I'm in.

Unlike Superman I feel confident with my predict.

(Superman I saw it as a hit or miss, last year I had it at 200 million, it jumped to about 240 million though)

Unlike Superman I feel confident with my predict.

(Superman I saw it as a hit or miss, last year I had it at 200 million, it jumped to about 240 million though)

i stay out, but i remember 300 million is a lot of tickets and its much harder to reach 300 million even though in 2004 and 2003 it looked so so easy.

Ha, I think it will make 310m in 12 days 80-85m tickets sold overall

Nope.

You see, one of the reasons I think it will not be the uber hit ( not that 300 mill is tiddlywinks) is because there have been a lot of films to comeout since last summer, and not many of them have been massive hits. Is the box office taking a turn now? Is it really heading more towards a DVD market? My initial prediction for this film was a 6% drop, just like Spidey to Spiey 2. That would have given it 286. I think with ticket prices being a bit more now, it will have a chance to do more than 300, but not much more. So I'm staying with my 307.

well considering it still has a great chance of going in the other direction because the first one was really liked, and the reviews are about the same as the last one (RT at 73% and its going up) and considering it was seen by many people outside of theaters and the fact there is still to be an event film this year. I think Pirates can become an Uber-Blockbuster.

It's not really that there haven't been mega-hits. Narnia came pretty damn close to $300 million and Sith blew past it, coming close to even $400 million. When the right film is released, people will see it.

Disney are masters at advertsing. they made Narnia a film not so know to the public as large as Hp4!!!

THe Ads are really starting to get everywhere and i think ads are going to be going this whole week. The major stars will start on the talking shows. So the Marketing has been good.

I agree. Films this year so far just weren't good enough and/or generated enough interest to reach uber-blockbuster status.

Regarding Spiderman, unlike Spiderman i believe Pirates hasn't reached its maximum potential yet.

I agree with you about Sith, I mentioned that in my post (films since last summer)...and yes Narnia came close, so that is why i think it will do more than 300, but not too much more. Then again this could make a mockery of my prediction in its first three weeks. Wouldn't be the first time.

I'm gonna join this one because the box office this summer has been uneventful for the most part.

thats my logic as well

I think all these $450+ million predictions are kind of unrealistic. But, I think under $300 million is also a bit unrealistic too. We're looking at a film that's a sequel to one of the most leggy blockbusters of the decade. The WOM on this one was incredible. It grossed a massive $305 million in the box-office. Then, when released on DVD, it sold an even more massive number of DVD's, and the rentals were huge too. It expanded its audience on DVD, just like other films with successful sequels (Shrek 2, The Bourne Supremacy, X2). I don't think Spider-Man is a fair comparison because, well, I think it reached its max potential in theaters. I don't think there were as many new viewers on DVD as the films I just mentioned because pretty much everyone saw it or didn't want to. It really couldn't go anywhere but down, because it's not like everybody liked it. And the drop wasn't harsh either, showing that the fanbase was still there, but it really won't ever top that $400 million mark again. Pirates has grown in audiences since it was released on DVD, it reaches to ALL demographics and it has one hell of a bankable star, Johnny Depp.

No...

Im going 2 make my final prediction here in this thread.....130 Million opening, 386 Total.

true last time only my sister and 1 my cousins and 2 of my friends saw this in theaters.

Now, it will be, my sister, 5 of my cousins, and atleast 8 of my friends (i haven't asked the others). So in my little group of family and friends there are many people wanting to see this. Mostly everyone else saw the first on DVD and TV.

Exactly manny, everyone who saw it in theatres will see this one. THen the dvd was huge!!! I know the first time the movie came out i went with 3 friends. This time im plannin on buying tickets early for about 20.

BTW..Johnny Depp is not "one hell of a bankable start." He became well known on a massive scale after Pireates. But he was always just a well known actor before with an impressive resume of non box office hits before hand...kind of like Leo before Titanic.

The film will make a great box office hit, no doubt, but how much more than 300, that is the question.

Is this like that time you predicted X3 to miss 200m because even the "stupid summer audience" wouldn't put up with Ratner?

Baumer I think this is the first I have ever been on the same wavelength with you in pre release BO prediction.

i have a feeling that audiences wont enjoy this one as much as the first, leading to rather mixed wom and solid, but not great legs after a massive 100m+ opening. i would say around 350m for now. you have to take into account that i suck when it comes to predicting box office.

After a $100+ million opening weekend this movie had no other way to go than to over $200m. The legs were horrendous. X3 owes everything it got to Singer.

Not my point.

There's always a first time for everything.

Look, my opinion is this: how many films can you really predict to do massive business? I'm not talking about 250-290...I mean more than 300 kind of business. How many films have made 300 mill in their first run? 20 or so? And how many of those did you really see coming? Maybe 5-8? The point is that when you think you are guaranteed money, you're usually not. I'm not saying this won't be big, but 300 or so big, sure? 400 and beyond...not a chance./ Those kind of films are impossible to predict.