I know Raffiki does something similar, but this will just be a one time shot before the season starts, rank all the BP gunners from strongest to weakest. This thread can be laughed at later, but it'll be fun.

Mine:
1. Flags of Our Fathers
2. United 93
3. Little Children
4. The Departed
5. Dreamgirls
6. Bobby
7. Hollywoodland
8. The Good German
9. Babel
10. The Good Shepard
11. Running With Scissors
12. Marie Antoinette
13. A Good Year
14. Red Sun, Black Sand
15. The Prestige
16. The Children of Men
17. The Pursuit of Happiness
18. The Fountain
19. Reign O'er Me
20. Volver
21. Bug

1. Flags of Our Fathers
2. The Depared
3. Bobby
4. Dreamgirls
5. Hollywoodland

1. Flags Of Our Fathers
2. Dreamgirls
3. Babel

1. Flags of Our Fathers
2. Dreamgirls
3. Babel
4. Blood Diamond
5. The Good German
6. Hollywoodland
7. Last King of Scottland
8. Bobby
9. Catch a Fire
10. Little Children

1. The Prestige
2. Flags Of Our Fathers
3. The Departed
4. Hollywoodland
5. Babel
6. The Fountain
7. Dreamgirls

I just think three times in 4 years are way too much, even for Eastwood.

1. Dreamgirls
2. Babel
3. The Good Shepard
4. Little Children
5. Goya's Ghosts
6. United 93
7. Flags of Our Fathers
8. Running with Scissors

No distributor for Goya's Ghosts worries me, but the cast and crew are terrific (both director Milos Forman and writer Jean-Claude Carrière are Oscar winners).

1. Flags of Our Fathers
2. United 93
3. A Good Year
4. Dreamgirls
5. The Departed
6. The Good Shepherd
7. Volver
8. Babel
9. Little Children
10. The Blood Diamond

Marie Antoinette is pretty much out of the race, IMO.

Babel will be like 21 Grams, highly lauded and with acting noms, but I don't see it as a BP contender.

Volver is underestimated. The reviews for it are mostly through the roof, many calling it Almodovar's best work. It did very well at Cannes and if any foreign film has got a chance in the race this year, this is it.

I admit, I am a little biased against Dreamgirls because I personally think it looks like crap and also musicals really haven't done well after Chicago...

The only reason Flags of Our Fathers is #1 right now is because it is really the only film on the list that really has nothing going against it at the moment (apart from a pathetic cast).

A Good Year is being underestmated as well. It might not be the "right kind" of a movie, but Crowe usually takes on Oscar-y roles in recent years and Scott has a good track record as well.

the blood diamond?

Also The History Boys (hasn't been mentioned in the thread) is probably on the list somewhere too, although I'm not convinced it will hit with academy.

1. Dreamgirls
2. Flags Of Our Fathers
3. The Last King Of Scotland
4. The Good Shepherd
5. Babel
6. Little Children
7. The Good German
8. United 93
9. Marie Antoinette

Marie Antoinette but no The Departed?

Yeah, I honestly think The Departed has no chance.

I could understand that, but neither does Marie Antoinette after having been blasted by critics : )

Has it really been blasted ? I know the reviews were mixed, but some of the reports at Cannes were a bit exagerrated.

The film was boo'ed at the screening, the reviewers in France (where it was officially released) were not kind to this either. I actually read a long interview with Sofia Coppola on the mixed reception. And its current IMDB grade is 6.7/10 with over 1,000 votes in, hardly good enough for anything

I think Little Miss Sunshine deserves to be mentioned on some lists, even if doesn't make anyone's top five.

I agree especially since it's a proven success already critically and commercially, and at the end of the year you know that some of the big most anticipated films will fall on their faces. It happens every year.

Right now, the only film I'm 100% confident will receive a BP nom is Dreamgirls. It's likely commercial success (old white people, blacks, fans of American Idol, fans of musicals will all turn out) will only push it towards the front of the pack.

I was rewatching Kinsey the other day, Condon knows how to make movies.

I agree with this, it's the only BP nom lock right now.

As Alex young said, Little Miss Sunshine deserves to be mentioned. If this had been released in December instead of August, I could see it getting a Best Picture nomination with how well-structured and appealing it is.

I agree Little Miss Sunshine deserves to be mentioned; however, it's likely to be overshadowed by United 93 in critics awards. It could be sort of like The Squid and the Whale and Brokeback Mountain last year, which had the top two highest scores at BFCA (92 and 93). Comparison between the two:

Metacritic: Brokeback Mountain - 87, 17 100's; The Squid and the Whale - 82, 4 100's

RT: Brokeback Mountain - 86%, 8.2 (COTC: 90%, 8.1); The Squid and the Whale - 94%, 8.0 (COTC: 100%, 8.3)

The RT and BFCA scores are actually very comparable, but metacritic tells the difference, where we see how many more 100's Brokeback has. Little Miss Sunshine is certainly miles more accessible than Squid, but similarly, the passion for it, huge as it is, isn't as strong as United 93. In fact, the gap is bigger:

Metacritic: United 93 - 90, a staggering 19 100's; Little Miss Sunshine - 78, 3 100's

RT: United 93 - 90%, 8.1 (COTC: 92%, 8.1); Little Miss Sunshine - 93%, 7.7 (COTC: 90%, 7.5)

BFCA: United 93 - 95; Little Miss Sunshine - 94

This year is shaping up to be a great year for critics awards, with two films already having higher BFCA scores than any films from 2005, and with Babel and Volvers still on the way. However, it may not be too competitive given how strong the numbers for United 93 look. I kind of hope I'm wrong, after two years of seeing a film sweep everything (Sideways and Brokeback, even though I love both).

I really can't see how the Academy can ignore U93...

I hope they find a way.

I have to disagree on Dreamgirls being a lock. It's released by the same studio as Flags, meaning there's a very good chance that one gets in and the other loses. Eastwood is Eastwood... It'll be tough to knock him away from at least a nomination.

I think U93 is the closest thing to an assured nomination, honestly.

Why are y'all so sure about Dreamgirls being a lock? Just curious, I'm out of the loop.

It killed at Cannes. Early buzz is deafening, early reviews are very positive. Looks like both Murphy and Hudson are locks for noms and wins. Condon has the magic touch when it comes to musicals.