I think Inarritu and Scorsece are definitley the top 2 right now, I actually can't really see anybody else challenging them.

Eastwood definitley won't win, and I'm not feeling Condon either, Flags or Dreamgirls both seem like big time possibilities for the split win.

Soderberg is a wildcard, depends on how well the movie does. Not sure about them giving him another Oscar though, he needs to get more consistent to give him 2 Oscars.

For noms I see:
Scorsece
Inarritu
Condon
Eastwood
Field

Totally opposite in my book.

Scorsese isnt winning for a gangster/crime flick ( though could easily be nominated even without Departed getting a nod for best picture ) and Inarritu is more like a 4th or 5th spot filler.

Clint Eastwood
Bill Condon
Werner Herzog ( Herzog finally with a mainstream film, it's time for him to get his due)
Christopher Nolan ( another one that will surprise people )
Martin Scorcesse

Other hopefuls - Paul Greengrass ( I dont know what kinda of push will be seeing for U93 ) Alejandro González Iñárritu ( Babel is getting great early word, but I dont think it's anything to go overboard about ) and Todd Field.

Atleast two of those directors wont even have their movies in the best picture category, might be thinking outside the box, but hopefully thats just the type of award season will have.

The Prestige and Rescue Dawn aren't going anywhere this oscar season...

Sure they can, especially with plenty of movies not living up to oscar calibur hype that they were going for.

Best picture nods? That will be a tough climb, but they got a damn good shot at director, acting, and technical awards.

Rescue Dawn hasn't been getting very good buzz, but whose to say The Prestige won't be great? I'm not listing it as an Oscar contender so far only because we know so little about it. But it certainly has the credentials and potential to be one of the big dogs if it's as good as any of Nolan's other films. I'm actually kinda shocked so many people seem to think it doesn't have any shot this year.

Variety
Chud
Planet Sick-Boy
RT

So far so good for Dawn.

Prestige was written off due to the type of film it is, but I think the quality of it and the fact that some films have failed to get the buzz they wanted to get will lead to Prestige doing better then expected come award season.

Yeah, I was going to say that. There has been a very positive change in the Rescue Dawn buzz lately.

Paul Greengrass
Martin Scorsese (another losing year for him)
Clint Eastwood
Bill Condon
Pedro Almodovar

Just curious, who do you think will beat him? Won't be Eastwood, won't be Almodovar as Volver isn't a big dog, probably not Greengrass, so... Condon?

eastwood could very well win....

Especially if Flags of Our Fathers is judged to be as good as - if not better than - Unforgiven, Mystic River or Million Dollar Baby.

Y'know, if The Departed passes 100 million and gets 85%+ on RottenTomatoes, I think Scorsese would win Best Director unless something else REALLY broke out.

Yeah. I used to think "No way in hell," but juding by the slow whittling down of the field (already Copolla is clearly out) he actually may be a wild card for Volver. This could be interesting, and no doubt part of the rallying point of the whole Viva Pedro festival that will be running across US theatres over the next couple months. They've really thrown all their cards on the table for Volver, imo.

Seeing the lists of directors here really drives home how weak the director's slate is this year. With 4 Best Picture/Director splits within the last 9 years, it certainly is possible for Scorcese to get the win finally.

btw, why is Robert De Niro being left out of ppl's lists again?

I see him as a real contender, I'm warming up to this movie, I liked the stills released for it. I just wish they'd release a trailer so we can make some sort of judgement about it other than just hoping.

The only way that Eastwood doesn't get in is if Flags and Letters both suck, especially if Flags sucks. Does he have a real shot at winning? Sure does. Clint Eastwood is an American institution. He's a screen hero of almost 50 years! (going back to his Rawhide days as Rowdy Yates) He's loved, admired, and cherished in the industry. You heard Babs when she handed him his Million Dollar Baby Oscar. "I'm so happy to give this to you, Clint." He's got legends looking at him as a legend.

Reese Witherspoon was on the Tonight Show back when she was doing the circuit for Walk the Line, and she remarked that there is something about Clint Eastwood that reduces grown men to little boys. She was referring to her husband, Ryan Phillippe, who is in Flags of Our Fathers.

He's said to be a joy to work for/with if you're an actor. He's won Oscars for Gene Hackman, Morgan Freeman, Sean Penn, Hilary Swank, and Tim Robbins, and has gotten nominations for Meryl Streep, himself, and Marcia Gay Harden. He's in demand in Hollywood, as everybody wants to work with him. He's a producers wet dream, as he brings his movies in under budget and ahead of schedule, also trimming down on the editing, as he shoots so lean.

The only faction in the AMPAS that he's not strongly affliated with is the FX people, and they aren't so large of a contingent.

Flags has a good chance of bringing an actor revelation to the forefront. It's definitely bound to get lots of attention from everybody. It CAN'T be ignored. Eastwood, who's last two films have been Oscar films, Haggis, who's written the last two best picture winners (marvelous writer!), and Spielberg, who is the most accomplished filmmaker ever. It's not only a war picture, but looks to be an "American spirit" film with feel good moments and tragic moments.

With all that going for it, it would be a slap in the face for them not to select him if he makes a worthy film and companion film. The ambition alone is too much to disrespect. He's even involved in the score again. He does 3 times more than people half his age. It's very hard to believe that Eastwood won't receive a nomination, and knowing the quality filmmaker, production companies involved, awards campaign experience, and screenwriter, not only is Eastwood positioned to get a nomination, but an unprecedented win if he pulls off a masterpiece. He might just have to be "good" to get a nom.

That's his biggest hurdle. Expectations are so high for this, that people could view it harshly if it's not as good as they'd hoped. This is a very real possibility, much moreso than it "sucking". The amitious project might be too much weight for one man to carry, even the great Clint Eastwood.

I don't know, but there are two things that I am thinking...

Whatever wins this year, will win Director and Picture.

When Scorsese finally wins it'll be Director/Picture as well.

So it might be his year, but I am not sure yet.

I think he is certainly in for that 5th spot nom like he used to be for Hable con Ella.

1. He is an acclaimed director and well liked by the Academy (judging by his Best Original Screenplay win) and All about my Mother winning Best Foreign Picture

2. Volver sounds like his most "mainstream" film (for his standards, certainly more mainstream than a gay noir or a love story with a patient in coma).

3. It is already a big international success: http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=i ... volver.htm With many countries ahead, it'll soon become his biggest film box-office-wise (internationally/worldwide)

4. The praise is there

5. This time there is not just Oscar buzz for it as Best Foreign (I assume it will be submitted) and Best Screenplay, but also a lot of buzz for Best Actress. Remember Vera Drake was nominated for Screenplay/Actress/Director. I think something like this can happen here as well.

Heh, I'm thinking the opposite, I think it's likely than not we will get a split this year. Condon's movie will be much less stylistic than Chicago, and that never won either. I think there's a chance that he doesn't even get nominated, depending on how strong the movie itself is. Eastwood won't get a 3rd Oscar, I just don't see it. So I think that if one of those 2 wins Best Picture, we are probably going to get a split. Finally giving Scorsece his prize would seem like the most likely option, he's finally going back to his trademark direction in this movie too, what made people love him, The Departed is like a loveletter to his older movies.

I really dont wanna see him win any other way.

For one, I agree with you.

I was reading this and realized your sig is missing. I was going to add some locks to my sig but now you've changed yours.

Yeah, you agree with me ALOT, you just hide it deep inside, but the temptation to agree with me is getting more and more harder to resist.

I didnt even bold the right sentence.

Oh, I was redoing it because of space reasons, and I haven't finished, so I didn'tt put my sig back up yet. I'll be putting my locks back in.

I would like to see Paul Greengrass nominated for United 93.