thats besides the point. these type of "cgi fest movies" typically do well overseas. kong got 340 million overseas. troy got 370 million. day after tomorrow got 360 million. war of the worlds got 350 million.mr.,and mrs. smith got 270 million.

No it's not besides the point. The point is that when we are comparing Superman to other movies, the most obvious comparison is the other films of the same genre, targeted to the exactly the same audience. If ALL the previous Superman movies, Batman movies, Spiderman movies, X-men movies, etc, perform like this... Then we have all the reason to expect Superman to follow the tradition. These are all big, epic, action and SFX driven event movies. Sure, Superman Returns MIGHT be the first movie ever to break the tradition, but there isn't any reason to assume so, except wishful thinking.

When predicting B.O, it's reasonable to use past performance of similar films as a basis for predictions. This is what we all do here. If we wouldn't be doing it, it would be pretty pointless to do prediction in the first place, since everything would be based on a hunch, without any logical argument to back it up.

Since SR seems to be stopping at around 190 million domestically, the worldwide maximum stands at 422 millon. Assuming that it performs at 45/55 percentage ratio, making more overseas than domestically. The worst case scenario is 55/45, meaning 345 million - But I think it has more appeal overseas most other superhero movies. The most likely scenario is pretty much exactly 400 million.

The only question mark - as always - is Japan. If the character and the movie hits the nerve there, it might travel to 450-500 million worldwide. I don't know if Superman has any major cultural significance in Japan, more so than other superheros. It might have - I guess nobody knows in here at the forums. Since Japan is world's 2nd biggest market, it can alone change the final B.O a great deal.

ugh. forget it, guys. if you dont understand that the huge special effects driven filmslike KONG STAR WARS POTTER WAR OF WORLDS DAY AFTER TOMORROW MATRIX, ect. do big aorund the globe mainly cause they all crave to see the special effects, im not gonna argue it.

If that is the case, why "Huge, special effects driven films" like SUPERMAN 1 & 2, BATMAN 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & BATMAN BEGINS, X-MEN 1 & 2 & 3, SPIDERMAN 1 & 2, FANTASTIC FOUR, DAREDEVIL, HULK, ETC, don't make ever more than 55% of their gross overseas?

THE FACT:

Superhero movies don't do as well abroad, as other action/SFX driven films. That's the fact. You're argument seems to be based on the assumption, that Superman Returns is not a superhero movie, and that it would be more comparable to Day After Tomorrow or King Kong than to previous Superman movies, Batman movies, Spiderman movies, X-Men movies, etc.

That argument makes no sense whatsoever.

you do know superman the movie inflates to 470,000 million overseas, dont you? so sayinghes big overseas, could be somewhat of an understatement if you wanted to go his past movies overseas grosses.

What exactly don't you understand?

I repeat:

SUPERHERO MOVIES ALWAYS MAKE ONLY 45-55% OF THEIR GROSS OVERSEAS. THIS MEANS THAT IF THE FILM STOPS AT 190 MILLION DOMESTICALLY, IT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE 400 MILLION WORLDWIDE.

Do you understand? I'm talking about percentages. I have said it so many times, repeatedly, that I don't know what is so hard to understand.

For example: Spiderman made 418 million overseas, unadjusted. That was 50,9% of it's gross. You do understand? The overseas performance of supehero movies is ALWAYS relative to their domestig gross. So since Superman is only going to make 190 million domestically, it's NOT going to suddenly make 400 million overseas.

BTW, your adjusted-to-inflation argument makes no sense, since according to the same logic Superman Returns should make 367 million domestically, since that's what the original did - adjusted. And it's making only 190 million.

i didnt say it would make 470 million overseas. i just you were saying superhero movies only make 45/55, and suprman the movie with inflation made 367/483, which would be 42/58.

SUPERMAN:

TOTAL LIFETIME GROSSES
Domestic: $134,218,018 44.7%
+ Foreign: $166,000,000 55.3%

= Worldwide: $300,218,018

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=superman.htm

inflated da percentage is dif.

367
483

It should be exactly the same. Percentage remains the same, regardless of inflation. If the adjusted numbers don't hold, then they have been calculated wrong. Superman opened in December 1978 in USA, but in early 1979 in most other countries. So the domestic adjusted gross has probably been calculated with 1978 inflation, but overseas gross with 1979 inflation.

If you want accurate numbers percantage wise, you have to look at unadjusted numbers.

o i c. my b.

I'm thinking POTC2 will have a 120 ratio.

I'm going with 118.65.

105

mwha

It's gonna get like 7000 reviews

1 million (first ever)

I'm thinking 200 with 10,000+ reviews.

I'm thinking 150 and 8000 reviews.

So, how the heck is Yahoo supposed to help this week when ratio predictions are ranging fromm 100 to 200? lol.

PEACE, Mike.

It's not really a fanboy film, and it has more families and seniors then something like X3. So, I doubt it will be much different then Spider-Man 2.

EDIT: Also, it has not been inflated on the yahoo buzz index in comparision to most comic book movies.

It can help something, especially the extreme boundaries, to see if it's doing weaker than DP expected (say the pace is only pointing to 5000 reviews) or really going to be astronomical number (10,000 reviews).

The original has nearly 150,000 reviews now (More then any other film, I think), hence why I predict a high review count.

That's one of the reasons I predict well over 500m. It never had a high ratio; it added a huge number of reviews on DVD.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest 54, +54, A-

A little behind Sith's pace.