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trixster
loyalfromlondon
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:31 pm
Posts: 19697
Location: ville-marie
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neo_wolf wrote: I do remember last year when BB and kong came out most were reporting sellouts and what not and were expecting 20mill easy and using yahoo it showed otherwise, i still wont forget the shock and funny excuses when the actual numbers came out. King kong was sold out! its gonna make 20mill easy! Actual:9.8 ...  You see a similar situation with Superman?  _________________Magic Mike wrote: zwackerm wrote: If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes. Same. Algren wrote: I don't think. I predict. 
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:54 am |
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neo_wolf
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:19 pm
Posts: 11028
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trixster wrote: neo_wolf wrote: I do remember last year when BB and kong came out most were reporting sellouts and what not and were expecting 20mill easy and using yahoo it showed otherwise, i still wont forget the shock and funny excuses when the actual numbers came out. King kong was sold out! its gonna make 20mill easy! Actual:9.8 ... You see a similar situation with Superman? Nobody in the crowd report threads are saying its selling out like crazy like with bb and kk.
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:55 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22182
Location: Places
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heres a question; what if theres clogging righ tnow n the next update is like 1000?
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:00 am |
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trixster
loyalfromlondon
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:31 pm
Posts: 19697
Location: ville-marie
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excel wrote: heres a question; what if theres clogging righ tnow n the next update is like 1000? The day is over, excel. Anything else would just count towards Thursday. _________________Magic Mike wrote: zwackerm wrote: If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes. Same. Algren wrote: I don't think. I predict.
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:01 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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We only track the first 24 hours. After that, it doesn't make a difference.
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:01 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22182
Location: Places
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ok.
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:01 am |
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mdana
Veteran
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2005 11:07 pm
Posts: 3004
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I would go more with the Yahoo numbers. Too many of the crowd reports are based on Notfabio's input and his grasp of some basic numbers call his input and knowledge into question on this subject. SR previews can't be X% percentage over BB and then Y% of X3, it creates an imaginary number that doesn't exist. It is either A or B not C-+. Also, many times when he states long movie A or short movie B on Friday his numbers/projections are just flat out wrong. Take out his posts out and using the rest it is a mixed bag. LA is not the rest of country and too many of these crowd reports rely on LA's numbers. My friend saw it tonight in DC and he said it did much better than Kong or BB and somewhat better than WOTW.
This movie did over $25m. 185 ratio $25.2m
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:12 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15497
Location: Everywhere
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Based just on the numbers I would think over 30m. I'll go with 26m.
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:57 am |
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Kenspy
Into the fray
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 12:09 pm
Posts: 1874
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Opening Day:
21.5 - 23.5 (217 - 199 Ratio)
22.5 Median
Extrapolation at Median (good legs based on excellent WOM):
Tuesday: 4.75
Wednesday: 17.75
Thursday: 13.0
Friday: 20.6
Saturday: 21.9
Sunday: 18.1
5-Day Range: 90.1 - 102.1
5-Day Median: 96.1
3-Day Weekend Range: 55.6 - 65.6
3-Day Weeekend Median: 60.6
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:39 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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DP07 wrote: Based just on the numbers I would think over 30m. I'll go with 26m. I'm with DP on this one.
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 7:32 am |
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misterglass
Iron Man
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:56 pm
Posts: 678
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Wow, 4444 would certainly point to a better opening day than MovieCityNews is saying... can't imagine this doing less than $20 million myself.
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misterglass/NYC
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:21 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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misterglass wrote: Wow, 4444 would certainly point to a better opening day than MovieCityNews is saying... can't imagine this doing less than $20 million myself. Who are those people anyway? It sounds like they pulled that number out of their ass.
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:26 am |
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misterglass
Iron Man
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:56 pm
Posts: 678
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Rolling Thunder wrote: misterglass wrote: Wow, 4444 would certainly point to a better opening day than MovieCityNews is saying... can't imagine this doing less than $20 million myself. Who are those people anyway? It sounds like they pulled that number out of their ass. David Poland has actually has many close contacts within WB, so there's a chance he could have gotten this number right from them... but I'm not sure how.
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misterglass/NYC
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:29 am |
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Kenspy
Into the fray
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 12:09 pm
Posts: 1874
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misterglass wrote: Rolling Thunder wrote: misterglass wrote: Wow, 4444 would certainly point to a better opening day than MovieCityNews is saying... can't imagine this doing less than $20 million myself. Who are those people anyway? It sounds like they pulled that number out of their ass. David Poland has actually has many close contacts within WB, so there's a chance he could have gotten this number right from them... but I'm not sure how. Those with access at WB would never release "whisper numbers" that low to anybody, regardless of connections.
I could see the numbers perhaps being results from EST and CST, because of the timing of their release. But that's about it.
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:47 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32582
Location: the last free city
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Superman Returns will SURPRISE U ALL!!
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Is it 2028 yet?
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 10:25 am |
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Squee
Squee
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:01 pm
Posts: 13270
Location: Yuppieville
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revolutions wrote: Superman Returns will SURPRISE U ALL!! A 10 million wednesday sure would shock me. _________________Setting most people on fire is wrong.Proud Founder of the "Community of Squee." 
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 11:39 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Pending BOM's numbers, the ratio was around 220 - higher than I thought.
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 12:49 pm |
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Squee
Squee
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:01 pm
Posts: 13270
Location: Yuppieville
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revolutions wrote: Superman Returns will SURPRISE U ALL!! IM NOT SURPRISED AT ALL! Why would you lie to me?! _________________Setting most people on fire is wrong.Proud Founder of the "Community of Squee."
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 12:52 pm |
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notfabio
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:30 pm
Posts: 437
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 Wow.... mdana wrote: I would go more with the Yahoo numbers. Too many of the crowd reports are based on Notfabio's input and his grasp of some basic numbers call his input and knowledge into question on this subject. SR previews can't be X% percentage over BB and then Y% of X3, it creates an imaginary number that doesn't exist. It is either A or B not C-+. Also, many times when he states long movie A or short movie B on Friday his numbers/projections are just flat out wrong. Take out his posts out and using the rest it is a mixed bag. LA is not the rest of country and too many of these crowd reports rely on LA's numbers. My friend saw it tonight in DC and he said it did much better than Kong or BB and somewhat better than WOTW.
This movie did over $25m. 185 ratio $25.2m I feel the love.
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 1:06 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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notfabio's report was pretty much dead-on. I knew Yahoo! would be a bit off this time considering that the crowd reports were not overwhelmingly excellent.
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 1:10 pm |
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Kenspy
Into the fray
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 12:09 pm
Posts: 1874
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Re: Wow.... notfabio wrote: mdana wrote: I would go more with the Yahoo numbers. Too many of the crowd reports are based on Notfabio's input and his grasp of some basic numbers call his input and knowledge into question on this subject. SR previews can't be X% percentage over BB and then Y% of X3, it creates an imaginary number that doesn't exist. It is either A or B not C-+. Also, many times when he states long movie A or short movie B on Friday his numbers/projections are just flat out wrong. Take out his posts out and using the rest it is a mixed bag. LA is not the rest of country and too many of these crowd reports rely on LA's numbers. My friend saw it tonight in DC and he said it did much better than Kong or BB and somewhat better than WOTW.
This movie did over $25m. 185 ratio $25.2m I feel the love. Those of us predicting seriously appreciate your input every week. Please don't hesitate to make predictions because a kid doesn't like the number you come up with 
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 1:17 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am
Posts: 11130
Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass
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Zingaling wrote: notfabio's report was pretty much dead-on. I knew Yahoo! would be a bit off this time considering that the crowd reports were not overwhelmingly excellent. You know, we didnt really take into account the huge buzz it had on yahoo movie buzz. _________________ "People always want to tear you down when you're on top, like Napoleon back in the Roman Empire" - Dirk Diggler
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 1:21 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22182
Location: Places
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are the actuals even in it? showbizdata.net reported false grosses for batman last year twice.opening day and second day.
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 1:26 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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BOM is reporting $21 million, too, excel.
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 1:28 pm |
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notfabio
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:30 pm
Posts: 437
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Re: Wow.... Kenspy wrote: notfabio wrote: mdana wrote: I would go more with the Yahoo numbers. Too many of the crowd reports are based on Notfabio's input and his grasp of some basic numbers call his input and knowledge into question on this subject. SR previews can't be X% percentage over BB and then Y% of X3, it creates an imaginary number that doesn't exist. It is either A or B not C-+. Also, many times when he states long movie A or short movie B on Friday his numbers/projections are just flat out wrong. Take out his posts out and using the rest it is a mixed bag. LA is not the rest of country and too many of these crowd reports rely on LA's numbers. My friend saw it tonight in DC and he said it did much better than Kong or BB and somewhat better than WOTW.
This movie did over $25m. 185 ratio $25.2m I feel the love. Those of us predicting seriously appreciate your input every week. Please don't hesitate to make predictions because a kid doesn't like the number you come up with Oh I have been way off a couple times (Rebound was disasterous) I mainly find myself way off the mark with the legs or lack of them.
It was still kind of a momentary shock. I should really provide my numbers direct to Xiayun to make the projections off them for me, since he's a whole lot more on target than I am.
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| Thu Jun 29, 2006 1:28 pm |
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