Put it this way...the tracking I've seen does not point to that much interest in the movie even if awareness is high. It's actually split down the middle.. .as if more people are interested in mocking the movie than actually seeing it.

Then why was the latest tracking over 25 million? ReelSource has it at 28 million, to be exact.

The tracking I use (the one used by the studios, which Reel Source is not) does not point to an opening weekend that high, but it doesn't give actual box office predictions..just shows the data of how much interest/awareness there is... it's not that impressive compared to the internet buzz. Granted, it's not the best for horror movies or kids' movies but it's still lower even when compared to last year's Red Eye.

Interesting... How come you don't let us in on this info? Until then, I rightfully will remain skeptical.

Because it's confidential information that I only receive with the understanding that I don't post the actual data/info in it. I'm sure mentioning it in passing is okay, but it's from the same source/company that Jeffrey Wells sometimes posts his info from.

Likely story. Why would movie info be confidential? It's not like it's a matter of national security. I mean, who really cares if the public knows? It would probably help some movies if the public did know. Plus, you don't use your real name here so they wouldn't know you did it. I just find it hard to believe that such info would be of utmost importance that it not be shared. Movies hardly matter in the scheme of things. They're just entertainment.

Snakes on a Plane - $30.6m
Accepted - $11.3m
Little Miss Sunshine - $5.9m
Material Girls - $4.0m

Is this top secret information the same information you used when you said X3 wouldn't break $100m 4-Day?

For what it's worth I'm sure misterglass has real inside info, and I'm pretty sure why he would get it. But, I don't think tracking is ever easy to interpret especially with a movie like SOAP.

Oh, is that why your nick is "Zing-aling"?

This is absolutely true and the key reason why I don't think it should be posted willy nilly. I don't get the info that often and it's only good to get some idea for comparisons, to see how expansive awareness of a movie is based on marketing... it was never really created to try to predict box office from.

I really doubt anyone from the big 3 studio tracking firms is going to see and/or care that you posted it. They have much bigger things to be worrying about than patroling the WorldofKJ boards.

For comparitive purposes, RS pegs the "Plan on seeing the film" percentage of the teen male demo at 62%. Is your "inside info" markedly different than that? I doubt it...

SOAP - 21m

I know better than to trust someone with "spy" in their name... the info I receive doesn't have a number/percentage for "plan on seeing the film" (though that doesn't necessarily mean "in theatres opening weekend"). My data does seem to correspond with the latest BOM survey though:

When will you see 'Snakes on a Plane?'
28.0% Opening Weekend
25.9% Never
21.4% On DVD
17.4% Sometime in Theaters
7.4% On TV

The movie's camp and for everyone who will pay money to see it just to see if it lives up to the hype, there will be three others who won't waste their money.

Still not buying it. I'm inclined to think you're making it up. Even if you aren't, remember how Jeffrey Wells, who gets the same info you get, said that The Break-Up was going to bomb?

But thats basically the only demo interested in the film.

Jeffery Wells didn't get The Break-Up right, but he did call a few others, so I wouldn't discredit his form of "tracking." It's just that I can't take misterglass's thing seriously knowing that if studios saw that there wasn't a high level of interest, they probably wouldn't have put Snakes on a Plane in over 3,300 theaters. It's not like they're known for their huge theaters counts (only about 15 of their films have ever had over 3,000 theaters). And like DP07 said, it's hard to track a film like this.

As Step Up proved, that's sometimes all you need (teens) to be successful. Also, I think the audience is more than just teens. I'm guessing it extends into college students such as myself at age 21.

New York Minute got over 3000 screens, as did New Line's own Hoot. This is a different situation though me thinks.

Hey, if you're looking for an opneing around John Tuckers, Step Up then im fine with that. It'll most likely drop harder then those films in it's second week anyways.

Snakes attracts more than just teens though. Its audience make-up should be similar to that of Scary Movie 4, a film that opened to 40 million. If that crappy film can do it, there's no reason Snakes doesn't deserve to as well. The first Scary Movie was rated R and it still opened to 42 million.

How do you come up with such a comparison?

Both films aimed at teens with the same rating. Both comedies (of sorts).

That simple huh?

Another comparison is the first Blair Witch Project, also an R-rated feature with loads of internet buzz. It opened to over 29 million its first wide weekend.