I think Loyal was on to something with Dreamgirls.

Apparently the short snippet at Cannes went over really, really well.

That's only 1 of 5.

I'm pretty sure The Good Shepherd will get a nomination. The Departed isn't dead yet, but personally I didn't necessarily think it was such a sure thing.

Baring a disaster, Scorsese will be honored for The Departed.

...with a nomination, probably. Heh

Just judging from what I read not taking into account the quality, it doesnt seem like a movie the Academy would honor. Aviator was probably Marty's best shot ever to win an Oscar.

Yippeeeee!

Scorsece will win his Oscar, eventually. It just won't be for The Departed.

Dreamgirls looks awful

By the way, a guy on the IMDB board made a good point saying that Goodfellas had terrible screening reactions as well. It's only been a few reviews, so maybe The Departed isn't finished yet. I wouldn't count on it, but maybe.

He'll get a lifetime achievement award.

And that's it.

Honestly, he deserved it for Raging Bull or Goodfellas, but not since.

If we assume that The Departed review that popped up is a genuine reflection of the potential critical and public reception of the film, then he hasn't *really* deserved to win in a long time.

I loved Raging Bull but moreso because of Bobby D's performance, he was the movie, but losing to Ordinary People... yeah thats not cool. With Goodfellas there should've atleast been a split, I think Godfather Pt.3 being nominated hurt its chances.

What I find insane is that he didnt even get a director's nod for Taxi Driver, I mean the movie was nominated for best picture, but Marty didnt get a nomination for best director?

Personally, while I like Martin Scorsese as a human being and what he's brought to movie making, aside from The Last Temptation of Christ, I don't really enjoy any of his movies personally. So I'm a bad person to ask about his quality.

When mentioning Taxi Driver though, it's important to mention that he's also been nominated in years where his picture has no chance (Last Temptation).

I'm also not a Goodfellas fan (sorry... hate gangster stuff all around basically! ), although it is well directed. I do think as far as a "whole" package goes, that Dances With Wolves had momentum and was a much more culturally important film. I don't understand the Ordinary People loss though. That boggles me.

As far as sure-fire nominees, I would be shocked if Heart of the Game isn't nominated for Best Documentary. It doesn't have the scope of Hoop Dreams (which they failed to nominate) but the soul is there.

It premiered in Seattle in 2005... does that make it ineligible?

I mean... I haven't heard about it, and while I'm no god-of-all-things, if I haven't heard about something (which I haven't) then it might be flying way too far under the radar.

I would be shocked to see if Road to Guantonimo is not nominated. I'm not sure about Incov. Truth.

You have to take into consideration though that he wasn't a big name then.

Honestly, I don't know. My other two top docs of 2006 Unknown White Male and Be Here To Love Me may also be ineligible.

Here are the AMPAS rules from 2006:

Rule Twelve
Special Rules for The Documentary Awards

I. DEFINITION
An eligible documentary film is defined as a theatrically released non-fiction motion picture dealing creatively with cultural, artistic, historical, social, scientific, economic or other subjects. It may be photographed in actual occurrence, or may employ partial re-enactment, stock footage, stills, animation, stop-motion or other techniques, as long as the emphasis is on fact and not on fiction.

II. CATEGORIES
The Documentary Awards are divided into two categories:

1. Documentary Feature - films more than 40 minutes in running time, and

2. Documentary Short Subject - films 40 minutes or less (including all credits) in running time.

III. ELIGIBILITY
1. To be eligible for award consideration for the 2006 awards year, a documentary film must be theatrically exhibited within two years of the film’s completion date between September 1, 2005 and August 31, 2006 and must meet the requirements described in ¶ IV.

2. A film that is primarily a promotional film, an industrial or instructional film, or an essentially unfiltered record of a performance is not eligible.

3. Only individual documentary films will be considered eligible for the Documentary Awards. This excludes from consideration:

a) episodes extracted from a larger theme series,
b) segments taken from a single "composite" program,
c) alternate versions of ineligible films (short or feature-length), and
d) short subject documentaries created from materials substantially taken from or cut down from publicly exhibited (in commercial theaters, festivals, and/or television), completed feature-length documentaries.

4. Significant dialogue or narration must be in English, or the film must have English subtitles.

5. The Documentary Branch Executive Committee shall determine and resolve all questions of eligibility.

IV. THEATRICAL EXHIBITION REQUIREMENTS
Feature And Short Documentaries
1. The Seven-Day Qualifying Exhibition: Both feature and short subject documentaries must be publicly exhibited for paid admission in a commercial motion picture theater in either Los Angeles County or the Borough of Manhattan in New York for a run of at least seven consecutive days, between 10 am and midnight, by means of 16mm, 35mm or 70mm film or in a 24- or 48-frame progressive scan digital format (minimum native resolution 1280 by 1024 pixels, with pixel bit depth, color primaries, and image and sound file formats suitable for exhibition in commercial Digital Cinema sites).

2. Advertising And Exploitation: Both feature and short subject documentaries must be advertised or exploited during their seven-day Theatrical Qualifying and multi-city Theatrical Roll-Out exhibitions in a manner considered normal and customary to the industry.

3. Feature Documentaries:

a) Multi-City Theatrical Roll-Out: In addition to the seven-day Qualifying Exhibition, the film must complete a multi-city Theatrical Roll-Out to include at least eight additional commercial public exhibitions for paid admission in motion picture theaters. Multi-City Theatrical Roll-Out exhibitions are to be for a minimum of two consecutive days and in at least four states. All screenings of the film must begin between 10:00 AM and midnight, and employ one of the formats specified in IV 2. The multi-city Theatrical Roll-Out must be completed seven days prior to the day nominations are announced for the 2006 awards year. Exhibitions held at festivals, benefits, special events and the like do not qualify for this requirement.
b) For feature documentaries reaching the semi-final round, an official Academy form documenting the multi-city Theatrical Roll-Out must be received by the Awards Office seven days prior to the day nominations are announced for the 2006 Awards year.

4. Short Subject Documentaries

Short subject documentaries may qualify in one of two ways:

a) Multi-City Theatrical Roll-Out: In addition to the seven-day Qualifying Exhibition, the short film must complete a multi-city Theatrical Roll-Out in at least four additional cities, each engagement to be a minimum of two consecutive days. All screenings of the film must begin between 10:00 AM and midnight, and employ one of the formats specified in IV 2. The multi-city Theatrical Roll-Out must be completed seven days prior to the day nominations are announced for the 2006 awards year. Exhibitions held at festivals, benefits, special events and the like do not qualify for this requirement.
b) Seven-day Qualifying Exhibition Only: If a short documentary only completes the minimum seven-day Qualifying Exhibition it must be withheld from television or the internet for six months following the day nominations are announced.
Additional requirements for all short subject documentaries :
c) For short subject documentaries reaching the semi-final round, an official Academy form documenting the multi-city Theatrical Roll-Out, if completed, must be received by the Awards office seven days prior to the day nominations are announced for the 2006 Awards year. d) Short subject documentaries must be contractually available for theatrical release for six months after receiving nominations.

V. TELEVISION AND INTERNET TRANSMISSIONS
Feature Documentaries and Short Subject Documentaries

NO TYPE of television or internet transmission shall occur at any time prior to and for two months after the first day of the Qualifying Exhibition, or at any time before the film has completed its multi-city Theatrical Roll-Out.As indicated in ¶IV.4.b, i f a short documentary qualifies by the seven-day Qualifying Exhibition only, it must be withheld from television or the internet for six months following the day nominations are announced.

VI. SUBMISSIONS
1. A screening information form for the seven-day theatrical Qualifying Exhibition must be filed with the Awards office before the exhibition run begins. Upon completion of the run, a letter of validation from the exhibitor must be filed with the Awards office (no later than September 1, 2006 , 5:00 PM PDT ).

2. By 5:00 PM PDT of September 1, 2006 , entrants must have submitted to the Academy:

a) a completed entry form
b) an English-language synopsis of the motion picture
c) the theatrical exhibition plan
d) the film’s complete credits list (as it appears on screen)
e) filmographies of the director(s)/producer
f) 25VHS/NTSC videocassettes or 25 DVDs
g) if applicable, an Academy form that documents the completed multi-city Theatrical Roll-Out
h) letter of validation for the seven-day Qualifying Exhibition
i) disclosure form
j) if desired, a listing of upcoming theatrical exhibitions

Foreign Entries Must Also Comply with Rule VI. 2.

The videocassettes or DVDs submitted to the Academy must be the final product, without trailers or other extraneous content. These materials should be marked "Documentary Entry" and shipped PREPAID to the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, 8949 Wilshire Boulevard, Beverly Hills, CA 90211-1972.

3. SEMI-FINAL ROUND: Films that reach the semi-final round of voting must submit two film prints and 35 additional VHS/NTSC videocassettes or 35 DVDs. The prints submitted to the Academy must be composite film prints, identical in content and length to the version used for the qualifying exhibition. The deadlines for delivery to the Academy of these additional materials are: for Short Subjects, Monday, October 23,2006 ; for Features, Friday, December 1, 2006 .

VII. VOTING
1. All eligible documentaries will be viewed by Documentary Branch members who serve on a volunteer basis.

2. Feature Documentaries: Five nominations will be determined by a preferential voting system.

Short Subject Documentaries: Three to five nominations will be determined by an averaged point voting system.

3. Final voting shall be restricted to active and life Academy members who have viewed all of the nominated achievements in a theatrical setting. Viewing Documentary entries on videocassette or DVDs will NOT qualify a member for voting purposes in the final voting process, with the exception of Screening Committee members who have participated in the Preliminary and/or Semi-Final voting process.

4. Every award shall be conditioned upon the delivery to the Academy of one print of every film nominated for final balloting for all Academy Awards. Such print shall be in a format and of a quality equivalent to the film’s theatrical release. Such print shall become the property of the Academy, with the proviso, however, that the Academy shall not use such print for commercial gain. Such print shall be deposited with the Academy and, subject to matters not within its control, shall be screened by the Academy for the membership in advance of distribution of final ballots.

VIII. ADVERTISING / PUBLICITY RESTRICTIONS
Only documentaries that receive nominations or Awards may refer to their Academy endorsements in advertising and publicity materials. A film that is selected for inclusion in the Semi-Final round competition may not identify itself as an “Academy Award Finalist,” “Academy Award Short-list Film” or the like. Nominated or Award-winning documentary short subjects which are subsequently modified to run longer than 40 minutes may not be advertised as Academy Award-nominated or -winning pictures.

IX. OTHER
1. The award recipient(s) should be the individual(s) most involved in the key creative aspects of the filmmaking process. To this end, receipt of a statuette shall be limited to two persons, one of whom must be the credited director who exercised directorial control, and the other of whom must have a producer or director credit. If a producer is named, that person must have performed a major portion of the producer functions in the following five areas: acquisition and development; pre-production; production; post-production; marketing and distribution (see “Documentary Producer Definition,” obtainable from the Academy). In the case of a dispute, the Documentary Branch Executive Committee, shall determine and resolve all questions.

2. Production companies or persons with the screen credit of executive producer, co-producer, associate producer, produced in association with, or any credit other than that of director or producer, shall not be eligible to receive a statuette on behalf of the film.

3. Films submitted for Documentary Awards consideration may also qualify for Academy Awards in other categories if they meet the specified requirements. However, documentaries may not qualify for the Best Live Action Short Film category, nor will any film submitted for the Documentary Award be eligible for consideration in any category in subsequent awards years. An Animated Documentary Short Subject may be submitted in either the Documentary Short Subject category or the Animated Short Film category, but not both.

To clarify he wasn't an insider... he wasn't (and never will be) Robert Redford... that's why he lost.

Was he pretty well known within his industry? Yeah.

How can you even tell? Is there even a preview or anything out yet?

Heh, I don't know, but that extended teaser aired during the Tony awards got me excited.

The Heart of the Game is eligible. Premieres in film festivals don't count.

Unknown White Male and Be Here to Love Me should be, too.

I gave them all A+'s, it's like choosing which vintage movie poster to save during a fire.

I don't see a lot of press for any of the docus this year.

Except An Inconvenient Truth.

And Sicko.