Thanks! I'll have to look that one up and read about it. I would pull so hard for Murphy to win!!! I've been an enormous fan of his since he started. I would consider him to be a top 3 all around talent of all time in entertainment, for sure, and I think he could pull off the performance he needed to. He's a good enough screen presence and has been acting for 25 years professionally, so it's not a stretch to believe he's got ability as an actor/performer.

But he's been in Daddy Day Care!

That was oscar worthy compared to Pluto Nash.

Dude hasnt made a good film in i'd say 7 years or so ( unless you count Shrek ), I enjoyed Life and Bowfinger. He doesnt deserve his billions though. He's very charismatic, but other then that, MEH.

So?

They wouldn't be nominating him for Daddy Day Care.

No one deserves to win an Oscar within 10 years of starring in Daddy Day Care. The end.

He was ok in it, I thought.

There are two films that I feel he should have been nominated for in the past. He should have won for his performance in The Nutty Professor! Was there a more challenging part? He pulled those characters off with perfection, and that was the best thing I saw that year. I also thought he was Oscar worthy (for a nomination) for his performance in Life. He's got the chops to pull anything off if the material is good.

I mean not only get nominated but actually should've WON for those performances

I mean that he should have won for Nutty Professor because of the superior performance it took to pull it off. A nomination only for Life. No win.

Ohhhhhhhhhh that makes alot more sense now
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With Eddie Murphy's past in film, if he was going up for lead actor I would say probably not (at least without jumping a lot of hurdles), but people can be a bit more nutty in their choices for supporting, so I don't think his history necessarily plays against him.

Matt Dillon was nominated for Crash in the same year he appeared in Herbie: Fully Loaded. Charlize Theron was nominated for North Country the same year she appeared in Aeon Flux.

triple post

triple post

Hmm, this is a good point about Herbie. However, DDC is far far inferior to Aeon Flux. They at least tried with that one.

Oh and none of the two won anyway.

Murphy is due for at least a career nom, kinda like with Depp and Pirates. He's one of the most recognizable actors of the last 25 years, and was at one point probably the bankable comedian in Hollywood. And critics actually liked him.

I think he's a lock for at least a nomination, assuming Dreamgirls isn't some Producers-esque disaster.

Hollywoodland is moving way down the list, if not completely off. It received not-so-positive reviews from both Variety and The Hollywood Reporter (scored 60 and 50 at metacritic, respectively). The Pianist is the only film I can remember to grab a BP nomination while getting thumbs down from the two, and it had an overall average of 8.2 at RT; Hollywoodland is at 5.8.

This makes Catch a Fire an even stronger contender than before, since Focus will devote sole attention to campaigning it over Hollywoodland.

I really feel as though Factory Girl is gonna surprise, especially if what im hearing about Sienna Miller as Edie Sedgwick and Guy Pearce as Andy Warhol being very oscar worthy, I can see this becoming the small indie film contender.

My post Venice/Toronto rankings:

1. Dreamgirls

No film came out of Venice and Toronto with the kind of revelation that Brokeback Mountain or even Good Night and Good Luck generated, so Dreamgirls remains at the top. Surefire box office hit.

2. Good German

Tobey Maguire's buzz for supporting actor suddenly surged during the last couple of weeks, making me think the early words on Soderbergh's film are at least good. Among the films not shown in the festivals, this feels like the safest bet.

3. United 93

There are so many director candidates for that BP/BD spot (or two), so I don't believe Greengrass will end up being the one. award groups, not just NY/LA/NBR, but more broad ones such as BFCA and GG, will carry the film to a nomination.

4. Babel

Will have critics support, but what about general public? A 7.0 average with 525 votes isn't a great start. Need to score better box office number than 21 Grams.

5. Last King of Scotland

Some are calling it the best of the year. Has the aura of "importance" with historical characters. Has a Best Actor nomination locked up, unlike Don Cheadle, and with an earlier and better-managed campaign than Hotel Rwanda (if it turns out to be the case), it could be enough.

6. The Departed

Good early words, even if there is always that "no chance at BP" sentence somewhere in the review. Great box office potential comparing to other contenders. Tech supports in editing and other categories should be there, and if it can score two acting and director nods, hard to imagine it will miss BP. Will know a lot more soon.

7. Volver

One of the biggest stars of Toronto with Cruz attending. Foreign language is the biggest obstacle. I see Almodóvar and Scorsese as two prime candidates for the lone director spot. Both can make it as well.

8. The Queen

Mirren has locked up a nomination. Strong contender in screenplay and a couple of tech categories as well.
Potentially a crowd pleaser, and that will move it up on the chart.

9. Little Children

The opinions are somewhat divisive on Todd Field's effort. There appears to be a segment in the film that could turn academy voters off. The attentions are more centering around performances.

10. Flags of Our Fathers

I know it's Spielberg + Eastwood + Haggis + WWII, but somehow I just don't feel it. Eastwood is due for a slip, and both Million Dollar Baby and Mystic River are critic-darlings, something I don't see happening with the support that United 93, Little Miss Sunshine, and others have got.

Others
Little Miss Sunshine: its BP chance is pretty much over in correlation with the box office momentum being stopped.
The Good Shepherd: too much unknown, and unlike Eastwood, De Niro has little track record as director.
Bobby: one of the most divisive films of the year. Its chance is fading fast.
Goya's Ghost: no distributor. Don't believe it will be released this year.

United 93
The Good German
Babel
The Last King of Scotland
(another film that isn't Dreamgirls)

Not in that order, but those are the four/five.

My analysis:

1. Babel
2. Flags of Our Fathers
3. Dreamgirls
4. The Departed
5. United 93
6. The Last King of Scotland
7. Little Children
8. The Good German
9. Running With Scissors
10. The Good Shepard
11. The Queen
12. Bobby
13. Factory Girl

God what an awesome lineup.

Babel seems to be the "hottest" movie to me right now, though the top 3 are oh so very close. I have a feeling that it has a better chance of cleaning up in the critics circles than say Dreamgirls, rising up like the Brokeback of this year possibly. The director is strong enough, the cast is big and can headline shows and red carpets, it's only obstacle is box-office I think, but the academy won't be afraid to award a smaller film the prize if Dreamgirls and The Departed are making enough money and headlines to draw in viewers anyways. Inarratu is pretty much a lock for a BD nom, and should be one of the frontrunners for the win, as Flags and Dreamgirls look like solid bets for the split BP/BD-ers if they end up taking the win.

Flags, well I'm just going off paper here, but anyways unlike you I do have faith that the Easthaggisberg machine will deliver a contender, it just seems like too much of a powerful combo to ignore. Nobody has seen it yet, so it's still completley up in the air, but my inching is that it will make it.

Dreamgirls looks like a solid bet, and the reactions have been great, but I'll need a bit more evidence to declare it as more than a fun audience pleaser. I have no doubt that people will like this movie and it'll make a lot of money, but is it Best Picture good? I don't know yet. I also have 0 faith in Condon, just a personal thing, he's reminded me of James Mangold from the beginning. Kinsey as a past project resides in a similar camp as Girl, Interrupted, IMO.

The Departed is the one I'm cheering for, other than Scorsece getting his due, I think a big loud audience movie like this is something that would do the awards good. I have no doubt it'll be a boxoffice hit, so hopefully that'll begin the momentum, and things can be taken from there. I actually think Scorsece has a good chance at winning, if he can pick up enough steam. They won't give it to Eastwood, for obvious reasons. I also don't think they'll give it to Condon, as he's not that special of a director, and Dreamgirls doesn't require much in the direction area anyways(however I'll admit there is a slim chance he pulls it off.) If either of those win BP, I'm guessing that it'll be a BP/BD split more than likely. So that leaves Inarritu vs Scorsece, it could be the former's year if Babel ends up running the show, but if not, would finally giving Marty his due seem like that much of a stretch? Yes, he's up there.

United 93 should push the reviews and importance card to a nom, by a hair. Critics seem to be passionate enough about this movie, the BP without BD seems like a nice slot. No chance at winning anything, even with the director nom, it'll just be a critical darling with not much more. I wish it would miss the show completley, heh, but I see it popping up by a hair.

The Last King of Scotland, I agree with what xiayan said pretty much, the actor steam is there and the movie looks like quality too, like Capote. The competition might be too strong this year though, unlike in that movie's case. I see it duking out with U93 for the last spot when all is said and done, and it should be very close, but for now I'll say United has the upper hand for now.

Little Children isn't getting as much raves as I expected, but it's still should be in there. Best Actress powerhouse and some other nods should put it in the race, outside chance of stealing a nom.

The Good German... I haven't heard enough about it yet, and I don't trust Soderbergh. Will need to be a critical darling as the bo for it is going to suck, I'm expecting good reviews but not raves.

Running With Scissors is the token comedy choice, and I love the cast, but it needs no less than a Sideways reception. Mayyybeeee. Should definitley be a solid bet for screenplay and some supporting nominations though.

The Good Shepard seems like it'll be too long and boring. I suspect the reaction to it will be similar to Syriana's. Ok reviews, a nod or supporting win even, nothing in the BP race.

The Queen has Helen Mirren, but I don't see the movie itself kicking up steam. A better reviewed Ms. Henderson Presents.

Bobby won't get the reviews, Emilio doesn't have enough in the tank for this type of movie.

Factory Girl is still completley unknown and a wildcard, I see possible buzz for Miller and Pierce, the movie itself though... not likely.

If Children of Men had that Sept. 29th release date I'd still include it... For now:

Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
The Good German
United 93

Replace either The Good German or The Departed with Flags of Our Fathers if it gets over 80-85% on RT and over 60 million at the box office.

Here's how I see Flags.

Critics love to humble filmmakers who've had great success in the recent past. Just as much as they love to herald filmmakers who haven't had success in many years.

Simply put, they love to be in control.

If Flags is anything less than one of the best WWII films ever made, they will tear it apart.

That then leads to whether or not Flags is critic proof. It is not.

It's a heavy burden for Eastwood/Haggis/Spielberg to bear. I think they're up to the challenge.

I'm really interested to see how this pans out.

I'm curious as to who's been preaching that Bobby is in trouble? I'm just not seeing it. Sure, I expect the very nature of the film to devide some, but I haven't seen anything alarming at all. Agendas at work, but that's par for the course.

Out of question, was Spielberg really THAT involved with this one?