Why would people buy tickets so far in advance? I'm not questioning that post, Joy, I'm just saying in general. A month in advance? I don't know what my plans are for this weekend, let alone July 7.

i question yet cause disney hasnt authuorized presales yet.

After X3 and TDVC I'm going with more frontloading:

173m/515m

Friday: 69m (10m Midnight)
Sat: 58m
Sun: 46m
Mon: 23m
Tues: 20m
Wed: 17m
Thur: 16m
2nd Weekend: 75m

After 10 days: 324m

sub-200.

Or, you just lower your total prediction by a little bit and your opening to a more. . .sane number?

Your bomb sniffing abilities may be great, but you still need to work out your hit movie radar.

Shrek 2, Nemo, Meet the Fockers, Bourne Supremacy?

What would be sane anyway?

Anything under 140m is absurd. 100m is now easy for any megablockbuster, and a true record breaking movie should have no problem with 130m. This clearly is that IMO with the size, WOM and demoraphic appeal of the original.

Um, actually, Disney's been selling tickets to the movie at the El Capitan for, I think, almost two months (or more--can't recall exactly when they went up for sale). So I'm not surprised some theaters are already getting geared up for the movie.

So far there aren't any tickets available here in KC, but I'm planning on calling the Regal tomorrow to find out if they know when they'll start selling. I've gotta start getting a head-count for who all's going for the midnight showing. I'll be there the day the tickets go on sale, even though it's a thirty minute drive (I'd rather take a drive than pay the extra fees online).

So, yeah, *I* know what I'm doing the weekend of July 7--midnight showing the night of July 6, then probably a 7pm then a 10pm on Friday, then the first showing on Saturday and probably a 7pm Sat, and repeat that on Sunday as well. That's seven showings for me in a single weekend.... That'll really help me with my record (I've gotta beat 11 viewings in theater... piece o' cake!).

Joy

I'm not saying you're bad, I tihkn you just. . .overestimate a wee bit sometimes. This is such a case.

As for me, I've been going with $125M for most of the year, but am considering upping it a bit. I shall make another prediction sometime soon.

Heh, we will see.

Old Predict:

Opening- $152.6 mil

Total- $579.8 mil

New Predict:

Opening- $168.9 mil

Total- $554.7 mil

YEAH!!!

Are these $150M+ OW predictions realistic? I've never seen such lofty guesses before. There's no doubt POTC 2 will be the biggest film of the summer, but $150M+ just seems crazy to me. That would completely obliterate Spidey's record.

You shall see

Return of the Jedi did it. Batman, The Lost World, Harry Potter, and Spider-Man also obliterated records. I will happen again. Clearly the record at this point is as easy to beat as could be. Much as The Lost World's was in 2001 just before HP broke it and 6 months later it had increased over 50%. Or, in 1989 right before Batman beat it by over 35%. A jump by 50% would not be unusual in a historical context.

Ah. Well, that's very likely. I have a feeling the cliff-hanger ending will be off-putting to some fans, which will cause lower WOM and weaker legs.

I might as well make an early prediction:

Friday: $44 million
Saturday: $46 million (+5%)
Sunday: $37 million (-20%)
Opening Weekend: $127 million
Monday: $18.5 million (-50%)
Tuesday: $16.5 million (-10%)
Wednesday: $15 million (-10%)
Thursday: $14 million (-7%)
Opening Week: $191 million (just below Spider-Man 2 for first all-time)
Friday: $20 million (+45%)
Saturday: $24 million (+20%)
Sunday: $19 million (-20%)
Second Weekend: $63 million (-50%)
Total After Ten Days: $254 million (first all-time)

Domestic Total: $390 million
International Total: $470 million
Worldwide Total: $860 million

probably will be my final prediction.........unless it opens in 4200 theaters.

POTC: Dead Man's Chest

Fri- 40m
Sat- 35m (-15%)
Sun-26m (-25%)
3 day- 101m (i'm feeling generous)
Domestic- 300m
International- 450m
2.97 multiplier.

damn good for a sequel.

guys if x-men can open as big as it did, Pirates will open bigger.

130m opening

420m total

Everyone picking this movie to open with $110+ mill and total of $400 + mill are freaking
lol this ain't Shrek2 or SP2. It'll do great boxoffice for a sequel but not that insanely great.

$110M should be easy for this. You have a fanbase for an incredibly successful debut film and a very accessible story for those who haven't seen the first POTC. I can see a $125 OW as a distinct possibility. As to $400M domestic, I'm not so sure.

not shrek, not Spiderman. It's PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN

Friday: $52
Saturday: $49
Sunday: $44
3-day: $145
Domestic: $508
Worldwide: $1270

that's how it'll pretty much perform at the boxoffice.

Aw, screw it:

Opening: 141.3
Total: 472.5 (3.34)

I know this'll only build up to dissapointment, but it sounds somewhat semi-reasonable.