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 U.S. Current Account Deficit Sets Record... 
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Post U.S. Current Account Deficit Sets Record...
Somehow expected if you ask me :)

http://usinfo.state.gov/ei/Archive/2004/Dec/16-359031.html?chanlid=econissues wrote:
Washington -- The deficit in the U.S. current account, the broadest measure of U.S. transactions with the rest of the world, increased slightly in July-September to a record high, the U.S. Department of Commerce reports.

According to a December 16 Commerce press release, the third-quarter current account deficit went up to a seasonally adjusted $164.7 billion from a revised $164.4 billion in the second quarter, reflecting the continued rise in the U.S. trade deficit.

The current account deficit reached a historically high 5.6 percent of the size of total U.S. output measured as gross domestic product.

In the third quarter, U.S. imports, up $14 billion to $532.6 billion, continued to increase faster than U.S. exports, up $10 billion to $382.5 billion.

The financial account, which reflects shifts in the current account, shows that foreigners increased their net direct investments in the United States during the third quarter at a faster pace than in the second quarter.

Foreigners sharply slowed increased net purchases of U.S. Treasury securities in the third quarter and somewhat slowed increased net purchases of federally sponsored agency bonds.

Net foreign purchases of U.S. corporate bonds reached a record $84.7 billion in the third quarter.

The exchange rate of the U.S. dollar continued to slide in the third quarter, down 2 percent on a trade-weighted quarterly average basis against a group of seven major currencies.

Regarding European unhappiness with the dollar's slide in value against the euro, President Bush said in December 15 remarks that his administration would press Congress to reduce the federal government budget deficit, including long-term fiscal threats from Social Security and health care programs.

He reiterated that his administration favors a strong U.S. dollar. To make "conditions such that a strong dollar will emerge," Bush said, "we'll do everything we can in the upcoming legislative session to send a signal to the markets that we'll deal with our deficit, which, hopefully, will cause people to want to buy dollars."

U.S. trade partners can help resolve the other deficit that worries foreigners, the U.S. trade deficit, he said.

"That's easy to resolve; people can buy more United States products if they're worried about the trade deficit," Bush said.


More at the link above

Well, Krem, I think it's time to restart the discussion. There is no denying the fact that the current situation in a way hurts Europe as well (high Euro ==> less export), but it seems like the USA isn't as well off as you have contended ;)

The current development of the dollar is not a good one for the USA either if you ask me. Compare it with the dollar in the 70ies, you'll notice a big rather unpleasant change.

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Mon Dec 20, 2004 4:28 pm
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Which country is the number one target for foreign investment?


Mon Dec 20, 2004 4:32 pm
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Krem wrote:
Which country is the number one target for foreign investment?


For how long?

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Mon Dec 20, 2004 4:33 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
Which country is the number one target for foreign investment?


For how long?

That's not the point. You did know that foreign investment counts against current account, right?


Mon Dec 20, 2004 4:38 pm
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Trade deficit always goes up when a recovery is happening -- people are buying more stuff, and whether you are in Bonn or Los Angeles that means buying more foreign goods. The trade deficit doesn't worry me and even if it mattered much it will go down some with the dollar falling. The budget deficit however has a real impact.


Mon Dec 20, 2004 4:38 pm
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Archie Gates wrote:
Trade deficit always goes up when a recovery is happening -- people are buying more stuff, and whether you are in Bonn or Los Angeles that means buying more foreign goods. The trade deficit doesn't worry me and even if it mattered much it will go down some with the dollar falling. The budget deficit however has a real impact.

exactly. Current account deficit is just a measure of the economy at that particular time; by itself it is rather meaningless, since it could mean any number of things.

The budget deficit, on the other hand, needs to be eliminated.


Mon Dec 20, 2004 4:48 pm
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Krem wrote:
Archie Gates wrote:
Trade deficit always goes up when a recovery is happening -- people are buying more stuff, and whether you are in Bonn or Los Angeles that means buying more foreign goods. The trade deficit doesn't worry me and even if it mattered much it will go down some with the dollar falling. The budget deficit however has a real impact.

exactly. Current account deficit is just a measure of the economy at that particular time; by itself it is rather meaningless, since it could mean any number of things.

The budget deficit, on the other hand, needs to be eliminated.


1. The account deficit is getting worse. It's not like it's improving

2. The budget deficit won't be eliminated anytime soon (at least not in any coming decades)

2. Check that out:

http://www.womensgroup.org/95NEWS.html

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Mon Dec 20, 2004 6:46 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
1. The account deficit is getting worse. It's not like it's improving

2. The budget deficit won't be eliminated anytime soon (at least not in any coming decades)

2. Check that out:

http://www.womensgroup.org/95NEWS.html

1. Once again, just because the current account deficit is growing, does not mean it's getting worse.

2. The budget deficit could be eliminated next year if the incomes taxes were raised by about 10 points. But, IMHO, that's not the wisest course of action, as money in the pockets of taxpayers are better used than the money in the pockets of the federal government. Other ways to reduce and/or eliminate the deficit is to cut the federal spending by about 10-15%.

3. Back in 1995, at the time the article you point to was written, the rates for the U.S. dollar were dropping too. What happened later? The dollar appreciated as the Fed increased interest rates.

Guess what Fed is doing now?


Mon Dec 20, 2004 7:02 pm
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Krem wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
1. The account deficit is getting worse. It's not like it's improving

2. The budget deficit won't be eliminated anytime soon (at least not in any coming decades)

2. Check that out:

http://www.womensgroup.org/95NEWS.html

1. Once again, just because the current account deficit is growing, does not mean it's getting worse.

2. The budget deficit could be eliminated next year if the incomes taxes were raised by about 10 points. But, IMHO, that's not the wisest course of action, as money in the pockets of taxpayers are better used than the money in the pockets of the federal government. Other ways to reduce and/or eliminate the deficit is to cut the federal spending by about 10-15%.

3. Back in 1995, at the time the article you point to was written, the rates for the U.S. dollar were dropping too. What happened later? The dollar appreciated as the Fed increased interest rates.

Guess what Fed is doing now?


So the fact that about a decade ago 80% of worldwide capital was in US-$ and that the number right now is "only" 65% is not worriesome and that the worth of the US-$ in comparison to the Yen went down by 70% since the 70s is not worriesome either?

"But, IMHO, that's not the wisest course of action, as money in the pockets of taxpayers are better used than the money in the pockets of the federal government. "

If you leave people with their money there is no guarantee whatsoever that they will consume with this extra money. Considering that we live in a risk society and that the deconstruction of the social inequality can hit anyone anytime, anyplace, people rather save up the money than consume it.

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Mon Dec 20, 2004 7:12 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:

So the fact that about a decade ago 80% of worldwide capital was in US-$ and that the number right now is "only" 65% is not worriesome and that the worth of the US-$ in comparison to the Yen went down by 70% since the 70s is not worriesome either?

Why should it be? There are more and more economic development going on in the world, and as the countries' economies grow, they rely more on their currencies rather than on the dollar. It's a good thing.

And let's not discuss Japan here; that country hasn't grown in 15 years, while the U.S. economy has been going on all cylinders.
Dr. Lecter wrote:
"But, IMHO, that's not the wisest course of action, as money in the pockets of taxpayers are better used than the money in the pockets of the federal government. "

If you leave people with their money there is no guarantee whatsoever that they will consume with this extra money. Considering that we live in a risk society and that the deconstruction of the social inequality can hit anyone anytime, anyplace, people rather save up the money than consume it.


America is a consumer society. The problem here is not that the people oversave, it's that they don't save enough.

Even if there was a risk of there being not enough spending to fuel the economy just the way you feel is right, it doesn't matter. The money is not the government's; it is the people's. It is up to the people to decide what they want to do with it.


Mon Dec 20, 2004 7:21 pm
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Krem wrote:
Why should it be? There are more and more economic development going on in the world, and as the countries' economies grow, they rely more on their currencies rather than on the dollar. It's a good thing.

And let's not discuss Japan here; that country hasn't grown in 15 years, while the U.S. economy has been going on all cylinders.


I simply used the Yen because it is normally the casual comparison to the US-$. I think it is worriesome. Obviously not for other countires, but for the USA it is. You can't deny that the strong monopolistic value of the dollar was appreciated by the US government.

Krem wrote:


America is a consumer society. The problem here is not that the people oversave, it's that they don't save enough.

Even if there was a risk of there being not enough spending to fuel the economy just the way you feel is right, it doesn't matter. The money is not the government's; it is the people's. It is up to the people to decide what they want to do with it.


"People" are not smart and sure do not think as globally as they should.

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Mon Dec 20, 2004 7:31 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
Why should it be? There are more and more economic development going on in the world, and as the countries' economies grow, they rely more on their currencies rather than on the dollar. It's a good thing.

And let's not discuss Japan here; that country hasn't grown in 15 years, while the U.S. economy has been going on all cylinders.


I simply used the Yen because it is normally the casual comparison to the US-$. I think it is worriesome. Obviously not for other countires, but for the USA it is. You can't deny that the strong monopolistic value of the dollar was appreciated by the US government.

WHy should it be worrisome for the U.S.? If there are more stable economies, then there are more trading partners. International trade is not a zero sum game; it's a win-win game.

As for the U.S> government propping up the dollar, you're way off base here. The government has taken the laissez faire approach to the currency, and has specifically stated that it will let the market decide the dollar value. If anything, it's the foreign governments that are artificially propping up the dollar to make their exports competitive.
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:


America is a consumer society. The problem here is not that the people oversave, it's that they don't save enough.

Even if there was a risk of there being not enough spending to fuel the economy just the way you feel is right, it doesn't matter. The money is not the government's; it is the people's. It is up to the people to decide what they want to do with it.


"People" are not smart and sure do not think as globally as they should.

This is the same rhetoric that gets liberals in trouble here in the U.S.
Regardless of what you think of the people's habits, it is not your place to tell them whether they're being dumb or smart by spending the money the way they want to. People out in Nebraska know better what's best for them than the government bureaucrats in DC do.

If the opposite was the case, I'm sure Germany and France wouldn't have the problems that the nanny-state polciies created for them.


Mon Dec 20, 2004 8:27 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
Archie Gates wrote:
Trade deficit always goes up when a recovery is happening -- people are buying more stuff, and whether you are in Bonn or Los Angeles that means buying more foreign goods. The trade deficit doesn't worry me and even if it mattered much it will go down some with the dollar falling. The budget deficit however has a real impact.

exactly. Current account deficit is just a measure of the economy at that particular time; by itself it is rather meaningless, since it could mean any number of things.

The budget deficit, on the other hand, needs to be eliminated.


1. The account deficit is getting worse. It's not like it's improving

2. The budget deficit won't be eliminated anytime soon (at least not in any coming decades)

2. Check that out:

http://www.womensgroup.org/95NEWS.html

The budget deficit was eliminated at the end of the Clinton administration, they had a surplus and had surpluses as far as economists project into the future.

What you are referring to is the debt, yeah that won't be down soon due to political changes in Washington in the last year (trying to not turn this into a dem vs rep thread).

One thing to keep in mind is that in America a billion means a different thing than it does in Europe. in Europe a billion is a million times a million. In America a billion is one thousand million. So yes it is big but it's not this impossible mountain when you consider the size of the economy. It is mostly about getting bipartisan agreement to both raise taxes on the rich and trim spending on unnecessary things. It won't happen soon but given that it did happen a few years ago it will probably be doable again once the reins change hands regardless of the party of the next president.


Mon Dec 20, 2004 8:35 pm
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Krem wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
Which country is the number one target for foreign investment?


For how long?

That's not the point. You did know that foreign investment counts against current account, right?


So? In what way does it make up for the account deficit? The thing is that the foreign investments will become less, but the account deficit doesn't seem to lower.

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Tue Dec 21, 2004 10:37 am
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Krem wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:


America is a consumer society. The problem here is not that the people oversave, it's that they don't save enough.

Even if there was a risk of there being not enough spending to fuel the economy just the way you feel is right, it doesn't matter. The money is not the government's; it is the people's. It is up to the people to decide what they want to do with it.


"People" are not smart and sure do not think as globally as they should.

This is the same rhetoric that gets liberals in trouble here in the U.S.
Regardless of what you think of the people's habits, it is not your place to tell them whether they're being dumb or smart by spending the money the way they want to. People out in Nebraska know better what's best for them than the government bureaucrats in DC do.

If the opposite was the case, I'm sure Germany and France wouldn't have the problems that the nanny-state polciies created for them.


Oh yeah, we cut the taxes....and how did it help? Wait...it didn't! You say the money is not the government's, but the people's. Yet it is the government that people expect to do many things like improving the ifra-structure, the educational system etc. The government needs money. Where do you think shall the government get its finances from if not from the people?

Also, you maintain that the lower the dollar is the better it is for the USA?

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Tue Dec 21, 2004 10:41 am
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We're #1! We're #1!


Tue Dec 21, 2004 10:44 am
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Archie Gates wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
Archie Gates wrote:
Trade deficit always goes up when a recovery is happening -- people are buying more stuff, and whether you are in Bonn or Los Angeles that means buying more foreign goods. The trade deficit doesn't worry me and even if it mattered much it will go down some with the dollar falling. The budget deficit however has a real impact.

exactly. Current account deficit is just a measure of the economy at that particular time; by itself it is rather meaningless, since it could mean any number of things.

The budget deficit, on the other hand, needs to be eliminated.


1. The account deficit is getting worse. It's not like it's improving

2. The budget deficit won't be eliminated anytime soon (at least not in any coming decades)

2. Check that out:

http://www.womensgroup.org/95NEWS.html

The budget deficit was eliminated at the end of the Clinton administration, they had a surplus and had surpluses as far as economists project into the future.

What you are referring to is the debt, yeah that won't be down soon due to political changes in Washington in the last year (trying to not turn this into a dem vs rep thread).

One thing to keep in mind is that in America a billion means a different thing than it does in Europe. in Europe a billion is a million times a million. In America a billion is one thousand million. So yes it is big but it's not this impossible mountain when you consider the size of the economy. It is mostly about getting bipartisan agreement to both raise taxes on the rich and trim spending on unnecessary things. It won't happen soon but given that it did happen a few years ago it will probably be doable again once the reins change hands regardless of the party of the next president.


Sorry, I misunderstodd Krem's post earlier. Yes, what I meant was the debt.

Also, I know what a billion is in the USA ;) The thing is not that it is high or not, but that it has not gotten any better in recent times. As far as I know there are four main goals in the economy. The first is employment of the people, the second is the stability of the price level, the third is the continual and appropriate growth of the economy and the fourth is an account balance. :)

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Tue Dec 21, 2004 10:47 am
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
Which country is the number one target for foreign investment?


For how long?

That's not the point. You did know that foreign investment counts against current account, right?


So? In what way does it make up for the account deficit? The thing is that the foreign investments will become less, but the account deficit doesn't seem to lower.

How will the balance of payments stay balanced then?


Tue Dec 21, 2004 10:55 am
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
Sorry, I misunderstodd Krem's post earlier. Yes, what I meant was the debt.

Also, I know what a billion is in the USA ;) The thing is not that it is high or not, but that it has not gotten any better in recent times. As far as I know there are four main goals in the economy. The first is employment of the people, the second is the stability of the price level, the third is the continual and appropriate growth of the economy and the fourth is an account balance. :)

If you try to artificially balance the economy, it will come back and bite you on the ass with a vengeance. Just look what happened tot he U.S. in the 70's because of all the Keynesian policies. Does the word stagflation mean anything?


Tue Dec 21, 2004 10:57 am
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
Oh yeah, we cut the taxes....and how did it help? Wait...it didn't! You say the money is not the government's, but the people's. Yet it is the government that people expect to do many things like improving the ifra-structure, the educational system etc. The government needs money. Where do you think shall the government get its finances from if not from the people?

First of all what tax cuts you're talking about? Top rate is a whopping 45% in Germany. I guess it's a step in the right direction (from 51% that is), but it's hardly enough to stimulate growth. That's without considering the 16% VAT.

Second, if it was just the infra-structure and education that Germany spent money on, there'd be no real problem. But when you're literally paying a large chunk of the population not to work, yeah there is a genuine problem with the "expectations" set by some people on other people's money.
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Also, you maintain that the lower the dollar is the better it is for the USA?

No, what I maintain is that it is irrelevant. It is pointless to try and artificially make the dollar cheaper or more expensive; such fiddling around only hurts the economy in the end. A dollar is worth what others will pay for it, it's as simple as that.


Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:06 am
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Krem wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Sorry, I misunderstodd Krem's post earlier. Yes, what I meant was the debt.

Also, I know what a billion is in the USA ;) The thing is not that it is high or not, but that it has not gotten any better in recent times. As far as I know there are four main goals in the economy. The first is employment of the people, the second is the stability of the price level, the third is the continual and appropriate growth of the economy and the fourth is an account balance. :)

If you try to artificially balance the economy, it will come back and bite you on the ass with a vengeance. Just look what happened tot he U.S. in the 70's because of all the Keynesian policies. Does the word stagflation mean anything?


Yes, it does. Right now the stagflation is slowly coming back with the oil prices rising, , the US government increasing interest rates, and stagnant unemployment rates. The thing is what is the alternative to Keynes? Monetarism?

If there is one thing I learned in Social Science, then it is that there is no good way out of a problem. You always need to look for a lesser evil. The strategy that the European Stability and Growth Pact employs is the opposite of the Keynesian. Well, it is failing all the way right now. Out of all possible strategies, I still perceive the one of Keyes as the better.

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Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:08 am
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Krem wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Oh yeah, we cut the taxes....and how did it help? Wait...it didn't! You say the money is not the government's, but the people's. Yet it is the government that people expect to do many things like improving the ifra-structure, the educational system etc. The government needs money. Where do you think shall the government get its finances from if not from the people?

First of all what tax cuts you're talking about? Top rate is a whopping 45% in Germany. I guess it's a step in the right direction (from 51% that is), but it's hardly enough to stimulate growth. That's without considering the 16% VAT.

Second, if it was just the infra-structure and education that Germany spent money on, there'd be no real problem. But when you're literally paying a large chunk of the population not to work, yeah there is a genuine problem with the "expectations" set by some people on other people's money.
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Also, you maintain that the lower the dollar is the better it is for the USA?

No, what I maintain is that it is irrelevant. It is pointless to try and artificially make the dollar cheaper or more expensive; such fiddling around only hurts the economy in the end. A dollar is worth what others will pay for it, it's as simple as that.


Well, at least Germany is the country with the best social network in the world. Oh and are also telling me that welfare doesn't exist in the USA or what?

As for the taxes cut, it went down from 53% and as for the VAT, you have that too in the USA 8even though it's smaller, I believe). The government needs money for the Social Security, Health Insurances and the educational improvement. These are the biggest money-suckers over here at the moment. The government can't allow itself to cut more taxes and trust me, the day will come that the taxes in the USA will rise dramatically.
(well, unless, there is another country conquered with lots of oil ;) )

I didn't say that you should do anything with the dollar itself. I was just stating that the current development of the dollar IS an unfortunate one for the USA.

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Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:13 am
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Krem wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
Which country is the number one target for foreign investment?


For how long?

That's not the point. You did know that foreign investment counts against current account, right?


So? In what way does it make up for the account deficit? The thing is that the foreign investments will become less, but the account deficit doesn't seem to lower.

How will the balance of payments stay balanced then?


When?

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Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:13 am
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
Yes, it does. Right now the stagflation is slowly coming back with the oil prices rising, , the US government increasing interest rates, and stagnant unemployment rates. The thing is what is the alternative to Keynes? Monetarism?

The unemployment rate is 5.4%; the inflation rate is less than 4%; the interest rates are at 2.25% and steadily rising (for comparison, they were higher than 6% in the late 90's, during the economic boom). Not exactly causes for concern, and neither are the underlying trends.

The alternative to Keynes is laissez faire - you let the people decide what's best for them, and the government takes a backseat approach to the economy. For instance, if you notice, in the U.S. there are virtually no corporations run by the government (with the infamous exception of Amtrak, that money-sucking monopoly).
Dr. Lecter wrote:
If there is one thing I learned in Social Science, then it is that there is no good way out of a problem. You always need to look for a lesser evil. The strategy that the European Stability and Growth Pact employs is the opposite of the Keynesian. Well, it is failing all the way right now. Out of all possible strategies, I still perceive the one of Keyes as the better.

Nevermind the fact that it failed miserably in the 1930's and the 1970's?

Keynesian economics assumes that the government is inherently more effective than the private sector is. It is false.

On top of that, it assumes that the government has the right to help itself to your money. Not only is this wrong, it is also amoral.


Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:19 am
Post 
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Krem wrote:
Which country is the number one target for foreign investment?


For how long?

That's not the point. You did know that foreign investment counts against current account, right?


So? In what way does it make up for the account deficit? The thing is that the foreign investments will become less, but the account deficit doesn't seem to lower.

How will the balance of payments stay balanced then?


When?

Always. Balance of Payment has to stay balanced, hence the name.


Tue Dec 21, 2004 11:20 am
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