I left a few blank where I couldn't locate who would be nominated. I also only have 4 BP nominees right now. I can't decide on the 5th.

Dreamgirls, 13 noms

Best Picture, David Geffen
Best Director, Bill Condon
Best Supporting Actor, Eddie Murphy
Best Supporting Actress, Jennifer Hudson
Best Screenplay Adapted, Bill Condon
Best Cinematography, Tobias Schliessler
Best Editing, Virginia Katz
Best Costume Design, Sharen Davis
Best Art Direction, Tomas Voth
Best Sound
Best Song
Best Song
Best Song

Flags of our Fathers, 11 noms

Best Picture, Steven Spielberg
Best Director, Clint Eastwood
Best Screenplay Adapted, William Broyles Jr and Paul Haggis
Best Cinematography, Tom Stern
Best Editing, Joel Cox
Best Costume Design, Deborah Hopper
Best Art Direction, Adrian Gorton
Best Make-Up
Best Sound
Best Sound Effects Editing
Best Score, Clint Eastwood

The Departed, 8 noms

Best Picture, Brad Grey
Best Director, Martin Scorsese
Best Actor, Matt Damon
Best Supporting Actor, Jack Nicholson
[s]Best Supporting Actress, Vera Farmiga[/s]
Best Screenplay Adapted, William Monahan
Best Cinematography, Michael Ballhaus
Best Editing, Thelma Schoonmaker
Best Score, Howard Shore

Little Miss Sunshine, 5 noms

Best Picture, Albert Berger
Best Supporting Actor, Alan Arkin
Best Supporting Actress, Abigail Breslin
Best Screenplay Original, Michael Arndt
Best Score, Devotchka

All of my other disagreements aside...

DiCaprio will get a nom for The Departed. More likely than Farmiga.

I thought about it, decided it's Jack movie, and tossed DiCaprio's nom chances to Blood Diamond.

They'll both get noms. The Departed is more likely to sweep acting noms than The Blood Diamond just getting a random nom for DiCaprio. Moreover, all reviews praise him here.

Wouldn't be the first time a Zwick film produced an acting nomination. But more importantly, Departed is getting two acting noms. And the Supporting Actress cat is weaker than Lead Actor.

Pitt, Damon, Whitaker, O'Toole, Luke, Lead Actor is on fire. DiCaprio could easily be overlooked in favor of others.

Pitt is supporting

I disagree in a few areas, but can at least admit they are all possible EXCEPT:

Your notion that somehow Little Miss Sunshine will get nominated for Best Picture. It's already out of the buzz loop, and feels like it opened a year ago. And from what I've read it mostly has a "it's cute, but not magnificent" reaction. It certainly does not feel weighty enough to be a Best Picture film.

Any other award, maybe, but Best Picture, noooope.

PEACE, Mike.

I used the following information for LMS

box office
critical response
2003 Sideways nomination - 5 noms/1 win
2002 Lost in Translation nomination - 4 noms/1 win

I only expect 1 win for LMS for Best Original Screenplay.

caught that (Kris Tapley).

I was pretty close after now having seen the film. I'm switching out Farmiga (her role was zzzzzzz). But not for DiCaprio but Damon.

I understand where all that lead actor talk for Jack came from. He was a lead for 75% of the film.

Thats gonna be lame if Dreamgirls ends up with the most nominations thanks to getting 3 in song.

Cross out one song for Dreamgirls and give it to Eastwood for his song in Flags, it's gonna happen. Then Dreamgirls will get split votes thus resulting in Eastwood winning

Some things in LMS's favor:

1) It's Fox Searchlight's only horse, so they will push for it.
2) There's often a pre-fall nominee, and this is one of the likeliest.
3) DVD release date not announced yet, if they release it in December it will be back in the buzz loop again.
4) It will get both a SAG nom and GG nom, even if it misses out on DGA.
5) It stars award-friendly actors that may have many friends in the Academy. Toni Collette, Greg Kinnear, Alan Arkin are all former Oscar nominees, which means that they could get their friends to vote for the film. Plus I don't know how much Oscar voters overlap with TV Emmy voters but Steve Carell, Mary Lynn Rajskub, and Bryan Cranston could get people who work in both industries to vote for LMS as well.
6) There is precedence of non-weighty films being nominated like The Full Monty, Sideways, Chicago, Finding Neverland, Shakespeare in Love, Four Weddings and a Funeral, etc. And I don't think you've seen the film, MikeQ., but it does cover a bunch of serious topics as well (which I won't go into due to spoilers possiblities)
7) This movie is very appealing/highly-rated to older demographics, which constitutes most of the voting body. It is also highly rated among the female demographic, whereas a lot of other Oscar contenders this year (besides Dreamgirls) are more male-friendly. (http://us.imdb.com/title/tt0449059/ratings)


So a nomination shouldn't be ruled out completely.

I need to rethink Flags.

lol

You're a Karl Pilkington fan, loyal?

And the Gervais podcast?

Beyond a fan, though I didn't have the chance to listen to the Xfm show.

I became hooked when The Guardian started with the free podcasts and rest is history. Karl, Stephen, Ricky, all absolutely brill.

I think LMS will be nominted as well. It had great fan support, critic support and it is still quite fresh in everyone's minds.

Having seen the film, my Dreamgirls picks were dead on.

I could see Beyonce squeezing out a Best Actress nom. I would need to wait to see what the critics say about her performance. It would still stand at 13 noms, switiching out one song for a Best Actress nomination.

Yes, I'd say so.