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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12197
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 July 7-9 Predictions
Yes, I know its early. But I love doing early predictions, and this could be the weekend where Spiderman's record is beaten, so why not start early?
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest 4,000
1 POTC 2 $116 m ($29,000 average)
2 Superman $28.32 m -52%
3 The Devil Wears Prada $12.73 m -33%
4 Click $11.97 m -37%
5 Cars $9.45 m -37%
Top 5 total: $178.47 m 
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Thu Jun 29, 2006 11:53 pm |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm Posts: 8642 Location: Toronto, Canada
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This can get intresting.
1. Pirates 2: 102 million
Friday: 37 million
Saturday:38 million +3%
Sunday:27 mllion -29%
2. Superman: 24 million
_________________The Dark Prince 
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Thu Jun 29, 2006 11:57 pm |
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trixster
loyalfromlondon
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:31 pm Posts: 19697 Location: ville-marie
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Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - $127 million
Superman will drop around 58-60% to about $25 million. The rest are too early to predict, given that we don't even know their grosses for this weekend.
_________________Magic Mike wrote: zwackerm wrote: If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes. Same. Algren wrote: I don't think. I predict. 
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:00 am |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm Posts: 8642 Location: Toronto, Canada
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Saturday..
A. Drop over 5%...
B. Drop hardly anything
C. Stable
D. Rise slightly
E. or jump a lot
_________________The Dark Prince 
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:02 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22214 Location: Places
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pirates-140 million boneeeesssssssssss
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:05 am |
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Mannyisthebest
Forum General
Joined: Wed May 10, 2006 3:53 pm Posts: 8642 Location: Toronto, Canada
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I am seeing strong legs or bigger weekdays for this. 3.0 multiplier and 10 million weekdays.
I think i will never perdict over 105 million for a movie.
I like 102 million, its very possibile and i wont be dissapointed.
It will rise as i start to feel the hype up more.
_________________The Dark Prince 
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:05 am |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48678 Location: Arlington, VA
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Pirates with the biggest opening weekend of all time? Yes, please.
Which just makes it even more depressing that I have to wait two weeks to see it. Urghhhh. Oh well, it'll probably still be making like $40M in its third weekend so its not like I'm the only one 
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:15 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40600
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Pirates 2 - 113 mil
Superman Returns - 18 mil
Devil Wears Prada will hold good.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:28 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: July 7-9 Predictions
BJs Predictions:
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - 154.95m ($38,500 PTA) 4050 theaters
2. Superman Returns - 20.0m -58%
3. The Devil Wears Prada - 12.15m -40%
4. Click - 10.40m -50%
5. Cars - 8.85m -45%
6. The Lake House - 2.85m -46%
7. Nacho Libre - 2.25m -60%
8. Garfield: A Tail of Two Kiltties - 2.05m -38%
9. The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift - 1.50m -62%
10. The Break-Up - 1.45m -55%
11. Waist Deep - 1.10m -65%
12. X-Men: The Last Stand: 1.05m -52%
Top 12 total: 218.50m
_________________The Force Awakens
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:38 am |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am Posts: 3073
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 Re: July 7-9 Predictions
BJ wrote: BJs Predictions: 9. The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift - 1.50m -62%
 4 straight weeks of 55% drops.
_________________
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:29 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
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POTC 2 - 164m
SR - Down 61%
Everything else - Who cares?
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:34 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
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I can just see it open with 225m.
Or, I can at least imagine it.
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:39 am |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am Posts: 3073
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Damn it! If that happens, I'm gonna cry so loud, you'd be able to hear it. That's a good thing.
_________________
Last edited by Eventine on Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:41 am |
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Kenspy
Into the fray
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 12:09 pm Posts: 1874
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DP07 wrote: POTC 2 - 164m
SR - Down 61%
Everything else - Who cares?
$164 million would be very close to every single screen sold out all shows, all day, for 3 days.
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:41 am |
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Eventine
Too Brilliant for Introductions
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:45 am Posts: 3073
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How many screens are you talking about here?
_________________
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:42 am |
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Kenspy
Into the fray
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 12:09 pm Posts: 1874
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Eventine wrote: How many screens are you talking about here?
9k?
Theater count hasn't been finalized, so screen count isn't out either.
Was just making the point that there is definitely an upper limit as to how high the gross can go.
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:47 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
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12k screens I'd say. With 4.5 showtimes a day and 250 seats per screen (probably higher actually) you can have 13m+ tickets per day or over 80m in sales. That's without midnight (which can add 10m more). Plus, there are interlocks if demand is high enough.
SM had only 7,000 screens and did nearly 50m adjusted in a day (sat) without midnights. The limit is well above 60m a day.
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:57 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22214 Location: Places
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spiderman 1 had midnights
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:59 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
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excel wrote: spiderman 1 had midnights
Not on Saturday.
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 4:08 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22214 Location: Places
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ah hah.
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 4:08 am |
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Kenspy
Into the fray
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 12:09 pm Posts: 1874
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DP07 wrote: 12k screens I'd say. With 4.5 showtimes a day and 250 seats per screen (probably higher actually) you can have 13m+ tickets per day or over 80m in sales. That's without midnight (which can add 10m more). Plus, there are interlocks if demand is high enough.
SM had only 7,000 screens and did nearly 50m adjusted in a day (sat) without midnights. The limit is well above 60m a day.
Yeah the upper limit is probably well above 200m, I was just using a little hyperbole to say that there IS a realistic ceiling, and that ceiling probably is around 140-150.
Personally, my initial gut prediction is 124m. Return of the Sith would've done around 130m if it had opened on a Friday. I don't think pre-sales have quite approached that level yet, nor will there be that mega turn out at midnghts.
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 4:10 am |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15573 Location: Everywhere
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My calculations have ROTS earning 141m if it opened on a Friday. Much wider audience here though.
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 4:13 am |
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Tyler
Powered By Hate
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:55 pm Posts: 7578 Location: Torrington, CT
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POTC 2 - $145 million
Superman - 58-65% drop
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:41 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm Posts: 21572
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1. POTC 2 115 million
2. SR 25.0 million (-60%)
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:44 pm |
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Webslinger
why so serious?
Joined: Tue Jun 06, 2006 11:24 pm Posts: 4110 Location: Stuck In A Moment I Can't Get Out Of
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Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest- $123.5 million
Superman Returns- 50% drop
_________________ This Post Has Brought to You by Your Friendly Neighborhood Webslinger.
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Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:51 pm |
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