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trixster
loyalfromlondon
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:31 pm
Posts: 19697
Location: ville-marie
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ChipMunky wrote: I wanna know what Xiayun thinks... As do I.
I'll say $48.7 million. _________________Magic Mike wrote: zwackerm wrote: If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes. Same. Algren wrote: I don't think. I predict. 
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:49 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22182
Location: Places
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guys it sold out bout as many shoings as sith. but it can match siths 9400 screen count, that oculd hold the answer.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:55 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15497
Location: Everywhere
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ChipMunky wrote: I hate to do it.
But I think something between $62-70 mil is more likely. I'd be quite happy with that.
Anyway, my projection is mostly based on crowd reports.
Sellouts are as good as anything ever seen, and certainly at Spider-Man levels. That had 48m adjusted for Sat. SM's matinees on Friday were much lower then POTC since it was May with schools still in. So, I think a comparision to Sat is fair.
It has quite a few more prints since print counts were never that big back then. So, I think it has 53m-63m without midnights. Midnights were 12m-17m I think (most reports had it at Sith levels, but I suppose it might not quite have matched it), so at the low end I think it had 65m and at the high end 80m.
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:56 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15497
Location: Everywhere
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It sold out far more then Sith did on Thursday without midnights.
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 3:57 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Given the cloggedness, I have 120 ratio and $55m as well for the low end. I also used another calculation where I assume the written-to-overall ratio should have been 1 to 4.5. That would give it 8,653.5 reviews, and with my original projected ratio of 150, that's about $58m.
So $55-58m.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:00 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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xiayun wrote: Given the cloggedness, I have 120 ratio and $55m as well for the low end. I also used another calculation where I assume the written-to-overall ratio should have been 1 to 4.5. That would give it 8,653.5 reviews, and with my original projected ratio of 150, that's about $58m. So $55-58m. Delicious. _________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:01 am |
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Vovanik
Star Trek XI
Joined: Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:44 am
Posts: 337
Location: Ukraine,Kyiv
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Holy shit
135-140M$ weekend ?
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:04 am |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am
Posts: 3073
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OMG! $55-$58 million. I'm gonna start crying now.
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:05 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15497
Location: Everywhere
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Lock for 60m I'd say. Less then 50m for the day itself doesn't make sense to me given the crowd reports.
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:09 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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150m+  _________________The Force Awakens
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:10 am |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am
Posts: 3073
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Looks like DP07 and BJ will be shoving it to our faces in less than 10 hours.
_________________
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:11 am |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am
Posts: 3073
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BJ wrote: 150m+ Damn right! _________________
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:11 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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What about ChipMunky?  _________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:11 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15497
Location: Everywhere
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BJ wrote: 150m+ 
Give me 5.
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:12 am |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am
Posts: 3073
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ChipMunky wrote: What about ChipMunky? You were at $142 million. You pansyfied. _________________
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:13 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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DP07 wrote: BJ wrote: 150m+ Give me 5. all 5  _________________The Force Awakens
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:15 am |
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trixster
loyalfromlondon
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:31 pm
Posts: 19697
Location: ville-marie
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BJ wrote: 150m+ I would just like to point out that BJ has been predicting $58 million opening day for forever now. And now it's very likely gonna come true. Congrats.
A few months ago a $150 million weekend seemed impossible to me, but now it could very likely happen. That's insane. _________________Magic Mike wrote: zwackerm wrote: If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes. Same. Algren wrote: I don't think. I predict.
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:16 am |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am
Posts: 3073
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BJ has been sticking with his $58 million for what? A year? THat's one hell of a guts you have there.
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:17 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22182
Location: Places
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guys we dont have actuals yet.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:19 am |
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Kenspy
Into the fray
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 12:09 pm
Posts: 1874
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Whew Xiayun you are optimistic!
Here's how I see it shaping up...
Opening Day:
Low: $50.8
High: $54.1
Median: $52.4 million
Weekend Extrapolation at Median:
High (2.6): $136.2
Low (2.4): $125.8
Median (2.5): $131.0
YTD Accuracy at Median:
Opening Day: 95.1%
Opening Weekend: 91.4%
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:19 am |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am
Posts: 3073
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Doesn't matter! We're having a fiesta here before we get disappointed.
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:20 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22182
Location: Places
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ah.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:20 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15497
Location: Everywhere
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Eventine wrote: BJ has been sticking with his $58 million for what? A year? THat's one hell of a guts you have there. I've had 62m, which I think is too low. 
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:22 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Eventine wrote: BJ has been sticking with his $58 million for what? A year? THat's one hell of a guts you have there. 
just couldnt see the film grossing less  _________________The Force Awakens
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:22 am |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am
Posts: 3073
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DP07 wrote: Eventine wrote: BJ has been sticking with his $58 million for what? A year? THat's one hell of a guts you have there. I've had 62m, which I think is too low. For a year? _________________
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| Sat Jul 08, 2006 4:23 am |
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