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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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excel wrote: are the actuals even in it? showbizdata.net reported false grosses for batman last year twice.opening day and second day. BOM number is in as well, so $21m is pretty much the final. _________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 1:28 pm |
 
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Kenspy
Into the fray
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 12:09 pm
Posts: 1874
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Hm I'm liking this Yahoo thing so far
Nacho
Predicted: 11
Actual: 10.8
Accuracy: 94%
Weekend: No Prediction
Click
Predicted: 15.25
Actual: 14.43
Accuracy: 95%
Weekend: 40.8
Actual: 40.0
Accuracy: 98%
Superman Returns
Predicted: 22.5
Actual (est.): 21
Accuracy: 93%
Weekend: 60.6
5-Day: 96.1
Accuracy: ???
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 1:49 pm |
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mdana
Veteran
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2005 11:07 pm
Posts: 3004
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mdana wrote: I would go more with the Yahoo numbers. Too many of the crowd reports are based on Notfabio's input and his grasp of some basic numbers call his input and knowledge into question on this subject. SR previews can't be X% percentage over BB and then Y% of X3, it creates an imaginary number that doesn't exist. It is either A or B not C-+. Also, many times when he states long movie A or short movie B on Friday his numbers/projections are just flat out wrong. Take out his posts out and using the rest it is a mixed bag. LA is not the rest of country and too many of these crowd reports rely on LA's numbers. My friend saw it tonight in DC and he said it did much better than Kong or BB and somewhat better than WOTW.
This movie did over $25m. 185 ratio $25.2m And that is why I don't do Yahoo ratios. 
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:32 pm |
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mdana
Veteran
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2005 11:07 pm
Posts: 3004
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 Re: Wow.... Kenspy wrote: notfabio wrote: mdana wrote: I would go more with the Yahoo numbers. Too many of the crowd reports are based on Notfabio's input and his grasp of some basic numbers call his input and knowledge into question on this subject. SR previews can't be X% percentage over BB and then Y% of X3, it creates an imaginary number that doesn't exist. It is either A or B not C-+. Also, many times when he states long movie A or short movie B on Friday his numbers/projections are just flat out wrong. Take out his posts out and using the rest it is a mixed bag. LA is not the rest of country and too many of these crowd reports rely on LA's numbers. My friend saw it tonight in DC and he said it did much better than Kong or BB and somewhat better than WOTW.
This movie did over $25m. 185 ratio $25.2m I feel the love. Those of us predicting seriously appreciate your input every week. Please don't hesitate to make predictions because a kid doesn't like the number you come up with  Listen kid, I am old enough to be your father. My HSX port is not great but it is over $350m in less than 2 years and I don't spend that much time on it like I know others do. I read notfabios stuff all the time-"Nacho Libre $30+m weekend", etc. Fabio is a good source and I am not knocking him. I am just critical of reading too much into his posts and his posts were all over the place on the preview numbers.
notfabio please don't take my post as some sort of attack, I wrote it as mild criticism, more pointed at posters reading too much into it than really at you.
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:41 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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1209 so far today with about 400 written ones, so look like it's just one of those high-written-review movies, at least at the beginning.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:58 pm |
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notfabio
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:30 pm
Posts: 437
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Re: Wow.... mdana wrote: Kenspy wrote: notfabio wrote: mdana wrote: I would go more with the Yahoo numbers. Too many of the crowd reports are based on Notfabio's input and his grasp of some basic numbers call his input and knowledge into question on this subject. SR previews can't be X% percentage over BB and then Y% of X3, it creates an imaginary number that doesn't exist. It is either A or B not C-+. Also, many times when he states long movie A or short movie B on Friday his numbers/projections are just flat out wrong. Take out his posts out and using the rest it is a mixed bag. LA is not the rest of country and too many of these crowd reports rely on LA's numbers. My friend saw it tonight in DC and he said it did much better than Kong or BB and somewhat better than WOTW.
This movie did over $25m. 185 ratio $25.2m I feel the love. Those of us predicting seriously appreciate your input every week. Please don't hesitate to make predictions because a kid doesn't like the number you come up with Listen kid, I am old enough to be your father. My HSX port is not great but it is over $350m in less than 2 years and I don't spend that much time on it like I know others do. I read notfabios stuff all the time-"Nacho Libre $30+m weekend", etc. Fabio is a good source and I am not knocking him. I am just critical of reading too much into his posts and his posts were all over the place on the preview numbers. notfabio please don't take my post as some sort of attack, I wrote it as mild criticism, more pointed at posters reading too much into it than really at you. Well to be honest, I did take it a bit personally, but then I also had a rough and very long day, so thanks for following up on your initial post.
Scott and Xiayun are a lot better at projecting then I am, I won't argue that and I would never be able to do well in a BO Derby competition.
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:13 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22182
Location: Places
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fabs needs a hug.
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 7:20 pm |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am
Posts: 3073
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Just rub your belly, excel.  _________________
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 7:20 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Using ratio to project the gross after the opening day has been shown to be unreliable, but just throw some numbers out: Batman Begins had a Thursday ratio of 294.50 after opening day's 171.62 (71.6% increase), while War of the Worlds had 234.92 after opening with 151.11 (55.5% increase). A similar jump in ratio for Superman Returns will be around 350. Seem to be too high. I'll say it should be close to 300.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 7:28 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22182
Location: Places
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lol....*rubs belly*
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 7:29 pm |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am
Posts: 3073
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I see a 315 ratio for Thursday.
_________________
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 7:50 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22182
Location: Places
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thursday should 9-10 million...right? (prediction , i mean  )
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 7:59 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am
Posts: 11130
Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass
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If thats what it ends up with dont expect such a good increase on Friday.
_________________ "People always want to tear you down when you're on top, like Napoleon back in the Roman Empire" - Dirk Diggler
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:02 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22182
Location: Places
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crazy talk.....what do you expect for thursday n friday.
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:04 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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So far it has 1,817 for the day. May get to 3,000, and that'll be $9-10m. Anything higher appears unlikely.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:38 pm |
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Kenspy
Into the fray
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 12:09 pm
Posts: 1874
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Wow this movie is seriously bombing.
The weekend is looking like a mid 40s.
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:14 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15497
Location: Everywhere
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6745, or 2079 for the day. I don't think it will have much more then 2,700 today. 9m makes sense with a ratio near 300.
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 10:39 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40270
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If it makes 9 mil tomorrow, I'll laugh my head off. Supes is dieing quickly.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 10:41 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm
Posts: 8642
Location: Toronto, Canada
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sad i saw i knew it would not do well and now Superman is going to get thrased around by a pirate.
IMO Pirates look much cooler and more fun and much funnier then Superman. Superman looked akward corny and odd. ONly one ad (a little to late) made the movie interesting.
_________________The Dark Prince 
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 10:53 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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excel wrote: thursday should 9-10 million...right? (prediction , i mean ) And you expect Friday to be higher than Wednesday with a $9-10 million Thursday?
It's not going to increase 100%.
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 11:33 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22182
Location: Places
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yeah i do. im leaving on vaca till tuesday, so ill be back to talk then!
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 11:37 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40270
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If it gets 9 mil on Thursday, it could land at 40-45 mil this weekend. That shocks even me, really.
With Pirates 2 it would fall to like 15-17 mil for the second weekend, at which point it's basically finished. If it gets 9 mil on Thursday, 180 mil+ probably won't happen.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 11:40 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm
Posts: 8642
Location: Toronto, Canada
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hope that does not happen for the sake of the box office. Terribile Marketing i blame.
_________________The Dark Prince
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 11:45 pm |
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Squee
Squee
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:01 pm
Posts: 13270
Location: Yuppieville
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Ill say lots of stuff until Friday numbers come out! Whether I believe what I say or not... I'll leave that up to you. _________________Setting most people on fire is wrong.Proud Founder of the "Community of Squee." 
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 11:50 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 12193
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Magnus wrote: I will refuse to post any SR stuff until Friday numbers come out. Or at least I shall try to not post any SR stuff until Friday numbers come out. Doesn't that count as posting SR stuff? Ie posting stuff about not posting superman stuff, is till posting superman stuff.
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 11:55 pm |
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