I think if The Omen lands under 4.3 million, it won't pass it's Tuesday number, at which point I'll laugh and giggle in glee.

You mean Wednesday?

No, I mean it's weekend won't pass it's Tuesday number, which I called early in the week when the 12.6 numbers came out.

Oh. heh, really doubt that.

Cars 1136, +112, B+
The Omen 3630, 570 today, +51, C+
A Prairie Home Companion 0 (Not Active)

PEACE, Mike.

Final guess is $16m for Cars and $5m for The Omen.

162 in the last 3 hours. My guess for the 4 hour ratio was 16-20. The low end probably makes sense now since it's not backloaded, but that will only be for 12m or so depending on the final hour. I guess it could get as low as 13, but that seems slightly unlikely IMO.

OTH had 120 in the final 4 hours, but that skewed more towards kids who are not up now. With 180 reviews and an 11 4-hour ratio you get just over 16m which I think is the maximum. I'm actually thinking 13m-14m.

Cars: 15.5-17.0

So... let's say...

Friday- $15.2 mil
Saturday- $19.7 mil (20% increase?)
Sunday- $15.8 mil

Total- $50.7 mil?

Lower or Higher?

IM will be higher. I see 3.4-3.5.

It'll increase more than 30% on Saturday. Ice Age II increased 28.3% and it was frontloaded, obviously. I don't see the weekend multiplier being under 3.3.

I think it will be around 3.35. I think Sat increases in general for openers are showing a long term weakening trend, so the bar is lower IMO.

My guess: 14.5-17.5, I'd go with 15.6

Cars 1157, +21, B+
The Omen 3649, 589 today, +19, C+
A Prairie Home Companion 0 (Not Active)

I'll go with 80-85 for 14m.

Omen at 5m.

The more I think about it the lower I think the Sat increase will be. OTH increased 45% at a time when that type of movie likely would have increased 80%-90%. Nemo was under 40% when it likely would have been 70%+ as a holdover. So, the Sat grosses seem to be at about 80% or less relative to the Friday grosses when compared to holdovers (hope that makes sense). At this time in June many schools get out, and the Sat increases decline quite a bit. The Sat increase for a holdover could be 20%-50% based on past CG movies around this date. Even if you use 50%, that only indicates a Sat increase of 20%. With the more likely 40%, it's just 12%. Lilo and Stitch increased 4%, and while that was later in June, the Sat increases really are not that much lower at that point. Check Nemo, Madagascar, and the Shrek films; the Sat increases tend to level off right around June 10-15 (although Friday increases keep decreasing).

I'm going to guess a 10%-20% Sat increase.

DP07, I think you are very wrong. This movie will have a great internal multiplier.

My guess - $13.5-15 million

I'm going to say $15.5M on its way to about 56-57 this weekend, depending on the IM.

I say 17.5 million opening day (friday) with another 23 on saturday and another 17 million on sunday.

TOTAL opening weekend will be between 58-60 million.

I have to pay more attention to my gut next time. I was much lower than I would have liked to be, but I'm still learning!

1157 final review count + $19.3 million friday = 59.95 ratio for Cars.

Take that! I knew it would be low. Sorry, I have to gloat, because I don't get to often when it comes to this. Hehe.

PEACE, Mike.

Nice call, Mike. I was thinking that the ratio was overprojected, but the crowd reports were leaning towards a $15 million opening day.

I thought 60 ratio was pushing it. Looks like I almost called it.