Brian Cox - Running With Scissors
Jack Nicholson - The Departed
Jackie Earle Haley - Little Children
Brad Pitt - Babel
Adam Beach - Flags of Our Fathers (or someone else from that cast)


Alternates: Ben Affleck (Hollywoodland), Robert Downey Jr. (Fur), James McAvoy(The Last King of Scotland)

Murphy and Nicholson seem to be close to sure bets, after that Tobey has some buzz, after that 2 more spots I guess.

The Departed could get 2 noms in here, Baldwin should get a nom somewhere this season and this might be where it's from (though I'd give the edge to Running with Scissors), there's Damon, and even Wahlberg has been praised as excellent in every review so far, we all know how they like brief scene stealers for these things. Brian Cox is in the race, Alan Arkin from Sunshine, someone from Bobby, it's pretty wide open.

A lot of those contenders could take each other out of the race though. If Baldwin gets it for Running With Scissors, Brian Cox won't, and vice versa. A double nom is the most The Departed can get, so one from that movie will eliminate the others. Baldwin/Cox from Scissors and Alan Arkin might make it hard for each other, since the two are from similar movies. There's some fun situations.

I'm gonna say:
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson, The Departed
Tobey McGuire, The Good German
Alec Baldwin, Running with Scissors
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine

I am rooting for Nicholson here, but I would not mind Murphy up there, simply for the sheer unexpectedness of this (I mean about a year or two ago...who'd have thought?!).

Nicholson winning his 4th (and probably final) Oscar would rock, though.

James McAvoy seems to be as much as a lead in The Last King of Scotland as Forrest Whitaker is, so I won't be surprised if he makes it in.

The movie itself is getting alot of buzz right now, so another actor nomination besides Whitaker and a screenplay nom (ala Hotel Rwanda) seem completely plausible...


and it could go even further, like Capote did last year... I don't think it has the steam of that movie to go that far, but it's definitely going to be one of the most (if not THE most) critically acclaimed movies of the year

As of now:

Brad Pitt (I should just go ahead and put him in my sig...)
Jack Nicholson
Tobey Maguire
Eddie Murphy
Joe Pesci

Wouldn't that be a super lineup?

I posted this in the Actor thread, but I thought I'd post it here too: Sasha Stone is putting Nicholson in her Lead Actor predicts.

Does he really have enough momentum to steal yet another oscar from poor Peter?

:swing:

These kinds of things are the exact reason I question Sasha's reasoning and realized Oscarwatch.com wasn't the best source of accurate reporting. It's a fun fan site, though. Jack's not going lead. Everything I've read says it's not a leading role.

Well, the site has been around for 5 years, been quoted in a couple major publications, helped launch a writer to the big time. . .

I agree putting Nicholson in Lead won't happen ands Sasha is probably just trying to start conversation, but it's hardly a reason to degrade the site.

:swing:

Plenty of uncredible sources have been around for 5 years, quoted in major publications, and so on... Doesn't mean they know much. I've seen bias and personal feelings rule the thinking in place of logic. That's not "evil" or anything, so you don't have to keep getting defensive, but it also has to be taken for what it is. Ben Affleck used to be listed as Best Actor there. Any bafoon with one working eye and ear should have known not to list him as a lead, but Oscarwatch did. Those things give off an "unprofessional" vibe.

Having decided to try out Nicholson in Lead for a little bit, my new predictions are:

Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Michael Caine, Children of Men
Tobey Maguire, The Good German
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Brad Pitt, Babel

IMO, Mark Wahlberg really deserves a nom for The Departed....he gave an excellent performance.

I completely agree!!

hell yes!!!!

I'm wondering if The Departed can get 2 noms here... Godfathers got 3 each time, so it wouldn't be that astronomical. Running With Scissors is getting ok reviews, so Cox and Baldwin will have a hard time. I'm thinking Wahlberg has a chance, deservingly.

Jack Nicholson, The Departed
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Brad Pitt, Babel
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

So, where did all this Marky Mark talk string from?

His performance speaks for itself, it doesn't need any bloggers/studio created hype to say that it's a ferocious turn.

Isn't that a little...hopeful?

In a sea of over the top performances, Wahlberg's was the most adrift.

KJ <3 Marky Mark, I havnt seen this much love for his performance anywhere else. I thought he was the most surprising performance, cause I didnt really go in expecting much from him, but I mean he isnt a stand out or anything of that matter, he's great almost everytime he's on screen but it's not as if it just screams out OSCAR and so far he hasnt gotten much press for his performance, he obviously got overshadowed by DiCaprio, Damon, and Nicholson.

His performance in this gives me that Dirk Digler over the top cheesy vibe, which wouldnt work in many films but is perfect for something like Departed.

I thought you meant why people here have been talking about his performance, not why he'd actually get a nom, heh.

Anyone think James McAvoy has a chance for The Last King of Scotland? He was fantastic in it.

With Nicholson going supporting afterall, what do you think are his chances to win?

Currently, he's by far the frontrunner. Legandary actor, big role, hit movie, Scorsese's track record with acting wins (His films have won in every acting catagory). But still, the catagory is so insanely crowded (The only catagory right now where I'm paining myself to pick and choose who stays, not who fills the empty spots) that anything with enough support could top him.

If Forest Whitaker went supporting I'd say they'd just give it to him.

But assuming h's going lead makes the race quite interesting.

I'm doubting Pitt can win now for Babel and so far, Jack is the front-runner. Eddie Murphy could surprise but with everything Dreamgirls related, I'm still waiting till we get closer to see the reality of the situation.