There really is no solid comparison.

New RS tracking is way way down -_-

I thought the tracking doesn't come out until Monday afternoon?

Thanks for sharing...what the hecks the number??

That was an entirely different beast. I remember the Blair Witch hoopla from 1999 very vividly and Snakes on a Plane (despite its internet buzz) still has nothing on Blair Witch.

SNAKES ON A PLANE 25.20
ACCEPTED 13.50
MATERIAL GIRLS 4.0
THE ILLUSIONIST 3.8

Just I don't get it forwarded until Monday. Kenspy has an account.

Here's something hopeful regarding Snakes on a Plane's opening next weekend (from Movie City News):

"Already generating considerable buzz in advance of next weekend is Snakes on a Plane. While tracking remains soft, industry pundits are savvy to the fact that interest methodology is likely not picking up on the picture’s core audience. There was also surprise that Friday’s trade screening to exhibitors generated very positive response to a crowd not expected to connect strongly to the material."

Maybe tracking is off and the film does appear to be entertaining

Some of these SOAP predictions are outrageous, IMO. I'd be surprised if this cracked $25M for the weekend. I agree that the awarenes is high, but more from a standpoint of laughing about the movie than actually wanting to see it. Who knows, I may be proven wrong, though.

But 25M is good, no?

Excellent and reasonable, IMO. It sounds like a few folks are getting carried away here.

They want something, I think, that would be considered something of a surprise to explode. Sure, Step Up did unexpectedly well but it didn't explode to an unforeseen level when you consider the performances of You Got Served and Save the Last Dance. Ricky Bobby was expected to do well so that wasn't surprising. But if Snakes opens to 30-40 million with a ridiculous title and a B-movie plot, that would have to be considered a surprise. No expected much from it, not even New Line, when they gave it the greenlight. To see it do really well would surprise a lot of people and perhaps change the way films are marketed and made.

"Maybe tracking is off and the film does appear to be entertaining "

Except there won't be any reviews telling people that, so they won't be able to get anyone but the diehard internet fans opening weekend. It takes positive reviews to get this movie to mainstream audiences ala Red Eye.

You know, they might get others as well who just want to have a fun time at the movies. Ever think of that possibility?

I think I agree with MCN here, regarding the methodology. Talladega opened very high and kept dropping each week, but the initial trackings were the closest. Could be the same with SOAP, which I think opened with a mid-30s tracking.

I still think it's really funny that a movie with a plot that is soooooooo bad (and knowing its sooooooo bad, people still want to see it) is about to make presumably 20+ in box office. You just know there will be bad copycat films greenlit now.

SOAP earliest initial tracking was at 28 million. I dont ever recall it being at the mid-30s. And yes MSN mainly underpredicts comedies but I dont recall them doing so for horrors

No, it doesn't.

Step Up opened to $21m on abysmal reviews. Anyone under the age of 25 is not taking reviews into consideration, as usual. Now, adults might be turned off by the bad reviews, but they're not the target range of audience.

I get the feeling that this is a very hard film to track. I can see MTC being off $10M in either direction because they may be under/overestimating the draw of SOAP.

Exactly. I mean, what's the best comparison here? Nothing. The film is a random internet sensation and the usual forms of tracking a film might not be helpful here. It's doing well on the buzz charts, though.

I'm thinking over $30M for Snakes.

$8.6M for Step Up. (57% drop, similar to John Tucker's)]

Material Girls and Accepted won't register.

Tracking from notfabio:

MTC:

SNAKES ON A PLANE: 24 MILLION
ACCEPTED: 14 MILLION
MATERIAL GIRLS: 5 MILLION

RS:

SNAKES ON A PLANE: 20 million
ACCEPTED: 15 MILLION
MATERIAL GIRLS: 6 MILLION


FUTURE REEL SOURCE

GRIDIRON GANG: 20 MILLION
BEERFEST: 8 MILLION
WICKER MAN: 9 MILLION
INVINCIBLE: 11 MILLION
GUARDIAN: 13 MILLION

I'm not surprised with the SOAP drop, but I do find Invincible's # disconcerting. Accepted is tracking higher than I expected.

I don't think the filmmakers of SNAKES ON A PLANE were so clever that they originally planned on making it out to be this cheesy horror thriller but instead actually meant it to be a serious horror thriller, but because people ate it up and thought it sounded hilarious they played up that angle, making it seem like it was their plan all along. In reality they likely meant it to be a run-of-the-mill creature feature to release in August and hope to get a few bucks from, like ANACONDAS or something.

I'm still not convinced it will be a big hit. Sure the internet hype is there, and people eat up the trailer and laugh hysterically at it, but are they actually laughing with it or at it? Do they care enough to pay money to go see bad filmmaking that just happens to be a blast? Not everyone is into the whole "so bad it's good" movie scene. And horror comedies tend not to be huge hits. The only time audiences really embrace horror comedies is when it's a spoof like SCARY MOVIE. Even ones with great reviews like SHAUN OF THE DEAD and SLITHER got dismissed for the most part.

Most of the comments on the trailer on YouTube say it looks horrible, so I think this could definitely bomb (well, disappoint anyway). It's not out of the question that it could open to just 13-15 Million. I only know one person that wants to see it. Just because everyone is aware of it doesn't mean they're going to fork out money to see it in theaters. Maybe they just plan on renting it on DVD, or maybe not at all. Everybody knows what GIGLI is but many didn't see that. It's more infamous than anything. Nobody I work with (I work at a video store) wants to see SNAKES ON A PLANE, and a couple even say they will never see it. I enjoy watching cheesy movies and making fun of them, but most people I know don't. They want their comedy straight-up, and the same with their horror flicks and action movies. They don't like when the whole point of something is to laugh at it. SNAKES ON A PLANE is really not easy to predict for. It might do 13-30 Million. I don't think it will do more than that. And legs won't be too hot either.

Why the drop for SOAP? Still, 20-25 million is about where most expect it. They both seem to be overshooting the appeal of Accepted as it looks so unremarkable and doesn't have the break-out potential that Step Up had. Also, Material Girls is also overestimated, even at that low a number, as I could see it doing under 4 million for the weekend, easy. Where's the marketing or interest? It looks to have less appeal than Zoom even.

Before you say "crappy filmmaking" maybe you should see it. David R. Ellis has made two very fun and well-made thrillers in FD2 and Cellular and there's no reason to think that this won't follow suit. On top of that, in an article on Movie City News, exhibitors were shown the film and the reaction was overwhelmingly positive. I don't think it'll be as crappily made as some may be expecting, nor as funny. Instead, it'll be a fun thriller and no doubt far better than either of the Anaconda films. Heck, Slither wasn't poorly made either, as evidenced by its great RT rating. Critics loved it and it was obviously made with care and attention to detail.