This is what I've been wondering for a while now. Unless something hugely unexpected happens, I see these three movies definitely making it as Best Picture nominees:

The Departed
Dreamgirls
The Queen

After that, the field is pretty wide open. What else can make it into the Top 5?!

Bobby is definitely out now. I would say so is Babel with its mixed reviews and discouraging box-office. Flags of Our Fathers' chances sunk rapidly as well, though it is still in the race. Little Children is pretty much out, IMO.

Other potentials are:

United 93
Letters from Iwo Jima
Volver
Little Miss Sunshine
The Good German
The Good Shepherd
The Blood Diamond
The Pursuit of Happyness

Of those above I thgink the most likely to make it into the 4th spot is United 93. It has the excellent reviews, matched only by The Queen as well as the "importance" card.

It is the 5th slot that I am absolutely uncertain about. No idea currently, but taking a wild guess, I'd go for Little Miss Sunshine, though a presence of an Eastwodd flick there wouldn't surprise me.

I'm still not buying into United 93. I have to see some critics awards before I'm ready to embrace the fact that the academy might embrace it.

I think Little Miss Sunshine is going to make the top 5. I really do. I don't know... it's a gut feeling at this point. And with a few films apparently turning into non-contenders (like Little Children) and others getting a mixed vibe (like Babel) and others disappointing somehow (FOOF in box office) the race is definitely opening up and LMS (which began its Oscar campaign recently) is a really likely candidate!

My thoughts on the rest of the contenders...

United 93: See above. I still have no idea how this film will be received. I gave it an A/A- but I wouldn't be unhappy to see it not show up. It just doesn't feel like a movie that even wants to run for Best Picture. I'm quite surprised that they're going on with a full-fledged Oscar campaign... didn't think they would. Thought it would go enroute the way of Passion of the Christ. So, for me... this is still a big question mark!

Letters from Iwo Jima: Being moved up no, it just doesn't have buzz. It could possibly buold some up by the time of its release, but I think Eastwood may sit this year out. He's starting to become a token nomination himself. Plus, I would think the academy would be more prone to nominate the American perspective rather than the opponent's... but that seems to be going nowhere. I think Iwo Jima could surprise. If it's actually quite an achievement, I think it could get there, but there's little to go on for now.

Volver: LOVED this movie. LOVE Pedro. LOVE Penelope. But with a Foreign nom (and possibly a win) already in lock, I just CAN'T for the life of me comprehend why so many people still think this is a major contender. If I'm wrong, I'll eat my crow with a smile on my face but I don't think it's gonna get there. (PENELOPE for BEST ACTRESS!!)

The Good German: I really want to call this my 5th nominee but I know so little about it. I don't even know what the early word is. Have there been any screenings thus far?

The Good Shepherd. Nope. Sorry. I don't see this AT ALL. It's a great cast and DeNiro directing, but I see barely any potential here.

I actually don't have time to go through the rest but for the most part, those that have been released are falling flat and those that are to be released, we still know so little about them.

So, my prediction as of now?

The Departed
Dreamgirls
The Good German
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

I actually still think Babel has a tiny chance. If it keeps fumbling at the box office, it should be gone but it's doing barely enough to keep in the race.

I've got United 93 and Notes on a Scandal. The former is just the most obvious next choice, Notes I have as a wild-card just because it's a Dench and Blanchett film, and that gives it pedigree.

Little Miss Sunshine has great reviews, but at the end of the day, it's still an extremely light comedy. Comedy nominations are so hard to get on their own, and then the ones that do are the Lost in Translation/Sideways type, the most serious of the genre. Little Miss Sunshine is just a pure comedy through and through, and I don't think the academy will go for it.

Volver... not quite Life is Beautiful or Crouching Tiger, it'll win the foreign nom probably and that's it.

Right now I'm thinking it's Notes, Letters from Iwo Jima, The Good German, or Babel for the reasons Raffiki stated among a few others.

I'd strongly disagree that LMS is purely comedy and nothing but "light." It does have some weight behind it.

Given how the major critics are such in love with Eastwood and supposedly Letters from Iwo Jima is at least better, if not much better, Letters is a contender. However, it is still handicapped by the fact that it is in Japanese. The one thing it can help is to get Eastwood a director nom for tackling an ambitious project.

I'm feeling pretty good about Little Miss Sunshine now. The $60m box office looks better and better, and the DVDs are reaching the members at the right time. loyal will probably be able to brag after all.

United 93 should be the other logical choice, but will we have only one film from December? The nominees would be quite spread out by academy's standard.

I see United 93 and something else in December. I know they seem unlikely but I think Pursuit of Happyness and Children of Men (which I'd add to the contenders) both have potential if they really deliver the box office and critics love 'em.

The Good German
The Good Shepherd
The Blood Diamond
The Pursuit of Happyness

These are hard to gauge without early word.

Any one of those could knock LMS, U93, or Volver out of the top 5, though.

As for what I think will actually make it in besides the 3 locks, I really have no idea.

United 93 will score a nomination, though, IF IT'S THE LAST THING I DO.

Out of curiosity, what have been your top films of the year so far?

The Good Sheperd just looks reallly unpleasant to me. It's about an emotionally unavailable guy without a hint of charm ignoring his wife and doing a lot of bad things for a nasty organization... Where's the appeal? And so far early reviews of The Good German haven't been very good at all, so I don't think it's getting in either.

There is early word on The Good Shepherd and it was rather mixed, though not bad. Then again, early word on The Departed was mixed as well.

Also...what about The Painted Veil?

I sure hope so.

I think Flags is in by default. Letters might sidestep Flags and get in instead. But an Eastwood WWII is being nominated for BP.

The Departed
Dreamgirls
The Queen
Letters From Iwo Jima (unless it doesn't manage to remove the bad taste left by Flags)

And finally:

Children of Men.

If Iwo Jima stumbles as well, then the final place will probably go to The Pursuit of Happyness. Followed by either The Good German or The Good Shepard depending on reaction.

is there a pedigree to The Pursuit of Happyness that I'm missing. Who's the director/writer?

Some Italian guy, I think.

As for the final two, I'm still seeing Babel and Flags in there (call me crazy).


The Painted Veil still looks too much like The White Countess, Notes on a Scandal and the two "Good" (The Good Shepherd and The Good German) movies are possibilities, but I still don't buy their chances, while the two "Littles" (Little Children and Little Miss Sunshine) are imo more close to make the cut along with Volver...


So:
Babel
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
The Departed
The Queen


Sound reasonable.

At the current moment, I see:

The Queen
Dreamgirls
The Departed
United 93
Little Miss Sunshine

As long as its not World Trade Center (which Oscarwatch and Gold Derby claim has support in the guilds) I will be okay.

I doubt United 93, I always have, but I am hoping it's profile raises in the next few weeks at critic awards. I suspect that Little Miss Sunshine, United 93, The Queen, Dreamgirls, and The Departed will do well at those events. As of right now, to me, those seem like the most ideal candidates for Best Picture, but doubtful for the top 5.

Letters and Flags are interesting. I hope Letters is better than Flags, or at least, I hope the "better" of the two is nominated if a Eastwood film has to be nominated. But I don't see more than 5 or so nominations for either film (Picture, Director, Screenplay, Cinematography?, something else) and not as much support with the techs (which I still believe will be dominated by Pirates, X3, etc.).

I'm leaning this way at the moment...

Best Picture
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

Best Director
Bill Condon - Dreamgirls
Stephen Frears - The Queen
Clint Eastwood - Letters From Iwo Jima/Flags of our Fathers
Paul Greengrass - United 93
Martin Scorsese - The Departed

I could totally see these nominations. Babel can be revived by critic awards, starting at GG (O'Neil said it's pretty much a lock for Drama nom) and BFCA.

Currently, it looks like this for me:

1. The Departed
2. The Queen
3. Dreamgirls
4. United 93 (Universal is putting on the strongest campaign this year)
5. The Pursuit of Happyness (Will Smith and major B.O. hit will work with it)
6. Little Miss Sunshine (I was predicting it for a while, but I'm beginning to doubt its momentum)

And neither Eastwood WWII films are getting in. FOOF bombed too badly, and LFIJ is in Japanese with no commercial appeal.

O'Neil and Oscarwatch are also still pimpin' World Trade Center, which is scary to me

Basically I'm kind of conflicted on BP. If we assume that multi-nominees for studios don't happen that often then I'm stuck with thinking Paramount has a more uphill battle than a seasoned studio like Universal (The Good Shepherd/United 93/Children of Men).

Dreamworks has Dreamgirls right now, which will seem to be it's main push, and Warner Bros. has The Departed. Iwo Jima is going to fly under the Paramount flag according to IMDB (Dreamworks and Paramount are both owned by Viacom) which means that, if it is great, maybe it has a shot of being the Eastwood rather than Babel film (or even WTC *shudder*) if studio vs. studio matters to you.

Still, studio vs. studio isn't a statistic to rely on, we don't know how much AMPAS takes that into account, although there is evidence that something generally/usually keep the films coming from different studios.

So I would only replace Babel with Iwo Jima or a Universal film (Good Shepherd/United 93). Blood Diamond/Good German seem pretty dead against The Departed, and Fox seems pretty secure with Little Miss Sunshine as the only pure comedy movie (the Sideways vote).

I will back down on my "The Departed will win Best Picture" stance, I think Dreamgirls has a genuine shot to win now. Will be interesting to see.

I have to say, the crop of this years probable nominees is ten times better than those of 2005.

Nope, Iwo Jima is released by Warner so that's now competing alongside WB contender The Departed & presumed contender The Good German. I wonder if one of the factors in WB's decision to push Iwo Jima forward was a nervousness over how The Good German might be received?

Hmmm... this is different from everything I'm hearing. I know it is a co-production, WB has rights outside the US for sure. But I thought the internal US distributor was Dreamworks/Paramount. Wikipedia also states this. Oscarwatch also lists FOOF as Paramount...
http://www.oscarwatch.com/FYC/gallery/2 ... =Paramount

Not WB...
http://www.oscarwatch.com/FYC/gallery/2 ... 20Pictures

Oscarwatch also lists Dreamgirls under Paramount. Hmmmmmmmmmmm... indeed.

Well, according to Dave Poland, Warners have the domestic distribution rights. Whether he's right or not, I don't know.

http://www.mcnblogs.com/thehotblog/archives/2006/11/letetr_to_the_a.html#comments

Edit: From Variety:

Clint's 'Letters' coming early
December release puts pic in kudos contention
By PAMELA MCCLINTOCK

Warner Bros. is moving up the release date of Clint Eastwood's Japanese-language "Letters From Iwo Jima" -- the companion pic to "Flags of Our Fathers" -- from Feb. 9 to Dec. 20.

New frame puts "Letters" up for awards consideration, with Warners planning to make the film available to critics groups and guilds in its limited run.

Pic will open in L.A. and New York, and possibly in San Francisco.

Eastwood approached Warners about the date change for "Letters" after consulting with Steven Spielberg, who brought in Eastwood to direct "Flags" for DreamWorks.

Spielberg is a producer on both pics.

DreamWorks partnered with Warners on "Flags." The two studios partnered again when Eastwood decided he wanted to shoot a companion picture telling the story of the battle of Iwo Jima from the Japanese perspective.

The new Dec. 20 date was locked in early Wednesday evening, as Eastwood was in Japan to promote "Letters," which hadn't been set to open until Feb. 9.


Mixed message. They say Dreamworks partnered with Warners on Flags as well, but make no mention of the fact that Paramount released that domestically. My only guess is that they have a deal where Warners gets domestic rights on Letters.

Thanks Snrub. That's interesting confirmation. Dreamworks/Paramount are the same company now, I'm not certain but I believe that from now on Dreamworks = Paramount, and it looks like they are going to start using Paramount branding.

http://www.paramount.com/ main page is the Dreamgirls trailer.

That might have a significant impact on Babel's chances. I still honestly have trouble seeing Babel nominated, and it's "buzz" could be due to the fact that up until last week nobody had seen Dreamgirls. Who knows.

With two strongish Dreamworks/Paramount films and some pretty strong Warner Bros. films, I would say that that last spot will likely go to a Universal film unless Iwo Jima is too good to ignore. Eastwood still picking up a Director nomination rather than the LMS directors. Flags is not dead though.

Fifth slot going to:
1. United 93 or Good Shepherd
2. Letters from Iwo Jima or Flags of our Fathers
3. Babel

It doesn't help that the likely Globe nominees (to me at least) are:
1. The Departed
2. The Queen
3. Babel
4. United 93 or Good Shepherd
5. Letters from Iwo Jima or Flags of Our Fathers

If I remember correctly WB has domestic/o'seas distribution for Flags & Letters while Paramount is the US distributor of Flags. I remember seeing this confirmed on GD/The Envelope months & months ago but it's also true that earlier in the year there was a belief that Paramount would be distributing both films. Guess Wikipedia & OW don't update very often! Here's an excerpt from Dave Germain's 16/11 AP article about Letters which basically confirms what I've been saying:

"Letters From Iwo Jima" opens Dec. 9 in Japan, where director Eastwood has been screening it to great acclaim, Fellman said Thursday.

"The reaction has been overwhelming, more than he ever expected, and based on that conversation and the fact that the movie is ready to go, it was in the best interests of the movie to move the date up," Fellman said.

The schedule change mirrors the approach Warner Bros. took two years ago with Eastwood's "Million Dollar Baby," which was ready earlier than expected and added to the December slate as a last-minute entry to qualify for the Oscars.

"Million Dollar Baby" won best-picture and three other Oscars: director for Eastwood, actress for Hilary Swank and supporting actor for Morgan Freeman.

"Flags of Our Fathers" debuted to praise from critics but has been a box-office underachiever, poking along to a modest $31 million domestically so far. Weak box-office returns are viewed as a potential hindrance to a film's awards prospects, creating a negative aura that it failed to live up to expectations.

Bookending "Flags of Our Fathers" with "Letters From Iwo Jima" so quickly afterward could raise the awards and financial prospects for both films.

If "Letters From Iwo Jima" earns similar critical praise, it will make Eastwood's achievement - two ambitious, acclaimed films in one year - all the more impressive.

"Flags of Our Fathers" was distributed domestically by Paramount, though Warner Bros. is handling the film overseas. Fellman said the so-so results on "Flags of Our Fathers" was not a consideration in moving up the release of "Letters From Iwo Jima," "but if it helps, I'm pleased.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/0611 ... m_iwo_jima