Saw III - 854, 760 Friday, +35, B
Catch a Fire - 104, 102 Friday, +1, C+
Running With Scissors - 118, 39 Friday, +0, C+

pfft, watch as the beast gets a 45m+ wknd

whats Running with Scissors looking like?

Like garbage. It will be lucky to get $0.75M today. I agree with DP07 - Saw III probably has 1,800 - 2,000 reviews. I definitely see $15M+ tonight.

Saw III - 880, 786 Friday, +26, B
Catch a Fire - 105, 103 Friday, +1, C+
Running With Scissors - 118, 39 Friday, +0, C+

I projected 1535 reviews for Saw III today, and it would appear to be severely clogged. Unless, of course, this is one of those rare situations where a film just gets a ton of written reviews.

How about Catch a Fire?

I'd say $1M, in-line with MTC tracking.

Good to know, looked like the ultimate flop, glad I went low

Saw III - 921, 827 Friday, +41, B (654 written)
Catch a Fire - 109, 107 Friday, +4, C+
Running With Scissors - 120, 41 Friday, +2, C+

Minimum $14m for Saw III.

Still insanely clogged. Haven't had a 100+ bump in several hours now, hope the post-midnight update unclogs like it has in the past. The amount of writtens is crazy, though. If not for clogging, RT, xia, and others, what is a normal written-to-rating ratio, like 1:5 or so for a normal movie and 1:3 or 4 for a fan movie like this?

What's the likely range for Saw 3? I'm hoping for 16-17 million and a weekend over 40 million. It would then likely reach 100 million, an amazing feat for a low-budget thriller.

Leigh Whannell should demand a high fee for his next screenplay as he wrote all 3 Saw films.

In the last 5 hours there have now been 445 written reviews and 307 total added. It was clogged even then. It must now be clogged by 900 at the least and probably 1,200. This is the worst we have ever seen.

I honestly think we will see about 18m, but with a big Sat drop.

I'll assume that it has around 1,700 and go with a 100 ratio, given the massive number of written reviews. $17m Friday, and around $39-41m opening weekend (around 15-20% drop on Saturday).

Umm, sorry for the ignorance, but..."clogged?"

Whatchya mean?

The hsx reports don't sound that great. I'm not sure, although a higher ratio than Saw II would surprise me. I can't imagine that it's under 1,500 reviews now.

Clogged is when the system for updating the number of reviews each hour is, well... clogged. It's slow. Votes are automatically updated every hour, but sometimes, it's all backed up, which is why we see hours with just +1 increases and another hour with +200. In this situation, Saw III is really clogged. We know this because of the number of written reviews to actual votes. 900-ish votes to 600-ish reviews is VERY clogged. Votes should be at the very least 4x more than the written.

^Ok, makes sense. I always thought the number updated with each review. I never noticed that it stayed the same after I reviewed as before.

So, we're expecting it to jump HUGE at some point, right?

Saw III - 1145, 1051 Friday, +224, B (675 written)
Catch a Fire - 115, 113 Friday, +6, C+ (12 written)
Running With Scissors - 124, 45 Friday, +4, C+ (24 written)

A little unclogged, I guess. But still backed up, there's no way it has less than 2x as many overall ratings as written reviews, and the Friday figure above is like 1.5x.

Ratings becoming more and more obsolete, as this ratio is guaranteed to be too low, except for when people adjust the data themselves, to come up with a reasonable ratio. Comparing written reviews may become the way to go for the future, for the bigger movies at least.

I'm going to follow the rule of higher ratio for high written percentage and compensate the number with clogging. Projections:

Saw III - $13-14m
Catch a Fire - $1.2-1.4m
Running with Scissors - $0.75m

Still think Yahoo will be proven useful this week.

So how much are you compensating for clogging?

Don't get me wrong, I think the Yahoo data is still useful overall. But that we can't rely on # of ratings anymore. It's far too often that knowledgeable people like you and others have to compensate for the data. Which basically means, adjust the figures based on what sounds right to you, not go by the Yahoo ratings.

We end up adjusting based on writtens and crowd reports, and it just seems to me that going off of writtens may be beneficial in the future, because those get updated immediately and don't get clogged.

Anyway, all things considered, I'm looking for a $15+ Fri and $39 weekend for Saw.

We already compensate for clogging in the initial ratio projections, so if it turns out the ratio is between 70 and 80 for Saw III, then it falls right in line with the couple of recent horror flicks and means we still have a good handle on the projections at the beginning of the day. If it doesn't, i.e. if the ratio continues to trend lower and break record, then we are definitely having issues.

I'm not objecting tracking written reviews, since it could certainly be proven useful with a similar ratio mechanism.

Saw III

Projected Friday: 13.50 (78) - 14.60 (72)
Median Friday: 14.05 million (75)

Multiplier: 2.40 - 2.60

Weekend: 33.72 - 36.53
Median Weekend: 35.10 (2.50)

Not even going to bother at guessing at the other 2. Catch a Fire & Running with Scissors are (in no particular order): Low and Lower.

Saw III has been clogged all day, so I'm sticking with the projection I made at 12:30. I believe it should have at least 1600 reviews, but with a slightly higher ratio.

Saw III - $16.6M
Catch A Fire - $1.0M
Running With Scissors - $0.75M

Well, xiayun was right.

As usual.

Things are weird in this era of clogging and ratios in the 60's and 70's, but as long as Xia and the rest of you are compensating properly, props to you!