in my area hype is big and bigger then x-men 3 so i see an higher opening. Imo its not accurate to sit in one area and think that thats its the same for the whole country. So in reality one of us will be right sunday.

Well you still see 90+ million and i see 108.5 million so its a ten million difference. However i think spideys record is more threatnted then ever before. Why? To break spideys record pirates does not need to be more hyped, because Spidermans opening is like 130 million today, so there could be a chance of pirates getting 15 million less and breaking the record.


okay redspear ill give my final perdiction for the weekend day by day and you give yours.
I see 108.5 million
Friday:39 million
Saturday: 38 million -3%
Sunday: 31.5 million -17%

why such a low sunday drop? every major movie opening in July or late summer (apart from July 4 weekend) droped less then 20% on sunday.

Our Predictions aren't that seperate from each others. In fact your prediction is close to my high end prediction. as you say our arguments about hype our fairly limited.

One because of location(though since we both live in large metropolitian areas I would say to disregard what we see where we live in making predictions is not realy helpful.

Two because of bias. I may not be able to see the hype for this movie because I am not looking forward to it. Or others who are looking forward to it may unintentionally exagerate the hype(like superman).

Pirates of the Carribean 2 - $113.72m

come on break it down day by day !

Fri, sat, sun

Final Prediction

Fri 35 million
Sat 34 million
Sun 27 million

so you see a low sunday drop as well. This movie can get a sunday about as high as Spidermans.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/da ... Sun&p=.htm

Because I expect a larger female audience after the internet rush is over with. I also expect legs that are approximately 3.2 which is stillv ery good. IMO also reasonable for a final gross of 320.

Fri-50.1
Sat-45.1
Sun-30.2

its not falling that much on a Summer Sunday. -33.2%???

Fandango/Movietickets.com media quotes are absolutely useless.

If you took Movietickets.com statements regarding Superman Returns as any sort of barometer of interest, you'd think it was going to do a 200 million dollar 5-day.

Their only intention in writing these press releases/giving quotes to media is to get their company's name in the press so they can get more people to their site. It's borderline disinformation.

BOR:

1 Pirates of the Caribbean 2 $120.0 m NEW
2 Superman Returns $25.0 m -52%
3 The Devil Wears Prada $15.0 m -45%
4 Click $10.0 m -50%
5 Cars $8.5 m -42%
6 Nacho Libre $3.2 m -52%
7 The Lake House $2.7 m -42%
8 The Fast & the Furious 3 $1.7 m -62%
8 The Break-Up $1.7 m -45%
10 Waist Deep $1.5 m -57%

That BOR (boxoffice report) and not BOP (boxofficeprophets)

Oops. At least report has P in it too, I guess.

WOW! X3 has the 2nd highest single day boxoffice in history ($45m friday).

i bet Potc2 sets no 'major' record.

$106m OW

that will be the only record it breaks.

It also will hold the record as biggest movie of this year.

Also another less known record is most 10 million+ days in a rows. Spiderman 2 had 8 days. Pirates if it stays above 10 million over the weekdays it can get 10 milion plus till the 2nd Sunday or 10 days.

Didn't you expect Superman Returns to break every record possible last weekend, and it didn't?

don't remind me

We'll see what happens

My top ten

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest 125.4
2. Superman Returns 25.6
3. The Devil Wears Prada 15.0
4. Click 9.7
5. Cars 7.5
6. Nacho Libre 3.3
7. The Lake House 3.0
8. The Break-Up 2.0
9. The Da Vinci Code 1.5
10. The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift 1.3

http://www.leesmovieinfo.net/Predictions.php

$130.5 million

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>


Their statements can still be used, but you have to read into them for the real story. When they were touting 25% of their ticket sales were for SUPERMAN RETURNS as a good thing, you could compare that to their statements for PASSION OF THE CHRIST, NARNIA, HARRY POTTER, STAR WARS which all had had 75% of ticket sales or higher a week out and determine
that with Summer having more than one big movie dropping that down a bit, that still wasn't the kind of performance indicating an opening weekend box office close to those.

Yeah they can spin it whatever way the author of the article needs as a counterbalance to one he has already. If he has one negative quote in the article, he'll go to them for positive spin, and vice versa.

1. POTC2 $95 mil

Updated:

POTC2 - $122.3m

BOG predicted $104m.