W/ MI3 opening, I thought it would be a good idea to set some benchmarks for the summer on a 5 point scale. After a film opens, we have alot of backpeddling, with people saying that $200 m is outstanding for a film, when 2 months earlier they may have said it would be a disappointing gross, so I thought lets get it all on the record!

o's Benchmark Scale

5 Huge break out film of the summer to reach this level, outpacing all even optimistic expectations
4 Pleasant Surprise, not completely unrealistic going into the summer, but a solid success, and on the higher end of expectations.
3 Neither success or disappointment, but not really much to talk about based on its performance, as it met its average expectations but couldn't be deemed overly successful or disappointing).
2 Disappointment, but could have been worse (sort of King Kong like territory w/ some disappointment based on expectations)
1 Absolute mess and disappointment of huge proportions (Huge Disappointment)

The way this would work is, for the summer 2006 films (one can do all films, or just the big, big players), what box office performance for the film would be deemed appropriate for the 5 point benchmark scale.

For example, X3

X3

5 $260 m +
4 $216 m-260 m
3 $191 m-215 m
2 $141 m-190 m
1 Under $140 m

5 is huge break out potential, while 1 is huge disappointment levels. 3 is generally where you'd expect the film on average to go (ex. for X3, I'd say $200 m is where I'd see it as neither a disappointment or big success, as the slight dip from X2 would refrain me from putting it at a higher level).

This is an example of the benchmark system. Whoever is interested in doing some, feel free to, and we can compile levels to see where the average 5 levels benchmarks are for a film's success. If people want it simple, try just these biggies or whichever ones you want:

Superman
POTC 2
Cars
Da Vinci Code
MI3
Over The Hedge
X3

I'm going to incorporate other indicators as well, such as HSX blockbuster warrants prices, etc.

To help anyone having trouble with this, here's how I'd classify some of how 2005's film's did (of course opinions vary):

4 SW Ep 3
4 Narnia
4 HP4
3 WOTW
2 Kong
5 Wedding Crashers
4 Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
3 Batman Begins
3 Madagascar
4 Mr and Mrs Smith
2 Chicken Little
2 Robots
5 March of the Penguins (best example of this level)
2 Ring 2
1 Kingdom of Heaven ($130 m budget, doesn't pass $50 m)
1 The Island
1 Stealth
1 xxx2 (best example of this level)

• Mission: Impossible III (Par.) - 5/5

5 $261 m +
4 $226 m-$260 m
3 $180 m-$225 m
2 $141 m-$180 m
1 Under $140 m

• The Da Vinci Code (Sony) - 5/19

5 $300 m +
4 $241 m-$300 m
3 $181 m-$240 m
2 $131 m-$180 m
1 Under $130 m

• Over the Hedge (DW) - 5/19

5 $250 m +
4 $201 m-$250 m
3 $151 m-$200 m
2 $116 m-$150 m
1 Under $115 m

• X-Men: The Last Stand (Fox) - 5/26

5 $275 m +
4 $241 m-$275 m
3 $196 m-$240 m
2 $141 m-$195 m
1 Under $140 m

• Cars (BV) - 6/9

5 $325 m +
4 $266 m-$325 m
3 $226 m-$265 m
2 $176-$225 m
1 Under $175 m

• Superman Returns (WB) - 6/30

5 $300 m +
4 $240 m-$300 m
3 $176 m-$240 m
2 $141 m-$175 m
1 Under $140 m

• Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (BV) - 7/7

5 $400 m +
4 $336-$400 m
3 $291 m-$335 m
2 $201 m-$290 m
1 Under $200 m

5 $260 m + (SR & POTC2)
4 $216 m-260 m (MI3,X3,Cars)
3 $191 m-215 m (DVC,OTH)
2 $141 m-190 m (POS,Click,MVice,LITW)
1 Under $140 m (F&F3,BUP)

Superman
5 - > 350
4 - 280-350
3 - 235-280
2 - 195-235
1 - <195

Projected 3800 TC. I wouldn't be surprised if it increased. However, I'm just not feeling it. The people to whom I've talked outside of the internet haven't shown much enthusiasm. It's more of a "Oh, yeah that'd be nice to see". Not much of a blockbuster vibe. It seems many of ym friends were not fans of the second movie. But I've read a few reports here about people building up lots of hype, and early screenings (AICN) have said it was a very good film. I'll probably end up eating crow on this one more than any of the others...even POTC. Hm.

POTC2
5 - >420
4 - 365-420
3 - 305-365
2 - 250-305
1 - <250>340
4 - 280-340
3 - 220-280
2 - 160-220
1 - <160>270
4 - 240-270
3 - 200-240
2 - 140-200
1 - <140>230
4 - 205-230
3 - 160-205
2 - 120-160
1 - <120

I'm totally not feeling it for this one either. Regardless, Dreamworks seems to have this CG movie release scheme down.

X3
5 - >300
4 - 260-300
3 - 215-260
2 - 150-215
1 - <150

Anything below the first movie is a big disappointment. Period. Especially since this movie's predecessor set an opening TC record and opened to, what, third on the all time OW list? Prime release date, and the competition around it isn't direct. This has a solid chance at having something that resembles legs. Maybe.



EDIT: W.T.F. happened to my post? I fixed it.

I just found out the budget for Poseidon clocked in at $160 m according to Wolfgang Peterson, so where do you think it would rank benchmark wise?

Seriously. What the fuck is wrong with my post? I've never seen a glitch like this.

Good thread.

Mission Impossible 3:
5 - 270 mil+
4 - 235 mil+
3 - 200 mil+
2 - 180 mil+
1 - 155 mil+

Superman Returns -
5 - 325 mil+
4 - 250 mil+
3 - 205 mil+
2 - 185 mil+
1 - 165 mil+

Poseiden
5 - 185 mil+
4 - 150 mil+
3 - 120 mil+
2 - 105 mil+
1 - 75 mil+

Pirates 2 -
5 - 540 mil+
4 - 420 mil+
3 - 315 mil+
2 - 285 mil+
1 - 240 mil+

Da Vinci Code -
5 - 340 mil+
4 - 280 mil+
3 - 240 mil+
2 - 200 mil+
1 - 145 mil+

Cars -
5 - 340 mil+
4 - 280 mil+
3 - 255 mil+
2 - 215 mil+
1 - 185 mil+

X3 -
5 - 290 mil+
4 - 255 mil+
3 - 225 mil+
2 - 210 mil+
1 - 195 mil+

Over the Hedge -
5 - 255 mil+
4 - 225 mil+
3 - 185 mil+
2 - 155 mil+
1 - 105 mil+(Robots level)

MI3:
5 - $250 million+
4 - $220 million+
3 - $190 million+
2 - $150 million+
1 - $120 million+

Should make around $190-210 million. It won't top $250 million unless it's really good.

Poseidon:
5 - $180 million+
4 - $150 million+
3 - $130 million+
2 - $100 million+
1 - $70 million+

$130 million seems to be about right for this. Won't be as big as DAT.

Da Vinci Code:
5 - $300 million+
4 - $260 million+
3 - $225 million+
2 - $190 million+
1 - $150 million+

$225 million seems like the reasonable amount, but it could clear $300 million if it's good.

Over the Hedge:
5 - $240 million+
4 - $200 million+
3 - $170 million+
2 - $140 million+
1 - $100 million+

Will this be Finding Nemo, Madagascar, Shark Tale, or Robots? I'm leaning towards Madagascar.

X3:
5 - $280 million+
4 - $260 million+
3 - $230 million+
2 - $200 million+
1 - $175 million+

Bigger than the second, but won't be huge unless its quality is better than what we've seen.

Cars:
5 - $300 million+
4 - $270 million+
3 - $250 million+
2 - $220 million+
1 - $190 million+

Not quite up to Incredibles numbers. Still, a solid total is in store.

Click:
5 - $180 million+
4 - $160 million+
3 - $140 million+
2 - $120 million+
1 - $100 million+

Typical Sandler comedy.

Superman Returns:
5 - $280 million+
4 - $250 million+
3 - $200 million+
2 - $175 million+
1 - $140 million+

Being way overpredicted here. $200 million seems likely, but won't touch $300 million.

Pirates 2:
5 - $400 million+
4 - $350 million+
3 - $300 million+
2 - $250 million+
1 - $200 million+

This one has the biggest chance to both surprise and disappoint. Will it be Shrek 2 or BTTF 2? Who knows.

Interesting idea. I'll give it a shot.

Mission: Impossible III
5: $250+ million
4: $230+ million
3: $180+ million
2: $150+ million
1: $120+ million

Poseidon
5: $175+ million
4: $150+ million
3: $120+ million
2: $100+ million
1: $80+ million

The Da Vinci Code
5: $300+ million
4: $250+ million
3: $210+ million
2: $180+ million
1: $150+ million

Over the Hedge
5: $220+ million
4: $200+ million
3: $170+ million
2: $140+ million
1: $100+ million

X-Men: The Last Stand
5: $260+ million
4: $230+ million
3: $215+ million
2: $190+ million
1: $170+ million

Cars
5: $275+ million
4: $250+ million
3: $225+ million
2: $200+ million
1: $175+ million

Superman Returns
5: $300+ million
4: $250+ million
3: $220+ million
2: $200+ million
1: $180+ million

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
5: $400+ million
4: $350+ million
3: $300+ million
2: $275+ million
1: $225+ million

The prices have been set for the first round of the HSX options:

These options are usually designed to be close to level 3 on the benchmark scale, within average expectations:

Mission: Impossible 3 - H$200
Poseidon - H$120
Over the Hedge - H$150
The Da Vinci Code - H$220
X-Men: The Last Stand - H$200
The Break-Up - H$70
Cars - H$200
The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift - H$70
The Lake House - H$70
Nacho Libre - H$70

However, some of these seem like they could be quite a bit off. Break Up and Cars should be higher. But its quite interesting that they gave The Da Vinci Code the highest option price, I would have thought Cars, X3, or MI3 might have tied as the top option price.

Currently, HSX prices for some of these films are:

The Lake House LAKEH H$55.21 -0.76
Nacho Libre NACHO H$66.32
The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift FFUR3 H$69.32 +1.0
The Break-Up BRKUP H$71.67 +2.5
Poseidon POSDN H$109.49 +2.52
Over the Hedge HEDGE H$133.38 +0.63
Cars CARS H$173.55 0
Mission: Impossible 3 MISS3 H$175.88 -3.15
X-Men: The Last Stand XMEN3 H$201.07 +1.26
The Da Vinci Code DVINC H$219.92

To get the opening weekend from these prices that HSX is currently corresponding to, divide by 2.8, which related to the 3day opening weekend gross. X3 still has a ways to build and its price should go much higher as its release approaches. The Da Vinci Code is overpriced, as I don't see it opening to $80 m, and its currently the 2nd highest priced stock on the market (behind POTC 2, which is currently at about a $88 m opening weekend and rising).

MI3's Yahoo reviews are coming in, and many are not sure what to expect for it tommorow. Get in your MI3 benchmarks before numbers come up!

• Mission: Impossible III (Par.) - 5/5 ------ 3,,,,I'll go with 220mil

5 $261 m +
4 $226 m-$260 m
3 $180 m-$225 m
2 $141 m-$180 m
1 Under $140 m

• The Da Vinci Code (Sony) - 5/19 ------- 4,,,,250mil

5 $300 m +
4 $241 m-$300 m
3 $181 m-$240 m
2 $131 m-$180 m
1 Under $130 m

• Over the Hedge (DW) - 5/19 -------- 3,,,,175mil

5 $250 m +
4 $201 m-$250 m
3 $151 m-$200 m
2 $116 m-$150 m
1 Under $115 m

• X-Men: The Last Stand (Fox) - 5/26 --------3-4,,,,,,,240-260mil

5 $275 m +
4 $241 m-$275 m
3 $196 m-$240 m
2 $141 m-$195 m
1 Under $140 m

• Cars (BV) - 6/9 ------------ 2,,,,,185mil

5 $325 m +
4 $266 m-$325 m
3 $226 m-$265 m
2 $176-$225 m
1 Under $175 m

• Superman Returns (WB) - 6/30 ----------- 4,,,,,,,290mil

5 $300 m +
4 $240 m-$300 m
3 $176 m-$240 m
2 $141 m-$175 m
1 Under $140 m

• Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (BV) - 7/7 ----------2-3,,,,,,,,,290-310mil

5 $400 m +
4 $336-$400 m
3 $291 m-$335 m
2 $201 m-$290 m
1 Under $200 m

Other than Trixter and Zingaling's $120 m totals, everyone else would consider MI3 "Absolute mess and disappointment of huge proportions (Huge Disappointment)" (level 1) if it goes under $140m. I already hear people in the Friday numbers thread saying "I wouldn't call MI3 a flop," but as the benchmarks show, it clearly is reaching near bottom expectations so far...

All the more reason for people to put in their benchmarks! It gives you something to argue with people about down the road when they are "re-interpreting" a film's performance compared to their expectations.

Next up is Poseidon!

I'm going to try one more time. I'm not going to rewrite my comments a fourth time >:-(

Superman
5 - > 350
4 - 280-350
3 - 235-280
2 - 195-235
1 - <195

Projected 3800 TC. I wouldn't be surprised if it increased. However, I'm just not feeling it. The people to whom I've talked outside of the internet haven't shown much enthusiasm. It's more of a "Oh, yeah that'd be nice to see". Not much of a blockbuster vibe. It seems many of ym friends were not fans of the second movie. But I've read a few reports here about people building up lots of hype, and early screenings (AICN) have said it was a very good film. I'll probably end up eating crow on this one more than any of the others...even POTC. Hm.

POTC2
5 - >420
4 - 365-420
3 - 305-365
2 - 250-305
1 - <250>340
4 - 280-340
3 - 220-280
2 - 160-220
1 - <160>300
4 - 250-300
3 - 200-250
2 - 150-200
1 - <150>270
4 - 240-270
3 - 200-240
2 - 140-200
1 - <140>230
4 - 205-230
3 - 160-205
2 - 120-160
1 - <120

I'm totally not feeling it for this one either. Regardless, Dreamworks seems to have this CG movie release scheme down.

X3
5 - >300
4 - 260-300
3 - 215-260
2 - 150-215
1 - <150

Anything below the first movie is a big disappointment. Period. Especially since this movie's predecessor set an opening TC record and opened to, what, third on the all time OW list? Prime release date, and the competition around it isn't direct. This has a solid chance at having something that resembles legs. Maybe.

asdtfgajstyrwq!TQERTWERT!WRWRET#@$%^WRHERJTTWDFF

What the fuck is wrong with this forum?

MI3 might be able to get to $150 million. We don't know what it's Saturday number will be (if it increases from Friday, it will probably top $50 million for the weekend) and WOM seems to be good. It should be able to pass $140 million and get at least close to $150 million.

Sommie, I don't know what you're doing. It's just you and it's just this topic. Weird.

Poseidon:

5 $170 m +
4 $130 m-$170 m
3 $100-$130 m
2 $75-$100 m
1 Under $75 m

We have 5 Poseidon benchmarks, get yours in!

Eh, I'm feeling different on Poseidon now. I said $80-100 million would be an absolute disappointment before, but now, that looks like it can be considered a mild disappointment. It has the potential to be a lot worse.

Looks like MI:3 will be a -1

MI3 is looking at 1-2 level, while Poseidon will likely end up at 1 level. Pretty bad so far...

The sub-50% drop this weekend for MI3 looks good for its final total, while Poseidon looks to be a 0 on my list.

3-4 for Da Vinci I think, -1 for Poseidon.

The budget of Superman has varied immensely, but I'll go with mojo's $260 m. The bar is definitely high for it.

The bar on POTC 2 is pretty high now. Much higher even than when alot of these benchmarks were made imo.

I'd say the average prediction is around 340, which I think isn't too different from the average three months ago. It's just now, it's much more polarized, whereas months ago, it was actually pretty consistant across the board.