We are only a few days away from 2005, so why not start thinking what the contenders are next year? As we saw this year, anything can change in a heart beat even as late as November (the flop of Alexander and the fast rising of Million Dollar Baby), but here are some potential players at this point:

The New World - Directed by Terrence Malick (The Thin Red Line), this is New Line's big gun for the year. I'm still not convinced about any movie that stars Colin Farrell, but Malick is a great director, and the material looks solid. Christian Bale is due.

Cinderella Man - From the trailer, you know exactly what Universal wants the audience to think about: "Academy Award Winner Ron Howard; Academy Award Winner Russell Crowe; Academy Award Winner Renée Zellweger..." But can any of them win so soon again? I don't believe Howard can win twice in 5 years, and I even have serious doubt about its nomination. Another biopic? Another boxing story? The prestige is there, and I think people may be tired of it.

Memoirs of a Geisha - Asking Rob Marshall to win again so soon is probably too much as well, especially considering this is only his second feature film. 2-for-2 just isn't going to happen. Sam Mendes couldn't do it with The Road to Perdition. However, one advantage over Cinderalla Man is that DreamWorks has been in an Oscar slump lately and is due for a comeback. The release date looks good, at least here the actors/actresses are never honored before. Zhang Ziyi and Gong Li will be big contenders for the lead and supporting actress races.

Jarhead - Speaking of Sam Mendes, his next film, based on a best-selling book, looks to be a strong contender on paper as well. Maybe Peter Sarsgaard can finally get that supporting actor nod.

The Producers - Another Tony-Award Winning musical. That automatically makes it a contender these days.

Brokeback Mountain - Backed by Focus Feature, Ang Lee is back with this powerful drama. I have high hope for this one, and it boasts a stellar cast of Heath Ledger, Jake Gyllenhall, and Michelle Williams.

Che - Also distributed by Focus, it is directed by Steven Soderbergh and written by Terrence Malick. It is an epic about Argentine revolutionary Che Guevara that stars Benicio Del Toro and Javier Bardem. Everything sounds oscar-baity.

Oliver Twist - Sony's calling card. A classic novel and directed by Roman Polanski.

Other possibilities:

Class Action, Ask the Dust, All the King's Men, Proof

Memoirs of a Geisha is the only one I think is a certain contender at this moment.


Like all previous years (and I mean ALL), the films that spoil everythibng are the surprises that come at the end of the year, like this year's Million Dollar baby and Sideways.


I don't like the idea of Rob Marshall doing it, but hey, at least it's being made.


I think Wallace and Gromit and Howl's Moving Castle will be animation nominees, and Howl's hopefully win

Look for possible nominations for big films; if Jckson pulls of King Kong, we could see nominations for Watts or McKellen. Hey, you never know...

Seeing Walk the Line moved to later in the year (from April to November) has me thinking that 20th Century Fox may have something... I sure hope so. One of the best American actors of his generations (Jaquin Pheonix) and Recce Witherspoon as Johnny and June Carter Cash? Sign me up! There is something very "Ray" about it.

Elisabethtown could be a big deal, as could Kingdom of Heaven (I think Alexander and Troy being destroyed by reviewers helps this one). Both Bloom projects. One Cameron Crowe! one Ridley Scott.

I don't buy the whole Rob Marshall thing. And I don't think Memoirs of a Geisha will be that big of a deal.

I think The New World, at this point, looks very adult and very Master and Commander/The Thin Red Line-ish. I'm looking forward to this. As does Jarhead, which looks amazing on paper.

People will scoff but you can't completely look past Spielberg and Jackson... these guys can make genre films that suprass all expectations.

The Producers? No name director... Nathan Lane? Matthew Broderick? No thanks.

Memoirs of a Geisha isn't just Rob Marshall. It has Spielberg as the producer, Akiva Goldsman as the writer, and John Williams for the score. It does have a lot of issues to overcome. The biggest one for me is that how the audience will react to Zhang Ziyi/Gong Li speaking English with a Japanese accent when they are not native Japanese. Still, DreamWorks is definitely treating it as their big oscar contender, otherwise they could just use local Japanese talents instead of going all out and recruiting the best/most visible Asian talents there are.

I agree that War of the Worlds and King Kong are the contenders from the blockbuster side. Maybe even Narnia.

I should also mention Arms and the Man, Michael Mann's next project.

Oh I think Memoires of a Geisha is definately aimed to be the Oscar picture, but I just don't think its as big of a deal to be really considered a frontrunner like A Beautiful Mind, Return of the King, Cold Mountain, Gangs of New York, Chicago, The Aviator were/are. Even for poor Cold Mountain, going in to the last few days it was a super-strong competitor.

In fact, I think this will be the first time since the year Gladiator won (2000) that there won't be a "reserved" spot on the Best Picture predictions for one or two of those pictures.

On the Dreamworks front... watch out for The Prize Winner of Defiance, Ohio. Get this: Julianne Moore, Woody Harrelson, Laura Dern... 1950s housewife, woman must keep her family together when times are tough, so she starts singing jingles. Female director. Robert Zemeckis produced. Fall 2005. That SCREAMS Oscar.

*ding ding ding*

We've got ourselves a nominee. That is Oscar-bait if I ever heard of any such thing.

Hollywood is just waiting to give Moore an Oscar. The moment I first heard about this I thought she better start preparing her acceptance speech.

Other projects of note:

Warner Bros.:
Syriana hasn't been mentioned, and it looks pretty incredible. Probably the main Warner Bros. push? The Great Raid (Warner Bros.).

Sony
All the King's Men. Fall 2005. Sean Penn, Jude Law, Kate Winslet, Patricia Clarkson, James Gandolfini, Mark Ruffalo, Anthony Hopkins. YIKES! Also: Rent, Marie Antoinette.

Focus
The Ice Harvest. The Constant Gardner.

They could secure a win by making her a drug addicted, scizopherenic, parapalegic.

Really? Ever since it was announced that Spielberg was attached to the project, I thought it would easily take the position of early frontrunner (in some shape or form).

IonCinema's Top 50 most anticipated films for 2005.

Yeah, it does... but is it based on a popular novel? Because that's gotta be the most yawn inducing movie name of 2005.

Hmm, I thought is was kind of kitschy, like the 1950's themselves.

One I'm looking forward to that should get some Oscar attention is Class Action. It's from the director of Whale Rider, Niki Karo(sp?) and stars Charlize Theron, Frances McDormand, and Sissy Spacek. There's got to be an Oscar in there somewhere.

The New World and Memoirs of a Geischa will be the frontrunners in my opinion.

What about the Darren Aronofsky's The Fountain? Could it be an oscar contender the same way Requim for a Dream was?

You mean in the way that it'll be highly-acclaimed and praised, yet snubbed?