I was reading through this Oscar section and for me there is so much information from alot of people who take the Oscars very serious. I am wondering if anyone thinks they know of any Oscars that have already been won yet as it is already November and the end of the year is fast approaching. For me, I can only guess the Departed for Best Picture. Anyone else?

Helen Mirren has already won Best Actress for The Queen. She has no real competition.

Martin Scorcese and The Departed have won. Eddie Murphy wins if Dreamgirls doesn't flat out suck. Kate Winslet wins if New Line gets their act together and runs a smart campaign. (I'm not buying into Helen Mirren "Best Actress" It just doesn't fit) The Queen has won Best Original Screenplay.

Everything else is still up for grabs.

Why would The Queen winning for screenplay being a lock but Helen Mirren winning doesn't fit? That doesn;'t make sense.

What the hell do you mean it doesn't fit? Little Children has been seen by a total of 12 people, The Queen is doing monster business. Helen Mirren fits waaaayyyyy more than Winslet as a goofy housewife. Mirren has it in the bag, 100%.

The Departed has NOT won BP, and I seriously doubt it'll come close. Marty will win, yes, but the movie, no. Let's not forget that it is a remake, it's extremely violent and profane; not the Academy's usual cup of tea.

Of course it doesn't. Nothing I say does.

You need to lose the attitude fast.

Helen Mirren doesn't fit was more in reference to her age. Best Actress is just not an award that goes to older actresses, especially lately. It's America's sweetheart. Obviously, New Line has their work cut out for them, but Winslet and Cruz are very much a threat to Mirren because of their youth. (plus they gave great performances in films that have been critically strong.

We also have to consider that snubs do happen, and Mirren could easily get snubbed for the win, setting up that future supporting role that'll net her a clear victory in the next year or two. I definitely wouldn't call Mirren a lock this year. Not for a win. If I were to list what has the best shot at winning for The Queen, it would be it's screenplay.

Mav does have a point that Best Actress historically goes to younger actresses (voters tend to have bias against older actresses in the category). Best Actor is the exact opposite (an older actor has a better chance of winning). That's just the way it is.

But of course, I am biased myself and would love to see Kate Winslet take home an Oscar FINALLY.

PEACE, Mike.

I know younger actresses have been winning recently, but:

A) The Queen, which has excellent reviews to begin with, is apparently dominated by Helen Mirren
B) She's playing a real-life figure
C) Box office is excellent
D) Her competition as of now is either hampered by "too light" roles (Meryl Streep), poor box office (Kate Winslet), etc.
E) She has never won before, has been nominated twice
F) It's not like older actresses can't/don't ever win (Frances McDormand in Fargo, Susan Sarandon in Dead Man Walking, Jessica Lange in Blue Sky, etc.)

Hmmm, Winslet, no. Cruz...YES. At one point this year I thought Volver was going to be confined to the BFLF category, but not anymore. I think its going to be the big surprise of this year's awards, and Cruz is definately going to challenge for top spot. I also think its going to have a fantastic run, and be very high buzz right at the perfect moment. I also have no problem saying its an opportunity to the Academy to reach out to the massive amount of Spanish, and Spanish language residents of the US, and they're desperate for new viewers. Plus, Pedro is a legend, there was an entire retrospective film festival playing over parts of the country leading up to Volver's opening, and he's pretty much the last man in the great era of personalized directors before movies just become raw industry, imo. He's still knwon by name, and gets lumped together as often with the international greats of the 70's as he does with today's directors. There is massive critical acclaim and good opening weekend reception. Cruz definately has a big chance at winning this year.

I don't think Mav was trying to say Mirren WON'T win, he's just trying to say that her winning is not a lock yet, and he doesn't buy that. I agree that Mirren is well in the lead to winning Best Actress, and many people believe she's a lock to win already. Mav disagrees. That's okay.

PEACE, Mike.

...I'm aware.

I'm doing the same thing he is, saying why I think she probably will win...

What is the problem here?

Uh, why is it with you I'm not allowed to debate? Why so defensive?

I'm simply trying to correct your statement (F) where you said it's not like older actresses never win. Well, duh. I don't think Mav was trying to say older actresses NEVER win. But maybe I'm wrong. You know Mav better than I do.

Sorry I became involved. I'll be on my way now.

PEACE, Mike.

Haha nevermind, my bad.

I thought you were telling me it was "OK" and "Mav disagreed" as a way of telling me I didn't need to be saying anything.

You know, I went to Mirren's imdb page and I can't believe she's never won an Oscar. She sure got a bum deal compared to Maggie Smith.

Best Picture - The Departed
Best Director - The Departed
Best Actress - Helen Mirren, The Queen
Editing - The Departed
Best Animated Feature - Cars
Best Documentary - An Inconvenient Truth
Best Make Up - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Best Visual Effects - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Best Sound Effects Editing - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Foreign Film - Volver

I'm weak on Animated Film though, I just think that Cars is the logical winner based on Box Office + Critical Reception + Wallace winning last year + Happy Feet looks like ass.

Mirren will win, not only because she is deserving, but it's a chance to award more established (read: older) women in roles, which has always been a criticism of the Oscars, and the British seem very happy about this film (nominating it for their own awards) so I see a big contingent of those 1000+ British members of the Academy sticking up for the home team. And the Box Office is grand. Also, it is likely The Queen gets a Best Picture nomination which will up the win profile a bit.

Cruz will be nominated and may be the person that people look to for an upset, but it won't happen. Volver will win Foreign Picture and hey, it still might be the 5th nominee, who knows. Winslet will be lucky with a nomination seeing how badly Little Children has been botched. Look for Winslet to win when the combination of a good role + a popular role makes awarding her unavoidable.

You're not allowed to leave this discussion, Mike.

As for the rest of you, I need some time to re-energize, so I'll get back to you.

A couple things...

1. Being that Picture and Director are probably the two most interconnected awards of the evening, conceding that Scorsese will win Director and saying that Departed has no chance to win BP is just flat out illogical.

2. It is a remake, but that doesn't seem to matter in this case. This seems to be what the anti-Departed folks are hanging their hats on.

3. Extremely violent and profane... Gladiator, Braveheart, Silence of the Lambs, and countless other nominees who pushed the boundaries of violence (Midnight Express, Saving Private Ryan, etc.). It's not like it's a horror movie, there is gun violence and blood but it's not as graphic as Gladiator was.

4. Does anybody here think the Academy will be put off by an over-abundance of "fucks" in essentially a mafia movie? I mean... honestly?

5. The Departed will win the SAG award.

6. The Departed will likely be the nominee with the biggest Box Office, or second biggest, depending on how hard Dreamgirls hits.

7. I could see someone saying "Dreamgirls still has a shot at BP" and maybe it does, but hedging your bets on a split during a year where Scorsese and his film, after his two previous films were nominated (and some would say Aviator was upset) on one of his biggest late career upswings post-Goodfellas is a little foolish in my opinion.

It's really not even all that fathomable that the academy would completely disrespect Marty with a split when he finally wins after all the years of cock teasing. I didn't even bother trying to explain the A B C's to Full Eyes. It won't make a dent.

Yeah, if Marty doesn't win this year there will be people screaming. I told Lecter in IM the other day that as of right now there has been bigger lock for a Best Picture winner at this point in recent history other than Return of the King and Titanic.

When Eastwood won a few years ago I honestly believe it was because Million Dollar Baby was a better/more emotionally accessible movie and Eastwood is an icon, and EVEN THEN people were complaining about Scorsese's lack of a win. With the success of The Departed, with the public (which in this case is extremely important) as well as the critics, there is no reason not to award him or the film this year.

Scorsece has director, but I'm hesitant about saying BP is a lock, because I think there's a 5% chance that United 93 pulls a Crash, heh.

The Departed isn't locked at all...?

We have to rule out Winslet from any possible win. She never had a chance even before the poor box office because of one reason: she plays a suburban housewife. Those type of roles never win! Ask Annette Bening, Naomi Watts, Sissy Spacek, Julianne Moore, Diane Lane, etc. To win Best Actress, you need a role as either a strong working woman whose work life overshadow your personal life, or you have to be a single mother taking care of a child.

Scorcese is a lock for Director, Best Pic looks good but no means a lock.

I'd say Mirren is a lock for actress.