Wow, if it drops another 5% Thursday, it actually could get a weekend below $30M. :o

Good point.

Spider-Man 2
Weekend 2: -48.7% (Openers: Anchorman - $28.4m, King Arthur - $15.2m)
Weekend 3: -45.2% (Openers: I, Robot - $52.2m, A Cinderella Story - $13.6m)
Weekend 4: -39.4% (Openers: The Bourne Supremacy - $52.5m, Catwoman - $16.7m)
Weekend 5: -42.6% (Openers: The Village - $50.7m, Manchurian Candidate - $20.0m, Harold & Kumar - $5.5m)

Yes, Spider-Man 2 truly had no competition, Thegun. I can see how it survived now. I, Robot, Bourne and The Village are nothing in comparison to John Tucker Must Die! And its second weekend drop was softened by the Wednesday opening.

Revenge of the Sith
Weekend 2: -49.1% (Openers: Madagascar - $47.2m, The Longest Yard - $47.6m) [Memorial Day wknd]
Weekend 3: -54.6% (Openers: Cinderella Man - $18.3m, Sisterhood of Travelling Pants - $9.8m) [Post-Memorial Day Wknd]
Weekend 4: -40.8% (Openers: Mr. and Mrs. Smith - $50.3m, Shark Boy and Lava Girl - $12.6m)
Weekend 5: -32.4% (Openers: Batman Begins - $48.7m, The Perfect Man - $5.3m)

Sith's only hard drops were on its second weekend (frontloadedness) and Post Memorial Day weekend. Other than that, it leveled off eventually, as all movies with wide audiences do.

Shrek 2
Weekend 2: -33.2% (Openers: The Day After Tomorrow - $68.7m, Raising Helen - $11.0m) [Memorial Day wknd]
Weekend 3: -47.4% (Openers: Prisoner of Azkaban - $93.7m) [Post Memorial Day wknd]
Weekend 4: -38.5% (Openers: Riddick - $24.3m, Garfield - $21.7m, The Stepford Wives - $21.4m)
Weekend 5: -40.2% (Openers: Dodgeball - $30.1m, The Terminal - $19.1m)

Shrek 2 had no competition either, it seems. Potter? Nothing.

As for theater count loss, it's not going to lose that many. It'll still have over 3,000 theaters until at least its sixth weekend. So, thegun, why is Pirates never going to level off and drop hard continuously again? Bad WOM (which it doesn't have)?

But you can't justify that it'll drop 50% each weekend because of these openers. We're not looking at any blockbuster films here like Spider-Man 2, Shrek 2 and Sith faced.

Sigh. I posted this about 3 times this week, but I'll post it again, and hope that 4 times is the charm:

-------------------------------------
If POTC 2 follows the same fall during the weekdays this week, as it did for the weekend, and then after that the film only has drops of ___%, then the film will end at the designated totals:

Drops of 60% for the rest of its run: $345.84 m

Drops of 54.2% (what it did this weekend): $361.89 m

Drops of 50%: $375.81 m

Drops of 45%: $395.8 m

Drops of 40%: $420.76 m

Drops of 35%: $452.9 m

Drops of 30%: $495.6 m

So for POTC 2 to try to get to SW Ep. 4 or Shrek 2 levels, it will need drops of 35%. Considering it had a 54% drop this weekend after a $136 m opening weekend, I think that $400 m is very close to being a lock, as it would get to $362 m with those type of drops for the rest of its run, and Labor Day will help it get to $370 m, but also, drops should improve from the 2nd weekend drop anyhow, so while not a complete lock, it just needs to drop 40% and 45% for the rest of its run, and it could still get there.

$500 m looks like quite a stretch though.


So my analysis, gave POTC 2 a 54% drop for the weekdays over last week's $60.4 m weekday grosses. Many people seem to be jumping ship, but so far, POTC 2 had done $21.851 m, and even a $5.93 m Thursday would be able to match my guestimate. Even if POTC 2 drops 50% now for the rest of its run, with the Labor Day bump up, it will still be able to beat Sith imo with those huge drops. Even drops of 45% for the rest of its run, with the Labor Day bump up, should be able to get POTC 2 past $400 m. It isn't so out of reach that people seem to think it is, the numbers show otherwise. I'm not saying that $400 m will happen, as it was not the best move by some to say that it was a lock imo, but if it can get a total up there even with 45% drops for the rest of its run, I think its in pretty good position...

Are you trying to be dense? My parents don't go to blockbusters I Robot, Anchorman. Teenage girls, 34-50 women (obviously some do but they are not the driving force)don't go these movies, but they do go to alot of other movies opening in the next month. The have seen POTC and they might not see POTC2, because of John Tucker Must Die or the Night Listener.

You talk about theater counts, but what about screen capacity, was Spiderman moved to smaller screens like POTC and losing showings its first two weekends? I am sure it was, but was it as severe? Making room for 6 movies is much different than making room for 5.

Again you are comparing a movie Spiderman than had great WOM, against a movie that doesn't have as good of WOM, so why will it have better holds in the future when it has not shown that to be the case, in the past?

Daily Week to Week drops:

POTC2
Sat -44.1
Sun -46.4
Mon -56.4
Tues -52.4
Wed -54.4

SM2
Sat -46.9
Sun -38.9
Mon -79.2 (4th July impact)
Tues -54.8
Wed -49.8

SM2 was back to what it was on Sat. POTC 2 is getting off track. Shrek2 wasn't dropping this much and it opened huge.

"Your parents" don't respresent the country. I could easily say that my dad only sees blockbusters like I, Robot, Bourne, The Village and stuff like that, but it's irrelevant. All of these big films faced lots of competition and survived. Pirates won't because it doesn't have as good of WOM as Spider-Man 2? If it had bad WOM, that's a whole different story, but you make it seem like just because it's not as loved as Spider-Man 2, it'll drop 50% each weekend from here on out. I mean, can you really find an example of a film with such a wide demographic that dropped hard every weekend? Because I can't think of a single one that didn't have better drops eventually. It doesn't make any sense why it'll just continue to drop so much each weekend, and really, there's no justification behind it.

This isn't analysis, it is just a bunch of numbers on what POTC 2 will do if certain thresholds are met.

That's the whole point. My parents aren't representative of the whole country or the typical blockbuster moviegoer, but neither are certain fans of POTC. Pirates appeals to people that the other blockbusters don't appeal to. There isn't another movie with the wide demos, that's a sequel. POTC and Titanic and perhaps My Big Fat Greek Wedding that had such wide demos, but none of them had sequels until now.

This is the best I could do. Connie and Carla's IMDB rating was 6.6 its first weekend and is now 6.1 MBFGW is 6.7

Connie and Carla
-50%
-61%
-58.9%
-50.2%
-47.3%
-46.5% last week in theaters.

POTC's IMDB rating was 7.9 its first weekend and is now 7.5 POTC is 8.0

Am I missing something here? I must be misunderstanding mdana's post. Someone please tell me he did not just use the movie Connie and Carla as a comparison in any way to Pirates of the Caribbean 2. Wow.

PEACE, Mike.

Hypothetical. When the theaters do surveys of movigoers, they ask would you be interested in seeing this film?

Now they ask 100 random moviegoers and 95 state they would like to see POTC2 and 85 state they would like to see Spiderman2. Now they ask them if they were interested in other movies opening soon. Perhaps of those extra 10 people a few would only want to see POTC, but the seven others might be interested in Monster House, Lady, etc. The other 85 might also be interested in those other movies. Pirates because of the wide demo has to compete with those other choices.

Heh. Connie and Carla? I'm referring to, you know, a film that didn't bomb. And perhaps one that's released in the summer, too? And one that appeals to families.

I'm actually not sure how to go any further after that. I'll just let the numbers speak for themselves.

Yes. A bunch of numbers are usually important....

Ie add something to the mix that you feel is more analytical...

Am I missing something here? I must be misunderstanding MikeQ's post. Someone please tell me he did not just fail reading comprehension. Wow.

Oh, and that bomb had a better 2nd weekend drop than POTC2, so maybe the idignity should be on C & C. I was pretty much joking with the Connie and Carla comparison.

Ouch. That was harsh.

I feel the need to step in and just say that I really love Omar's comparison/breakdown/research/analysis posts, and I hope he keeps doing them. I always read them; they're very informative.

Thanks O.

PEACE, Mike.

I never said Spidey and Shrek and Sith didnt have competition. In our market today, everyfilm has huge competition. The only difference betweeen those films and Pirates is they had great reviews, while Pirates is in the middle middle ground. Some love it, some hate it, most agree that it is not as good. Not only that, it is performing worst than all three of those films going in relation to those three films. Its going to do the worst out of all of them from this point out.

And I didnt name every opener. I left out the Ant Bully and Barnyard because although there opening wide, I think CGi will be at overkill and hurt them.

A point to look at is that Pirates is having 4 wide release films every week, where as Sith, Spidey, and Shrek, never had more than 3. Where as those films lived up to and beyond expectations to hold off newcomers, Pirates is not having that luxury.

And I want it noted, that Im not a fan that wants to put my hate on Pirates. I actually enjoyed the Sequel giving it a B+.

And please stop with the Labor Day bump, its what 5 weeks away. Pirates will be luck to be over 2 million by that time. So it will jump to 4 million, big deal.

Thegun, Labor Day weekend aside, you're still kind of ignoring the numbers I showed. The absolute minimum it can make if it never levels off is still more than Spider-Man 2, Sith and Return of the King. And it will level off, like a normal film does.

I think it's amazing that people are still vehemently trying to fight against Pirates 2. I think I should just quote Jiffy:



PEACE, Mike.

I didn't mean to make it sound harsh, but you can do this for every movie. Post what are your projections for this weekend and next week and the reasoning behind it. I personally have been too optimistic in my projections for a $29m weekend and falling at the moment.

If it is not clear, I feel POTC will not have the legs of Sith and SM2, because of:

1. WOM, while good compared to most movies is lagging in comparison to POTC, sequels performing this poorly do not have good legs and tend to drop more than 50% week after week. The Matrix series be the one most like POTC. Great first movie followed by good/mediocre second movie doesn't help.
2. I base this on IMDB and Yahoo scores, which are good, but will not be as high as SM2, Shrek2, or Sith by the end of POTC 2's theatrical run.
3 Competition for screen seats and ticket buyers. No one seems to buy this arguement, but I think it will have greater impact on POTC2 than other mega blockbusters.
4. POTC 2 is darker than the first one and that tends to hurt legs as families with younger kids tend to shy away.
5. The Demos are so wide for POTC2 that it will take until its 4th or 5th weekend to get to sub -50% drops, when most movies do it on their third weekend. It may not get there, it might get on a wave of +50% drops and not end until too late.

Factors on why I good be wrong:
1. POTC families are a big part of POTC 2's demo and families are more forgiving of movies that aren't great.
2. POTC is still ranked as the number 1 choice on Yahoo for movies currently in theaters. However, I think this will change in the next ten days.

I still think $385-395m is the most likely scenerio, although $400m is still in play. However, so is sub $380m.

Thanks!

Also, Labor Day is especially beneficial to those films in the 2nd half of the summer, and especially those that are audience favorites. Considering POTC 2 is going to end up making 60% more than even its closest competitors for the summer, I think it should be able to benefit greatly from the long weekend, as it is an audience favorite. So I think it is worth considering, when we're looking at making predictions on POTC's total...

Then you'll never laugh again.

Is that a bet? The last time I had one for Pirates 2 opening weekend, and I won, big time.

If the film passes $400 million domestically, I win. If it doesn't, you win. Deal? We'll just leave it there and let the numbers roll in.

PEACE, Mike.

Ok, but you have to do a projection first

I project it will make over $400 million. I don't understand.

PEACE, Mike.

$499m or $414m?

Somewhere over $400 million (not way up and above it - definately won't make anywhere near $490 million). That is the bet. I don't have a specific number. You don't think it will make $400 million, I do. That's the bet. It's up to you if you are confident enough to take it.

Deal or no deal? (I sound like Howie Mandel, lol)

PEACE, Mike.