and bombing box-office.

Iwo Jima: Too much Eastwood love, it seems they want to endorse Flags more.

Pursuit of Happyness: This movie nominated? Really?

Notes on a Scandal: Not enough buzz I guess.

So I don't know what'll happen.

I guess I should explain my Good Shepherd pick, it was based on finding the trailer to be a bad one, as in one of those cases where it looks like the film is better than the trailer. It impressed me a lot with basic things such as the look, the composition of shots, and thematic weight, that I am having a hunch it will get good reviews.

Does it look like it might be a little boring? Yes but since when has that stopped an Oscar nominee.

The Good Shepherd's being underpredicted by most. Robert De Niro, even if he's acted in a number of underwhelming projects as of late, is respected beyond belief and I'm sure AMPAS voters will be impressed he directed such an epic film. Eric Roth has a great record as a screenwriter (he wrote Forrest Gump, The Insider, and Munich, all Best Picture nominees or winners!) And, of course, the cast is overflowing with top-notch talent. The first screening is December 4th and I guarantee it'll be well-received and a major Oscar contender!

Of course you'll "guarantee" that, you've been sweating this movie's balls from day one.

Pedro isn't exactly foreign anymore. I know that sounds funny, but he's the most popular international director in America, and has been for quite some time. His cast is well known in American film (Cruz), and I dare anyone here who had to take Spanish class in high school or college to tell me they didn't get shown a Pedro film as part of class. He's well integrated into culture here, and his camp factor is kind of universal. Lets not forget he already got best screenplay once, and that a film festival retrospective circulated in this country already. There have been four (If one counts Triplettes and Winged Migration) foreign films nominated in non-foreign film related categories in recent history, and more than twice that amount once acting nominations are factored in. Every other anticipated nominee has fallen by the critical waistside lately (FOOF, Babel, Dreamgirls (?)) or B.O. waistside (Last King). I still don't see a bp nom (though maybe a director nom) going to anything 9/11 related.

Volver's in.

If the Republicans could have spun that well they'd still have the House. It doesn't have much chance, it's foreign. You get points for trying though.

Volver, Volver, Volver!

You'll see. I'm not a spinner, I'm the Delphic Sibyl.

Yeah, and I'm Oedipus.

Well, your father probably did die a bit inside the day you were born....

I think the race may just turn into what most were originally predicting...

Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Flags/Letters
The Queen

I can see Babel biting the dust for more light-hearted fare, LMS.
And again, United 93 is a wild card but I highly doubt it could get enough votes.

The only other movie I see having a chance is maybe The Good German and it's solely because we don't really know anything about it yet. The Good Shepherd is in that same category but I have an immense gut feeling that it's not really going to appeal to Oscar voters and I never considered it a contender.

The Departed
Dreamgirls
The Queen
United 93
Letters from Iwo Jima

Loyal's watching Volver tonight, so we'll see how he wieghs in afterwards...if he thinks it has a chance. *prays*

Why not? If Munich, another Eric Roth-scripted espionage drama, appealed to them (despite far more controversial themes), I don't see why The Good Shepherd wouldn't, especially with such a respected ensemble cast.

Even if I'd say it was the best movie of 2005, there's no doubt in my mind that Munich got the nomination because of Steven Spielberg. Not to mention the subject matter appeared interesting, timely, and there seemed to be some semblance of emotion in the trailer. The only person who seems like they'll have more then one facial expression in Sheppard is Angelina Jolie, and she's anything but Oscar material - and looks horribly miscast.

Robert De Niro is just as respected in the industry as Steven Spielberg, or very close to it. And I would say the successes and failures of the CIA is just as relevant as counter-terrorism in today's world. I can't argue about your feeling it'll be emotion-less and/or boring, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

My ass Robert DeNiro is as respected! We're talking the guy who is considered by many to be the greatest director of our time vs. a guy who hasn't been in a good movie (Meet the Parents, where he made fun of himself, being the possible exception) in eight years. A Bronx Tale got a nice reception, but he hardly has much weight as a director as that's the only other film he's ever directed, and it was 13 years ago. Terrorism and Israel are much hotter topics then the CIA, now you're just grasping for straws.

I think they can't ignore United 93 in a year where 9/11-rememberance was the topic du jour. And since WTC was terrible, the quality of United 93 will be enhanced even more. Of course they need a good campaign to raise awareness again, but to me United 93 is a lock with The Departed.
The Good German and Blood Diamond were shown to critics in London last week. Good German got a terrible response, but Blood Diamond is supposed to be a real work of genious so don't call that movie out yet. Flags/Letters is not a lock IMO and since The Queen is mostly Mirren's magic it could end up with a best actress win but no picture nomination

De Niro obviously isn't as respected as a director as Spielberg, but he's arguably the most respected actor of his generation (due in large part to his lucrative creative relationship with Scorsese) and his name will most definitely help The Good Shepherd, as he co-starred in, directed, and co-produced it.