I have a very unscientific analysis of this prediction.

When you think you have the box office figured out, you don't. This happens so often. I know we are blessed at this site with some of the sharpest box office prognosticating minds anywhere...we really do. There are so many people here who can analyse grosses down to % points. But most of the films that made piles of money are films that no one saw coming. Titanic, Star Wars, Shrek 2, ET, Passion, Jurassic Park and even Spiderman. No one could predict this kind of gross. Now predicting that Pirates will make between 280-320 is pretty standard stuff. But because everyone thinks it will make a shit load more, it more than likely will not. The law of probability says so.

Totally agree Baumer. Hence why those huge predictions are silly

Right now there are only two active franchises that can command MEGA grosses ($350m+) and they are Shrek and Spiderman. The jury is still out on POTC. Its a contended. But so was Reloaded.

Reloaded was over 60% male, didn't have families or teens, didn't have comedy, and didn't have old people. It had nothing on POTC.

POTC2 will beat Reloaded no doubt. It has a wider audience - but not as wide as Shrek's. Reloaded has more hype and build up though. It created its own philosophy. It did capture teens too. One thing they do have in common is the "cliffhanger" ending. Lets see how that pans out - especially for POTC3.

Regardless - I have more faith in Disney than I do WB - so POTC has that benefit.

So having said all that - Reloaded will have the better opening (4day vs 4day) but POTC2 will have the better final gross.

I think the cliffhanger won't work in the same way as the MR cliffhanger did. While it did have a cliffhanger, Dead Man's Chest most definitely could have been a standalone film, albeit with a few moderations to the ending. Not to say that the cliffhanger felt forced or tacky. It's not as...pressing...as Matrix or Back to the Future. I got a Fellowship of the Ring vibe to it.

I have always thought that the film would have a huge OD and a pretty big (107.5) OW, but that is not and never was the question. I just don't think it will sustain the pace and it will drop like every other blockbuster and it will settle with just less than 3 10.

And unless this film blows everyone away, it could suffer the same fate as Jurassic Park. Huge first film, massive OW for the sequel, but down in gross. It happened once, it will happen again, just a matter of time.

Having now seen the film - I dont see the ending hurting it at all. It works well, is light hearted and not "pressing" as you said. It can be a standalone but will work as a trilogy. I thought the ending was handled very well actually.

Ths thread will BURN!! ! ! ! !!!!!! ! ! ! ! !

Worst thread ever.

Pirates WILL get over $120 mil this weekend... then at LEAST $60 mil the next... and then at LEAST another $30 mil... and then at LEAST $15 mil... and then at LEAST $8 mil... and then at LEAST $4 mil... then $2 mil... then $1 mil...

That's $240 mil on weekends ALONE.

It will average at LEAST $5 mil in it's first 10 weekDAYS... that's at LEAST another $50 mil... to $290 mil...

Is it gonna fall off the face of the planet or something?

This club is just as impossible as BJ's.

hell, after all these bad reviews, i am more confident than ever that this will fall short of 310m. i'm in, baumer!

No you silly goose. I don't think Pirates will beat RotK. I said that if PotC had great WOM, it would battle RotK. PotC2 does not have that WOM, so it will not battle RotK. It should fall between FotR and TTT. And hey I like my loonie comparisons.

But may I suggest that we stop all the talk about sequel rules. There are too many types of franshices and sequels now. You can't predict a movie on the basis of its sequelness anymore.

Where the hell did you get that assinine statement from?

It's not impossible. I have given reasons why i think it will happen.

And BJ has given his.

Us PoTC supporters have FAR more reasons why it will make more than you doubters have why it will make less.

DP07 has given a full thread of reasons (see "Why POTC2 will beat Shrek 2" thread) and he's predicting $550 million total. I don't think that's even possible, but so far, early reports are reporting the exact opposite of what's happening here.

I'll admit it isn't impossible, but it's extremely unlikely.

I'm not a doubter. I'm predicting 307 mill. That is massive. I'm also not delusional.

I deduced it from the RT reviews. I don't think the WOM will be Reloaded-terrible, but I just don't see it having WOM on par with RotK numbers (or maybe not even TTT numbers).

RT is critics... RT scores are only occasionaly right on with WOM...

You cannot determine WOM from RT reviews. Plain and simple. Critics so rarely are in line with what audiences enjoy. Based on the crowd reports thus far, I'd say that WOM is pretty good. Not as good as the first, or the LOTR films, but definitely better than Shrek 2. And we all saw how that turned out...

This weekend will be huge, no doubt, but the coming weeks will tell the story.

Everyone under 400m is a doubter. Under 350m you only have haters. j/k

I am even more convinced now that this film will make less. The weekend will be huge, but with wOM, it might just kill it.

And you're getting the idea that it has bad WOM from...? I haven't seen a single indication of that.