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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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 Well...this is what I see happening nominations-wise Borrowing from some of Loyal's threads, this is basically my very early complete predictions breakdown on major categories. Predicting only the nominees now, no winners.
BEST PICTURE
The Departed
The Queen
Flags of Our Fathers
Dreamgirls
United 93
BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
Clint Eastwood (Flags of Our Fathers)
Stephen Frears (The Queen)
Paul Greengrass (United 93)
Pedro Almodovar (Volver)
BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed)
Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)
Peter O'Toole (Venus)
Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness)
Matt Damon (The Good Shepherd)
BEST ACTRESS
Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)
Kate Winslet (Little Children)
Helen Mirren (The Queen)
Penelope Cruz (Volver)
Renee Zellweger (Miss Potter)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jack Nicholson (The Departed)
Mark Wahlberg (The Departed)
Brad Pitt (Babel)
Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine)
Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
Vera Farmiga (The Departed)
Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine)
Cate Blanchett (Babel or Notes on Scandal)
Diane Lane (Hollywoodland)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Volver
The Queen
Little Miss Sunshine
Babel
Stranger than Fiction
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Departed
Little Miss Sunshine
The Good German
Flags of Our Fathers
Dreamgirls
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Fri Oct 20, 2006 11:30 am |
 
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MikeQ.
The French Dutch Boy
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:28 pm
Posts: 10266
Location: Mordor, Middle Earth
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United 93 seems to be the most iffy one in your predictions, but it's entirely possibly. Once the critics groups and their awards and top 10 lists start coming out, United 93 will be gaining a lot of steam there.
PEACE, Mike.
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| Fri Oct 20, 2006 1:19 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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As far as the nominations breakdown for BP nominees...
The Departed:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Editing
Best Score
Best Cinematography
Total: 10 nominations
Dreamgirls:
Best Picture
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Song
Best Sound
Best Costume Design
Best Art Direction
Best Editing
Total: 9 nominations
United 93:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Cinematography
Best Editing
Total: 4 nominations
The Queen:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Original Screenplay
Best Make Up
Total: 5 nominations
Flags of Our Fathers:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Score
Best Editing
Best Sound
Best Sound Editing
Total: 8 nominations
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Fri Oct 20, 2006 2:01 pm |
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android
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 7:44 am
Posts: 2913
Location: Portugal
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4 acting noms for The Departed? Well, I guess it's possible... kind of... 
I so wanted Meryl to move to supporting... meh...
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| Fri Oct 20, 2006 2:07 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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android wrote: 4 acting noms for The Departed? Well, I guess it's possible... kind of... I so wanted Meryl to move to supporting... meh... Well if Chicago could get four and The Aviator could get three...why not? Usually only two or three of them will appear on most list...then there is a third/fourth surprising nominee. Like Alan Alda who didn't appear anywhere before being nominated for The Aviator or Clint Eastwood who got a nom for M$B pretty much out of nowhere. Nicholson and DiCaprio are close to locks as of now (Nicholson himself is actually a lock). Wahlberg is being praised in almost every single review...and I expect Vera Farmiga to sneak in because the category is incredibly weak. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Fri Oct 20, 2006 2:10 pm |
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Raffiki
Forum General
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:14 am
Posts: 9966
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Honestly, I've always sort of thought United 93 really has no chance at a Best Picture nomination. I don't know why.... but it just doesn't strike me as something the Academy will be overly excited about.
That being said, the race this year is not among many contenders and United 93 is one of the few movies this year with stellar raves.
Still, I think a movie like Little Children or Babel could gain considerable steam from critics awards and what not and end up taking the last spot.
I'd say Dreamgirls is still up for discussion as well, but I still have heard really nothing about the film to say whether or not it has potential.
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Top Movies of 2009
1. Hurt Locker / 2. (500) Days of Summer / 3. Sunshine Cleaning / 4. Up / 5. I Love You, Man
Top Anticipated 2009
1. Nine
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| Fri Oct 20, 2006 2:34 pm |
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android
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 7:44 am
Posts: 2913
Location: Portugal
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Best Picture:
Babel
Little Children (iffy, because of its box-office gross so far...)
Flags of Our Fathers
The Queen
The Departed
alt: Volver
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| Fri Oct 20, 2006 3:17 pm |
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Johnny Dollar
The Lubitsch Touch
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:48 pm
Posts: 11019
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Mark Wahlberg? Nah.
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| Fri Oct 20, 2006 3:39 pm |
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Johnny Dollar
The Lubitsch Touch
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:48 pm
Posts: 11019
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Mark Wahlberg? Nah.
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| Fri Oct 20, 2006 3:39 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Little Children's box-office really won't bring it far enough. I don't see it passing $5-6 million before the announcement of nominations.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Fri Oct 20, 2006 3:44 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40500
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Eh, it's not doing THAT bad. There's a lot worse things than a $17,000 PTA. I'm sure with Kate Winslet and Jennifer Connely, it'll have more than 5 mil total in a couple months... Even if it didn't, In the Bedroom had no problem getting nominated with a deathly low gross either.
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| Fri Oct 20, 2006 3:55 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Shack wrote: Eh, it's not doing THAT bad. There's a lot worse things than a $17,000 PTA. I'm sure with Kate Winslet and Jennifer Connely, it'll have more than 5 mil total in a couple months... Even if it didn't, In the Bedroom had no problem getting nominated with a deathly low gross either. It was not that low by the time of nominations, if my memory serves me right and I also would say that In the Bedroom has significantly better reviews http://www.metacritic.com/video/titles/ ... %20bedroom
$17,000 PTA in 5 theatres is fairly bad considering I expect The Queen to have around $15,000 in its fourth weekend in 99 theatres... New Line is dropping the ball on Little Children right now. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Fri Oct 20, 2006 3:58 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40500
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http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2001/BEDRM.php
When the ballots were mailed out, it had about $2.4 million.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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| Fri Oct 20, 2006 4:05 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Hm, well, it was released over a month later. Little Children should have around $5 million or so at that point. But as I said, it definitely does not have the reviews.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Fri Oct 20, 2006 4:07 pm |
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Anonymous
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you convinced me to take Vera Farmiga off and now you have her. 
good list, though too many nods for Departed and too few for Dreamgirls.
Oh and there's no fuckin' way UA93 is being nominated.
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| Fri Oct 20, 2006 6:36 pm |
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neo_wolf
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:19 pm
Posts: 11029
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Marky Mark wont be nominated, i am sure of it.
Last edited by neo_wolf on Fri Oct 20, 2006 10:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Fri Oct 20, 2006 9:18 pm |
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MikeQ.
The French Dutch Boy
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:28 pm
Posts: 10266
Location: Mordor, Middle Earth
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Dr. Lecter wrote: I also would say that In the Bedroom has significantly better reviews I wouldn't say that In the Bedroom had "significantly" better reviews.
In the Bedroom
Metacritic: 86
RT Overall: 94%, 7.9
RT COTC: 90%, 7.6
Little Children
Metacritic: 76
RT Overall: 86%, 7.6
RT COTC: 91%, 7.8
Overall, it's not a huge difference; Little Children even seems to be hitting the most respected written publications better.
PEACE, Mike.
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| Fri Oct 20, 2006 9:45 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22198
Location: Places
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most critics feel marky stole da show from leo jack n matt.....
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Fri Oct 20, 2006 11:37 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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loyalfromlondon wrote: you convinced me to take Vera Farmiga off and now you have her. good list, though too many nods for Departed and too few for Dreamgirls. Oh and there's no fuckin' way UA93 is being nominated. Eh, I don't feel Vera Farmiga still, but I had to fill out the category which appears to me the weakest since years. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sat Oct 21, 2006 5:52 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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MikeQ. wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: I also would say that In the Bedroom has significantly better reviews I wouldn't say that In the Bedroom had "significantly" better reviews. In the Bedroom Metacritic: 86 RT Overall: 94%, 7.9 RT COTC: 90%, 7.6 Little Children Metacritic: 76 RT Overall: 86%, 7.6 RT COTC: 91%, 7.8 Overall, it's not a huge difference; Little Children even seems to be hitting the most respected written publications better. PEACE, Mike. 4 100 scores at MC vs. 12 100 scores at MC. That is a huge difference. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sat Oct 21, 2006 5:54 am |
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Anonymous
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excel wrote: most critics feel marky stole da show from leo jack n matt..... yeah and Fat Bastard stole the show in The Spy Who Shagged Me.
Point being, Marky Mark was way way overtop in a film populated by over the top caricatures. The AMPAS isn't that daft.
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| Sat Oct 21, 2006 7:56 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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loyalfromlondon wrote: excel wrote: most critics feel marky stole da show from leo jack n matt..... yeah and Fat Bastard stole the show in The Spy Who Shagged Me. Point being, Marky Mark was way way overtop in a film populated by over the top caricatures. The AMPAS isn't that daft. Fat Bastard was lame, though. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sat Oct 21, 2006 8:12 am |
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SHAFT_18S
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Sun Oct 22, 2006 1:06 pm
Posts: 76
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Heres what i see
BP:
the Departed
United 93
Dreamgirls
The Queen
Babel
the rest too early to tell
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| Sun Oct 22, 2006 3:53 pm |
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SHAFT_18S
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Sun Oct 22, 2006 1:06 pm
Posts: 76
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winner of course being The Departed with a BO gross of 133 mil damn that'l be sweet
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| Sun Oct 22, 2006 3:56 pm |
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neo_wolf
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:19 pm
Posts: 11029
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Imo flags is out of the BP race.
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| Sun Oct 22, 2006 5:03 pm |
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