The original was still well-liked and 5 years is not much.

And if you look at JP2, again, massive opening, but wOM killed it. If POTC lacks and is missing that lightning in the bottle that the first had, it might go the way of Temple of Doom, AOTC and JP2 and BTTF2.

This is all true. I also wouldnt want to write off Superman just yet. It will put in a dent just big enough. If we had a 2 week break between the two I'd be thinking POTC2 would pull out a 100mil+ opening. I'm thinking a bit lower in and around 85mil. I'm still thinking it will earn right around what the first did...

100 million is possibile because there a lot of people wanting to see this film and Superman will only be around 23 million on its 2nd weekend.

B+ Cinemascore and B at Yahoo. That's mediocre, and actually below average for a blockbuster. You need at least an A- at Cinemascore and a B+ at Yahoo to expect an increase for a sequel (although a minority do it even with MIB reactions). Plus, MIB was a hyped blockbuster before DVD, so few waited to see it.

The thing people don't take into consideration is that POTC's 305m gross means it would have earned 500m if things worked as they did from 85-99 and 600m if 75-84. The 305m is just what's left for an original movie when many wait for DVD.

What you guys predict is unprecedented: for an original movie with great WOM in the DVD era to have less then a 30% increase for the sequel. There is nothing to indicate that franchises earning over 300m have more trouble increasing. Before DVDs sequels of all sizes tended to decrease.

Anyway, JP was from a different era, it was a hyped movie that set the OW record, and WOM was much weaker then POTC. Cinemascore was the same, but it only has a low B+ at yahoo.

135m?

Here we go again...

You can show me all evidence there is, never ever will you convince me that WOM was "much weaker" than POTC's.

JP2 got the OW record (a sign of great WOM of JP), yet droped in total because it was a weaker movie (expectations played a role here, too) and more importantly, didn't have the novelty factor (more of the same vibe), all that could play against POTC2 as well.

JP2 was supposed to be the big box office film of the year. It was the first sequel to the original JP which made almost $1 bil worldwide. Instead of being the biggest film of the year JP2 wasn't even the biggest film of the summer.It ended up a distant third to Titanic with MIB finishing second.

You cannot use Yahoo! to determine grades and scores for movies older than the system itself (older than by like 5 years). It's like using Rotten Tomatoes to find the "grade" for Empire Strikes Back. It's tainted (positively and negatively) by movie history, fads, dated special effects, etc.


Attack of the Clones?
Harry Potter?


This exception is still more rare than not, and aside from the Lord of the Rings, Shrek, X2, Matrix Reloaded, Saw this tends to still be the general trend. I can't think of a smaller sequel that has grossed more than the original off the top of my head (other than Saw). They are still pretty rare. Even the biggies like Spider-Man 2 decreased.

I mean it may happen to maybe 1 or 2 sequels a year out of the 15 or so? That's not something to hold on to too tightly.

Weren't you the guy arguing that The Ring had mediocre WOM because of its Cinemascore rating?

http://www.boxofficereport.com/wbon/forecast.shtml

they have pirates at 120 million, Very interesting!

http://www.leesmovieinfo.net/Predictions.php

Lee's Movie Info has Pirates at $130.5 million. The battle begins!

hmm if the perdict that high can they really be wrong by more then 15-20 million dollars??

Because of Yahoo, Cinemascore, and Netflix.

But, what's your point?

I have a quesiton, if POTC grosses 130-150 this weekend, does that leave any room for other films? Really, does it?

That Yahoo, Cinemascore, and Netflix aren't particularly reliable when said "mediocre WOM" flick manages a nearly 10x multiplier, something that's not just unheard of, but basically impossible for a horror flick in wide release.

'Some movie under some $' club? I'm in by default.

The more I think of it, I should have stayed with my 6% drop. But 307 sounds good.

Indeed. I mean its third weekend was bigger than its first!

I still don't see the allure of POTC. Yeah, the original was an OK time at the movies. But that's it. I don't understand the great WOM or how it got to $300m.

Anyway, the above may be coloring my prediction, but I don't see this passing $300 million.

400m in less than 20 days

I mean, that was a joke right?

18 days to 400m
24 days to 450m
32 days to 500m
50 days to 550m

here let me update this for you

18 days to 235 million
24 days to 285 million
32 days to 300 million
50 days to DVD

also note not of those won their respective years either.