Pedro Almodovar will be a strong contender if Spain doesn't choose Volver as their selection.

They didn't. See The Contenders thread.

As for my predictions:

Babel (Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu)
Dreamgirls (Bill Condon)
The Queen (Stehpen Frears)
United 93 (Paul Greengrass)
Volver (Pedro Almovador)

Nolan, Eastwood and Scorsese get in when their movies make $100 million. And I'm seriously considering Cuaron if Children of Men doesn't flop.

If your predictions come true we'll have four Best Director nominees for movies grossing less than $50 million (and most likely less than $30 million as well). Volver won't make that much obviously, neither will The Queen. U93 hasn't made that either and the only chance Babel makes much more than 21 Grams is a Best Picture frontrunner status.

In other words, a line-up like this I just don't see happening.

Missed this post earlier.

I might modify the list (replaicing Condon with LMS directors)... I think of that line-up Greengrass would win, but that would not support my no-split theory.

I thought we figured out the co-director situation in LMS rules out a BD run.

And Positive Jon, you're smoking some strong stuff. Scorsese and Eastwood might as well have their names pre-printed on the nomination ballot. There is NO WAY they won't be nominated.

It complicates it. Doesn't rule it out

Scorsece is a lock. Even if somehow The Departed misses a BP nom as the 6th or 7th spot or whatever, there's guaranteed to be at least one BP without BD with the pack this year, and Scorsece would be guaranteed to take that last spot pretty much. And aside from that, I don't see The Departed missing a nom anyways, it's getting better reviews than Aviator and Gangs and this is the stylistic version of him people are passionate about, why the hell wouldn't it get one.

As of right now:

Clint Eastwood
Martin Scorcese
Stehpen Frears
Paul Greengrass
Emelio Estevez

Who of them will be the one without a BP nom?

Whoops, I spelled Emilio wrong.

There's nothing pointing to any types of splits yet. It could go 5/5 right now. I'm not sold on Dreamgirls getting anything in BP or BD. The Queen and United 93 could split, I guess.

Last year was the first time in what, 30-40 years? That it was 5/5... Heh

As of right now, for me:

Martin Scorcese
Clint Eastwood
Stephen Soderbergh
Robert DeNiro
Stephen Frears

Not exactly. If you look at BE, it'll only have luck if the film Spain does choose is not frontrunner to win the entire BFLF category. Can you picture a Spanish film winning best import, Cruz getting a nom, and Almodovar winning BD? It might as well just be the Goya awards!


Scorsese is taking it this year. I'm tingling all over.

Martin Scorsese
Clint Eastwood
Stephen Frears
Pedro Almodovar
Bill Condon

Well, it's Spain's official selection anyway so his chances are shot down.

A double nom for Eastwood would be interesting.

1. Martin Scorsese, The Departed
2. Stephen Frears, The Queen
3. Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
4. Paul Greengrass, United 93
5. Pedro Almodovar, Volver

6. Steven Soderbergh, The Good German
7. Alejandro Innaritu, Babel
8. Clint Eastwood, Flags of Our Fathers
9. Yimou Zhang, Curse of the Golden Flower
10. Todd Field, Little Children

A rather crowded field, even with Babel, FOOF, and Little Children disappointing at various fronts.

Martin Scorsese
Stephen Frears
Bill Condon
Alfonso Cuaron
Pedro Almodovar

Anyone else feel like Almodovar's lost any real buzz?

Figure Scorsese, Frears (What a great, understated job on very difficult material) and Condon for can't misses.

Eastwood is probably going to fight his way back into this one. Then, I see.....a large, gaping void.

Only way Scorsece can lose is if Cuaron and Children of Men get insane buzz, I think. No way they'd go to Eastwood again over him, and it's not happening for Condon.

Martin Scorsece
Clint Eastwood
Stephen Frears
Alfonso Cuaron
Bill Condon

Pedro buzz is low because the distribution for Volver is so bad, just looking at the theatre counts make my eyes bleed.

I don't think Eastwood is fighting his way back into this one. Actually, I'm surprised everyone still has him on the lists at all. 5th spot is wide open.

The funny thing is, this could be a year where BD has two directors (make that up to three directors) with roots outside of the American system. I wonder if it'll send off warning bells in Hollywoodland?

Right now i dont see anyone beating scorsese.

Yeah, I think this is finally Scorsese's year. If he doesn't win this year, he'll likely never win.

Yeah, lol, ive been saying that since GONY.