"Diane Lane could generate strong supporting actress Oscar buzz as Toni Mannix, the studio exec's aging but still beautiful wife who not only bedded Reeves but bought him his fashionable home. Lane is a heady mixture of rattled hope and outright hysteria. There's not a scene she's in she doesn't steal." - Journal-Constitution

You know what film Hollywoodland reminds me of in terms of Oscars and such?

The Constant Gardener

The release dates are very similar (Gardener was released a week earlier), both got decent reviews (Gardener a bit better), both released by Focus Features and both might end up with Best Sup. Actress nominees.

Hollywoodland won't gross as much as The Constant Gardener though. I could easily see it getting shut out, but the supporting actress category is weak, and the reviews for Lane (even though again, not nearly as strong as Rachel Weisz last year) look good enough for a nomination.

I've been reading all of the bad reviews, and they are all pretty consistant about Lane. That last quote that I posted above was actually from a negative review. The nominations Lane got for the poorly reviewed Unfaithful shows just how much respect she has among her peers.

The Constant Gardener wasn't quite huge either with $33 million and I think Hollywoodland will pass $20 million, so the difference won't be big anyway.

I may be on the Jennifer Hudson bandwagon, but I honestly have doubts about her actually winning. Everybody should really watch out for Jill Clayburgh. She was nominated twice in the late 70's and early 80's without winning. She's been pretty much out of the picture for a while, working in TV some. Running With Scissors will be a big comeback for her and the Academy eats stuff like that up. That was one of the main reasons Diane Lane got nominated for Unfaithful a few years ago.

The author of Running With Scissors also mentioned Clayburgh along with Annette Bening when talking about the movie, that they deserve or will win Oscars, something like that.

I'd also count Jennifer Connelly out for Little Children. She's been in a lot of early predictions, but reviews have said her part is underwritten.

Diane Lane - Hollywoodland
Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls
Jill Clayburgh - Running With Scissors
Sharon Stone - Bobby
Rinku Kikuchi - Babel (my wild shot )




Alternates: Angelina Jolie (The Good Shepherd), Demi Moore (Bobby)

As of now:

Diane Lane
Jennifer Hudson
Demi Moore
Abigail Breslin
Meryl Streep (if she goes supporting) or Annette Benning

Meryl has been confirmed as Lead, and according to Kris Tapley, Annette is as well.

Jon, that stuff CHANGES. While Meryl might be going for lead "now" campaigning hasn't even begun yet and she could easily decide to go supporting. That kind of thing happens all the time. They'll go supporting if the field is weak and lead is strong. The role can go either way.

Since listening to the leaked song several times from Dreamgirls, I think we have to start (gulp!) considering (double gulp!) that Jennifer Hudson will lead her pack.

If she's able to inject that type of raw emotion into her acting, I don't see the handicap in giving her the Oscar. Underdog stories sell. And having millions of young people and AI fans tuning into the Oscars certainly isn't a bad thing.

Just because someone can sing doesn't mean they can act.

I mean... for every Beyonce... there's a Kelly Clarkson... or Britney Spears...

Still, you trying to play "Daring predictor" by predicting two actresses that as of now are confirmed makes you look stupid, not daring. Maybe you should just, I dunno, try having your predicting go with the way things are now?

My predictions:

Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Angelina Jolie, The Good Shepard
Carmen Maura, Volver
Julie Walters, Driving Lessons

After reading Running With Scissors, I think Annette can very easily win. The role is so so meaty, and there isn't much competition anyways. Miller and Beyonce/Hudson are darkhorses, Blanchett is in there though I don't think they'd give her another Supporting oscar so soon. I'll say:

Annette Bening, Running With Scissors
Sienna Miller, Factory Girl
Cate Blanchett, Babel
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandel
Beyonce(alt. Jennifer Hudson), Dreamgirls

Not feeling Abigail Breslin.

Saw you added Hudson. I don't think Beyonce is going for supporting.

Unless the movie flops both critically and at the box office, Benning should have this in the bag I agree. At least from this moment, there really isn't anyone who can put up a more convincing potential on paper.

With mediocre early reviews, I now don't see a nomination for Bening. Feel like another Family Stone.

Andaroo called that this film will be another The Family Stone ever since the first trailer was released, heh.

It's not hard to see why, the film looks like a mess.

Rinku Kikuchi, Babel (or Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine, can't see three first time nominees
Vera Farmiga, The Departed
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Diane Lane, Hollywoodland
Someone who hasn't gotten any hype thusfar.

Best Supporting Actress...

Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, The Good German
Vera Farmiga, The Departed
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Angelina Jolie, The Good Shepherd

Rinku Kikuchi was amazing in Babel (Despite me not liking the movie).

After having just seen Bobby (grade: C), I can't see any possible way that Sharon Stone won't be winning the Oscar, no matter how good Jennifer Hudson is in Dreamgirls. I'd say she is as much a lock for the win as Scorcese for Best Director. It'd be funny if she wins the Oscar and the Razzie (for Basic Instinct 2) in the same year.

That would be a first, right? And even those who hated/didn't like Bobby loved Sharon Stone's performance, so that's a good sign


I always loved her...

The possibility of winning the Oscar and the Razzie in the same year is becoming very real indeed... (and there's a first time for everything, afterall...):


" . . . Demi Moore as a drunken lounge singer, and Sharon Stone as the hotel beautician. All are superb. I would say Stone is a revelation, but her acting chops have always been superior; too often in the tall shadow of her glamour. Here she allows herself to look startlingly harsh. Free of vanity, she walks off with the movie. Her scene with Moore is one of the most compelling interplays between two mature leading ladies I've ever seen." (I totally agree btw - she's always been underrated because of some of her choices)

Liz Smith, New York Post

__________

Roger Friedman, eheh:

"Her performance in "Bobby," Emilio Estevez's film about the day Robert F. Kennedy was assassinated in Los Angeles at the Ambassador Hotel, is going to win her Oscar and Golden Globe nominations. Sharon plays the hotel's hairdresser, who is also married to hotel manager, played by William H. Macy. In many ways, she is the anchor of the multiple-character drama, and she does her job with unexpected skill. "


"Stone nearly steals the movie with an understated turn as a hotel hairdresser. It’s the best work she’s ever done and should get her lots of award attention. Put her now on the short list for Best Supporting Actress ..."


_____________

"The upcoming movie Bobby will remind everyone (including, we hope, Oscar) that she's an amazing actress."

By James Patrick Herman Senior Entertaiment Editor
In Style Magazine.

_____________

"The cast are uniformly terrific, but stand-outs include Stone, Moore (their scene together is fantastic)..."


Matthew Turner, ViewLondon

_____________

"Standouts are Stone and, surprisingly enough, Lohan. Both add raw emotional resonance to their complex characters and involving stories."


Rich Cline, Shadows on the Wall

I feel like they're going to have to nominate Bobby for something, and I think it's best chance is probably a Best Supporting Actress nomination fore Sharon Stone.