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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Levy wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Okay, I did some more calculations and the very very minimum is, indeed, $110 million. But for that it'd need to have an opening day below $35 million and drop at least 10% on Saturday. I don't see both happening. I do. All current reports have it outselling better than Spidey 2 and Harry Potter 4 which both made $40+ million opening day. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Fri May 26, 2006 12:52 pm |
 
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm
Posts: 21572
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 misterglass wrote: Bret Ratner is the best wrote: I dont know how anyone can deny it will do under 100 million 4 days. The midnight sellouts prove that the sales have pretty much were in par with HP midnight showings and some theaters were reporting it was selling better than Spiderman 2's midnight. We arent saying it will do Spidey two numbers but the numbers prove that it would do better than X-2s Well, it's much easier to see and say that AFTER seeing how much the movie did in midnight screenings. My arguments for why it might not do $100 million are still viable because too many people involved in that debate were jumping to conclusions rather than basing their predictions on reality and facts. I still don't think it will do $100 million in three days, though. Even before that you were pretty much arguing that X3 will do less than X2 did in 3 days, I didnt see it happening since X2 shadowing I mentioned got overshadowed by other movies receiving more hype during that time period like Matrix Reloaded, The Hulk and T3. X-2 was pretty much the dark horse in that category while The Hulk and T3 failed to live up close to the hype. Now flashforward 3 years later, which movies right now are receiving the most anticipation. Its list looks mainly like POTC2,X3 and Davinci. Why would you think that een then X3 will make less than X2, you were always arguing that X3 would make less than 100 million for 4 days NOT 3 days
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| Fri May 26, 2006 12:53 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Dr. Lecter wrote: Levy wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Okay, I did some more calculations and the very very minimum is, indeed, $110 million. But for that it'd need to have an opening day below $35 million and drop at least 10% on Saturday. I don't see both happening. I do. All current reports have it outselling better than Spidey 2 and Harry Potter 4 which both made $40+ million opening day.  a 40m+ opening day would amaze even BJ. 
I like the sould of that the moe it makes the better  _________________The Force Awakens
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| Fri May 26, 2006 1:15 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm
Posts: 14737
Location: The Present (Duh)
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X-Men 3: The Last Stand 1744, +59, B+
Still cloggered up.
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| Fri May 26, 2006 1:37 pm |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm
Posts: 21857
Location: Walking around somewhere
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Yes, the circle is complete, it passed Mi3's entire day already. Im thinking a 42million Friday with midnight a 40 million saturday and a 30 million sunday, 110 million 3day, 125 million 4day, that is my safe prediction as of now.
_________________ Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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| Fri May 26, 2006 1:56 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am
Posts: 11130
Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass
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Now people are just overreacting because how well it did in it's first couple hours due to big turnouts in midnight showings.
_________________ "People always want to tear you down when you're on top, like Napoleon back in the Roman Empire" - Dirk Diggler
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| Fri May 26, 2006 2:06 pm |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm
Posts: 21857
Location: Walking around somewhere
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Not for me, thats been my prediction for a while. Xmen will narrowly miss Spiderman I think. Its got the power and the fanbase is definitely stronger than last time.
_________________Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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| Fri May 26, 2006 2:09 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Killuminati510 wrote: Now people are just overreacting because how well it did in it's first couple hours due to big turnouts in midnight showings. correction, people are finally starting to see the light _________________The Force Awakens
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| Fri May 26, 2006 2:10 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Doesn't seem like an overreaction to me. I have a conservative projection of about 7500 reviews for the day. Even with a ratio of 180, that's a $40M+ Friday. I know we were let down last week with DVC (from an estimate standpoint), but I think X-Men 3 will deliver this time around.
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| Fri May 26, 2006 2:11 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am
Posts: 11130
Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass
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Rolling Thunder wrote: Doesn't seem like an overreaction to me. I have a conservative projection of about 7500 reviews for the day. Even with a ratio of 180, that's a $40M+ Friday. I know we were let down last week with DVC (from an estimate standpoint), but I think X-Men 3 will deliver this time around. Conservative? Thinking it's gonna average 450 reviews each hour from now on isnt very conservative. It had it's huge numbers in the beginning because of gangbuster midnight business, but now it's gonna slow down and pick up again later at nught. _________________"People always want to tear you down when you're on top, like Napoleon back in the Roman Empire" - Dirk Diggler
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| Fri May 26, 2006 2:20 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am
Posts: 11130
Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass
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Oh so now you changed it from 8000 to 7500  _________________"People always want to tear you down when you're on top, like Napoleon back in the Roman Empire" - Dirk Diggler
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| Fri May 26, 2006 2:22 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Killuminati510 wrote: Rolling Thunder wrote: Doesn't seem like an overreaction to me. I have a conservative projection of about 7500 reviews for the day. Even with a ratio of 180, that's a $40M+ Friday. I know we were let down last week with DVC (from an estimate standpoint), but I think X-Men 3 will deliver this time around. Conservative? Thinking it's gonna average 450 reviews each hour from now on isnt very conservative. It had it's huge numbers in the beginning because of gangbuster midnight business, but now it's gonna slow down and pick up again later at nught. I'm expecting a percentage projection similar to what MI: 3 had, which was roughly 21-23% reviews as of 1 EST.
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| Fri May 26, 2006 2:24 pm |
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banjo6
Speed Racer
Joined: Fri Dec 17, 2004 5:23 pm
Posts: 143
Location: Virginia
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Killuminati510 wrote: Rolling Thunder wrote: Doesn't seem like an overreaction to me. I have a conservative projection of about 7500 reviews for the day. Even with a ratio of 180, that's a $40M+ Friday. I know we were let down last week with DVC (from an estimate standpoint), but I think X-Men 3 will deliver this time around. Conservative? Thinking it's gonna average 450 reviews each hour from now on isnt very conservative. It had it's huge numbers in the beginning because of gangbuster midnight business, but now it's gonna slow down and pick up again later at nught. It's the now typical overreaction from everyone after seeing the midnight shows and early yahoo numbers. I'm thinking however big these midnight showings were, it's just gonna fall that much more on Saturday. I know at my theater when we have these long weekends that business is more evenly spread out and people don't necessarily have to come out on Saturday to see a movie. So I'm thinking everyone is gonna be a lil surprised when this thing not only falls on Saturday, but falls pretty good. Which won't be that shocking, since it's gonna have a huge Friday number. It's still heading towards a great weekend, but I'm thinking a few people will be let down yet again when they really shouldn't be. 
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| Fri May 26, 2006 2:25 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am
Posts: 11130
Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass
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MI3 didnt have a high start like X3 thanks to the midnight showings.
_________________"People always want to tear you down when you're on top, like Napoleon back in the Roman Empire" - Dirk Diggler
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| Fri May 26, 2006 2:26 pm |
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banjo6
Speed Racer
Joined: Fri Dec 17, 2004 5:23 pm
Posts: 143
Location: Virginia
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Rolling Thunder wrote: Killuminati510 wrote: Rolling Thunder wrote: Doesn't seem like an overreaction to me. I have a conservative projection of about 7500 reviews for the day. Even with a ratio of 180, that's a $40M+ Friday. I know we were let down last week with DVC (from an estimate standpoint), but I think X-Men 3 will deliver this time around. Conservative? Thinking it's gonna average 450 reviews each hour from now on isnt very conservative. It had it's huge numbers in the beginning because of gangbuster midnight business, but now it's gonna slow down and pick up again later at nught. I'm expecting a percentage projection similar to what MI: 3 had, which was roughly 21-23% reviews as of 1 EST. But by all accounts X-Men did at least 5 times the business MI3 did on midnight shows, did you factor that in??
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| Fri May 26, 2006 2:27 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
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Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Just FYI - Yahoo now has a "Grade X-Men 3" thing on their new home page, at least for the time being.
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| Fri May 26, 2006 2:28 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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banjo6 wrote: Rolling Thunder wrote: Killuminati510 wrote: Rolling Thunder wrote: Doesn't seem like an overreaction to me. I have a conservative projection of about 7500 reviews for the day. Even with a ratio of 180, that's a $40M+ Friday. I know we were let down last week with DVC (from an estimate standpoint), but I think X-Men 3 will deliver this time around. Conservative? Thinking it's gonna average 450 reviews each hour from now on isnt very conservative. It had it's huge numbers in the beginning because of gangbuster midnight business, but now it's gonna slow down and pick up again later at nught. I'm expecting a percentage projection similar to what MI: 3 had, which was roughly 21-23% reviews as of 1 EST. But by all accounts X-Men did at least 5 times the business MI3 did on midnight shows, did you factor that in?? Yes. I'm assuming X-Men's fanbase is far greater than Mission Impossible's.
Last edited by Rolling Thunder on Fri May 26, 2006 2:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Fri May 26, 2006 2:29 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am
Posts: 11130
Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass
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Yeah X3 is on the front page of yahoo's new layout http://www.yahoo.com/?p=1148668153_________________"People always want to tear you down when you're on top, like Napoleon back in the Roman Empire" - Dirk Diggler
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| Fri May 26, 2006 2:29 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Depending how long they keep this there, we may have to re-evaluate the ratio tonight. We'll need to call in the experts on that one.
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| Fri May 26, 2006 2:31 pm |
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Bryan_smith
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Wed Nov 24, 2004 7:13 pm
Posts: 2120
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X-men -- 2601 +857
wow!
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| Fri May 26, 2006 2:35 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am
Posts: 11130
Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass
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_________________"People always want to tear you down when you're on top, like Napoleon back in the Roman Empire" - Dirk Diggler
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| Fri May 26, 2006 2:36 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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X-Men 3: The Last Stand 2601, +857, B+
Probably unclogged a little now.
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| Fri May 26, 2006 2:37 pm |
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Bryan_smith
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Wed Nov 24, 2004 7:13 pm
Posts: 2120
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Killuminati510 wrote: Rolling Thunder wrote: Doesn't seem like an overreaction to me. I have a conservative projection of about 7500 reviews for the day. Even with a ratio of 180, that's a $40M+ Friday. I know we were let down last week with DVC (from an estimate standpoint), but I think X-Men 3 will deliver this time around. Conservative? Thinking it's gonna average 450 reviews each hour from now on isnt very conservative. It had it's huge numbers in the beginning because of gangbuster midnight business, but now it's gonna slow down and pick up again later at nught. you were saying?
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| Fri May 26, 2006 2:38 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am
Posts: 11130
Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass
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A little? It's not clogged at all now. the ratio between written reviews and number of reviews makes sense now.
_________________"People always want to tear you down when you're on top, like Napoleon back in the Roman Empire" - Dirk Diggler
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| Fri May 26, 2006 2:38 pm |
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yearsago
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 11:20 pm
Posts: 491
Location: seattle
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Holy crap..day is still young
it deserves this icon!
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| Fri May 26, 2006 2:38 pm |
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