4 more reviews added and pirates is 13/17 so 77%

Its wierd BBC says it full of action but there is too much action?? 2/5

ign gives 4/5 stars

Hollywood.com gives 3.5/4

this movie will stay fresh and above 70%.

superman will get around 29 due to soooooooo many pirate sellouts.

That's why there are so many screens.

either way theyll all sell out. 140 million+.

1.Pirats 2 - 137.1m
2.Sups - 20.45m -61%
3.Prada - 15.4m -43%
4.Click - 10.6m -47%
5.Cars - 8.3m -43%

Actually, I agree with this. There is always spillover froma sold out movie. Anyone thinking Superman is going to drop more than the usual 50% doesn't realize alot of people are going to show up in theatres already in the mood for an action movie, and they're going to have to pick up Superman and Cars, and to a lesser extent Da Vinci Code, when all the shows from 5 to 1 AM of Pirates are already sold out.

Devil Wears Prada won't drop more than even 40 percent, either.

1. Pirates of the Caribbean 2 $110m

Lee's predictions

http://www.leesmovieinfo.net/Predictions.php

So, they expect Cars to drop 33%, but Devil Wears Prada to decrease 59%? Riiiggghhht...

is it getting 4250 theaters??

http://www.boxofficereport.com/wbon/forecast.shtml

They perdict 120 million for pirates and also Pirates rises on HSX
Pirates of the Carib H$310.46 +1.26

Looking at data from big opener in july i have noticed no movie droped more then 20% on sunday. So opening weekend has gone higher.
Friday: 39 million
Saturday:38 million -3%
Sunday: 31.5 million -17%

to 108.5 million

Early Predictions

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - $127 million
2. Superman Returns - $21 million
3. The Devil Wears Prada - $15 million
4. Click - $10 million
5. Cars - $8.5 million
6. Nacho Libre - $3.5 million
7. The Lake House - $3 million
8. The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift - $2 million
9. Waist Deep - $1.5 million
10. The Break-Up - $1.5 million

"Richard Horgan, film commentator for Fandango.com, said one of every three advance tickets sold by the online ticket service this week was for "Dead Man's Chest." That is roughly twice the rate posted by its precursor, "Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl," in 2003."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060705/film_nm/media_boxoffice_dc;_ylt=AmvFgOODTBYrAqEdEc_vJ3gwFxkF;_ylu=X3oDMTBjMHVqMTQ4BHNlYwN5bnN1YmNhdA--

Doesn't sound too hot to me. A sequel, with tons more hype, fanbase, opening on a Friday, in frontloaded 2006, that is expected to open to twice as much anyways.

Decent, but not great I'd say.

it has a fanbase but not the loyal fanbase, meaning a more spread out weekend, so it can be a huge opener with decent legs. So it will likely not dive on Saturday.

Shack, if this movie doesn not well, we can just write off the boxoffice.

I think people are forgetting that the audience is not like a "fanboy" type of audience. It's the general audience, and I don't recall them being big advance ticket buyers. Especially days in advance.

1.POTC2: 110
2.SR:28
3.TDWP:15
4.Click:10.1
5.8.6

You know Zing I expect a huge weekend. 96 million is pretty damn big by any strecth of the word. However if you want 130 million + you need to have a fanbase that is itching to go see it and wants to get as many tickets as possible. Also lots of people pre order tickets today not just Fanboys.

If it loses 10 million due to a fanbase that doesn't rush out to see it on midnight how is it going to Challenge Siths opening day?

Before you mention Shrek 2 consider this Shrek 2 audience had a higher percentage of families(anywhere fromn 3-5 tickets per group) then PoTC. While PoTC does have a larger family audience then say the Matrix it is not nearly as large as shrek.

One last thing. Before Shrek 2 came out there was a lot of chatter for it outside of the net. There really wasn't that much on hte net(this is called hte general audience). People malligned its opening day of 11 million as a flop.

This time around 90% of the hype i see for this film is on the net and not s much around the city I live in. This would tell me that this is a fanboy film. As such I would expect to see higher Midnight Sales.

With the exception of Sith or RoTK or MXR you do have to wait until the last half day before the release to really see the sell outs.

For some good news apparantely it is selling quite well at the AMC Van Ness and Metreon.

Well Pirates 2 will at least set the record for highest predicted gross from the box office websites. I mean comingsoon.net has it at $118 mil and now Lee has it at $130 mil. I wonder how high BOG and BOM will go?

I think Brandon will probably predict 112 or something in that neighborhood.

Try it now predict what the prediction wlll be for PoTC at BO websites( we will know the answer sooner then the actual gross.

see redspear people said Superman had alot of talk in the public but i didn't hear any talk about it.
Such general assumputions aren't very accurate and really can be differnt from person to person.

I have seen a lot of talk in the public especially in schools and among teens. People were talking about seeing this film back in May.

Now school ended so i cannot see how much talk there is amoung teens now.

I will say 60% general public (TV,Radio,Stores,Billboards,Talk amoung people) and 40% internet.

Pirates is also an hour longer than Shrek2...

I think redspear you forget Pirates will likely have a larger teen or tween crowd then both films so i think it will end up around shrek 2's opening weekend.

I didn't see much for talk for Superman either(I gave it the benefit of a 70 million opening which was way to high). But there was a lot ofor X3.

I have yet to see a single Billboard for Pirates, zero talk(I volunteer in a public clinic, and always talk to the court reporters and such during breaks when I am at work). I haven't heard much on the radio either, that leaves trailers and TV's for my prediction. I don't watch TV so I can't speak to the effect that will have since even if I did I wouldn't be able ot compare it to other films.

Some Disclaimers,

One X3 had a scene which dismantled the Golden Gae Bridge( I Live in SF that may of artificaly pushed up talk here). Two SF is really a small city(but major metropolitian area). It may be seeing a bigger ad campaign in San Jose because more people live there. I find both possible but not wholly likely.

Nope that is where I get my 96 million from. Teens and tweens can go in varying groups from 2-6 people. Families can be anywhere from 3-8(5 being average). With a family you may have people come along who may not want to see the film with teens and tweens who are more independent of a family unit they may just not go.

96 million is high number(I can see it going up to 110 million but i would not bet on it). One that is tough to fill on even 4k screens.

The female part of the audience may not be akin to midnight shows and for this film I imagine it makes up a larger number of people who will see it than the average blockbusters.