This was inspired by Maverikk's signature

The question is simple. What do you consider to be locks at this point? Not just something that has a great chance or will likely get in, but what do you consider absolute surefire nominees at this very point?

It doesn't matter what category either. Not only the major ones.


These I consider to be locks as of now (and I am being rather cautious):

Best Picture

The Departed

Best Director

Martin Scorsese (The Departed)

Best Actor

Peter O'Toole (Venus)
Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)

Best Actress

Helen Mirren (The Queen)
Kate Winslet (Little Children)
Penelope Cruz (Volver)

Best Supporting Actress

none

Best Supporting Actor

Jack Nicholson (The Departed)

Best Original Screenplay

Little Miss Sunshine

Best Adapted Screenplay

Little Children
The Departed

Best Animated Feature

Cars

Best Documentary:

An Inconvenient Truth

Best Foreign Picture

Volver

Best Visual Effects

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
(note: Superman Returns is very very close to a lock, but after last year's nom for Narnia I am sure about nothing)

Best Art Direction:

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Best Editing

The Departed

Best Cinematography:

United 93

Best Costume Design:

Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette

Best Make-Up:

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Don't really care about the "Sound" categories and don't know enough about foreign submissions yet.

The only lock is that Dreamgirls will not be nominated for Best Picture. I guarantee it!

diane lane as supporting actress.

WTF.

That's not a lock.

I agree on these:

Actor:
Peter O'Toole
Forest Whitaker

Actress:
Helen Mirren
Kate Winslet
Penelope Cruz

Otherwise, the only thing I'd call a lock is one of the following getting a BP nom:
Departed
Volver
Flags

I'd have her up there if not for the dismal box-office and the early release of the film.

Best Picture

The Departed
Dreamgirls
Flags of our Father
Little Miss Sunshine
(that's right, only one slot up for grabs)

Best Director

Bill Condon
Clint Eastwood
Clint Eastwood
Martin Scorsese

Best Actor

Peter O'Toole (Venus)
Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)

Best Actress

Helen Mirren (The Queen)
Penelope Cruz (Volver)

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)

Best Supporting Actor

Jack Nicholson (The Departed)
Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)

Best Original Screenplay
Little Miss Sunshine

Best Animated Feature

Cars
Flushed Away
Over The Hedge

Best Song
Dreamgirls
Dreamgirls
Dreamgirls

Will you post a video of you eating something gross for each of these that won't happen?

Also, um, Winslet?

I think United 93 has a better chance at an editing nom than cinematography.

I'd add Meryl Streep to Best Actress. I know it's weird to have 4 locks in one category at this early stage, but very difficult to see any of them miss.

Also Abigail Breslin for Little Miss Sunshine is near impossible to miss a nom.

Brad Pitt is a lock whichever category he is put in.

Departed should be a lock for editing and cinematography, unless the reviews suddenly take a sharp turn.

Marie-Antoinette is lock for Costume Design, even if the reviews turn out to be even more brutal.

Dreamgirls is a lock for Art Direction.

I wouldn't be comfortable saying anything is a lock at this point. Shit changes so fast. Except Helen Mirren and probably Peter O'Toole.

Dreamgirls can't miss if it has the goods, but hey, it could be a disappointment.

I am so very close to putting up Streep on there, but having four locks at this stage is really weird and this is anything, but an Oscar-y role. Personally, I am convinced she'll get in.

Forgot about The Departed's editing. Not sure about cinematography, but it'll definitely get an editing nom.

Forest Whitaker is a lock. Definitely. So is Cars for animated and Pirates for most technicals.. No denying that

I will eat something gross if

Dreamgirls isn't nominate for BP
UA93 is nominated for BP

Best Actress is the category with the most safe bets...

Penelope Cruz, Volver
Meryl Streep, The Devi Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

Ashley Judd, Bug, and Annette Bening, Running with Scissors, also have great shots.

There aren't too many others. I'm not sure about Peter O'Toole, Venus, for Best Actor. He might get passed over if the film doesn't do much at the box office.

I'd say Pedro Almodovar has a great, great shot at a Best Director nom. He's getting incredible reviews for Volver and it seems more accessible than Bad Education.

It makes no sense to not have Meryl Streep as a lock for Best Actress, especially when you have three other locks in there already. She is more of a lock than any of the other "locks" in Best Actress (Helen Mirren may have peaked too early and could get forgotten, Kate Winslet could pull a Ralph Fiennes (though not likely), and Penelope Cruz doesn't have much respect among the acting community compared to other potential nominees.

All other categories look great.

Looking forward to it.

Best Picture:

The Departed
The Prestige
Little Miss Sunshine

Those are L-O-C-K-S

Best Picture
Babel


Best Director
Alejandro Gonzalez Iñarritu, Babel
Pedro Almodóvar, Volver

(two latins who are pratically locked - yes, it's possible)


Best Actor
Peter O'Toole
Forest Whitaker



Best Actress
Helen Mirren
Penelope Cruz
Kate Winslet (even though she's losing steam apparently... )


Best Supporting Actor
Jack Nicholson (I just can't see him miss at this point)


Best Original Screenplay
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
Volver


Best Adapted Screenplay
Little Children



Best Animated Feature
Cars
Over the Hedge


Best Original Score
I don't see any locks so far - John Williams hasn't composed anything for this year, right? ... too bad Lady in the Water was so badly received, otherwise James Newton Howard would definitely receive its 7th nomination and would probably win this time, since he hasn't won yet...


...on the other hand, Thomas Newman composed Little Children and he's in the exact same situation as Howard (6 noms and no wins), so he's pratically a lock to win if nominated...?


Best Editing
Babel
The Departed


Best Cinematography
Babel



Best Costume Design
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette


Best Art Direction
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest


Best Visual Effects
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Superman Returns


Best Make-up
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Best Original Song
Bobby

Nope, its not.

I don't think any major category has a lock. Maybe some of the special effects ones, and for some reason I think for best song we'll see something from either Dreamgirls or (wishful thinking) Idlewild.

That about it.

What a tough year to anticipate anything.

Babel just seems too "Crash"-y to miss it - even more than Bobby, which should face a harsher critical reception than Babel...

By no means is Babel a lock right now. This is for locks, not for predictions

I think people here are in general over analyzing. I mean, no BP nom for Flags or Departed or Dreamgirls. That makes little sense and there's no way to back it up. Scorsese and Eastwood's last two films were both nominated for BP, stands to reason these two will be nominated. And everything that has been released thus far screams BP nom for Dreamgirls.

I also agree that it's a lock that Dreamgirls WON'T be nominated for BP.

You, Zing, and everyone else betting against a Dreamgirls nom is on fuckin' crack.

I don't mind listening to your reasonings, but no one has given any outside of "I don't like Black people" or "Beyonce suxs".

O'Toole and Whittaker

Winslet, Mirren, Cruz, Streep

Martin Scorsece

The rest I don't care about for now.