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Erendis
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Thu Oct 28, 2004 9:40 am
Posts: 1527
Location: Emyn Arnen
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Not only will Pirates destroy Superman's second week, but the very anticipation of Pirates will affect Superman's first weekend too. It takes time, money, and energy to see a movie, and I can easily see people putting off moviegoing for a week (missing SR), knowing that they will be going to see Pirates the week after.
_________________
I'm not around much anymore because I don't have time (or permission, probably) to surf the 'net from my new job.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 9:24 am |
 
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Really bad timing with Pirates on its heels. Count me in also.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 9:40 am |
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baumer72
Mod Team Leader
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 11:00 pm
Posts: 7087
Location: Crystal Lake
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I think it will do well, but not 200 mill anymore. I just don't see the buzz for this.
135 mill
_________________
Brick Tamland: Yeah, there were horses, and a man on fire, and I killed a guy with a trident.
Ron Burgundy: Brick, I've been meaning to talk to you about that. You should find yourself a safehouse or a relative close by. Lay low for a while, because you're probably wanted for murder.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 10:21 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32629
Location: the last free city
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baumer72 wrote: I think it will do well, but not 200 mill anymore. I just don't see the buzz for this.
135 mill   good one baumer. you're the biggest kidder here. you just took the crown from BKB. 
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Is it 2028 yet?
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| Tue May 30, 2006 10:31 am |
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baumer72
Mod Team Leader
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 11:00 pm
Posts: 7087
Location: Crystal Lake
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Look at it this way, if Superman opens to 45 mill, would you think it was a bad prediction then? I could easily see the film opening to:
Friday:15 mill
Saturday 17.25 (15% increase)
Sunday 15.1 (22%decrease)
This is a 47.4 mill weekend, very possible. If you give it very good legs, let's say 3.5 multiplier, then you have 165 mill. Now if you give it just average to good legs of about 3, then you have 140-145 mill.
That is how I see it. Where you are getting this massive blitzkrieg of demand for the film is nothing but a pipedream. I just don't see it or feel it.
Final prediction:
47 mill opening.
141 mill total.
_________________
Brick Tamland: Yeah, there were horses, and a man on fire, and I killed a guy with a trident.
Ron Burgundy: Brick, I've been meaning to talk to you about that. You should find yourself a safehouse or a relative close by. Lay low for a while, because you're probably wanted for murder.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 11:39 am |
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neo_wolf
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:19 pm
Posts: 11033
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baumer72 wrote: Look at it this way, if Superman opens to 45 mill, would you think it was a bad prediction then? I could easily see the film opening to:
Friday:15 mill
Saturday 17.25 (15% increase)
Sunday 15.1 (22%decrease)
This is a 47.4 mill weekend, very possible. If you give it very good legs, let's say 3.5 multiplier, then you have 165 mill. Now if you give it just average to good legs of about 3, then you have 140-145 mill.
That is how I see it. Where you are getting this massive blitzkrieg of demand for the film is nothing but a pipedream. I just don't see it or feel it.
Final prediction:
47 mill opening.
141 mill total. lol!
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| Tue May 30, 2006 12:24 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32629
Location: the last free city
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neo_wolf wrote: baumer72 wrote: Look at it this way, if Superman opens to 45 mill, would you think it was a bad prediction then? I could easily see the film opening to:
Friday:15 mill
Saturday 17.25 (15% increase)
Sunday 15.1 (22%decrease)
This is a 47.4 mill weekend, very possible. If you give it very good legs, let's say 3.5 multiplier, then you have 165 mill. Now if you give it just average to good legs of about 3, then you have 140-145 mill.
That is how I see it. Where you are getting this massive blitzkrieg of demand for the film is nothing but a pipedream. I just don't see it or feel it.
Final prediction:
47 mill opening.
141 mill total. lol! whatta a comedian. 
_________________
Is it 2028 yet?
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| Tue May 30, 2006 12:48 pm |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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It has a better shot at $141 million than the $400m+ you lot have it pegged at.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 12:52 pm |
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baumer72
Mod Team Leader
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 11:00 pm
Posts: 7087
Location: Crystal Lake
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Actually, I'll revise it to 47/163.
It's legs should be decent.
47
163
And no, I'm not kidding.
_________________
Brick Tamland: Yeah, there were horses, and a man on fire, and I killed a guy with a trident.
Ron Burgundy: Brick, I've been meaning to talk to you about that. You should find yourself a safehouse or a relative close by. Lay low for a while, because you're probably wanted for murder.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 2:02 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40593
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Alright, so here are the members joined so far:
Members:
1. Shack
2. Archie Gates
3. matatonio
4. Snrub
5. Dr. Lecter
6. Outatime
7. Dr. Malcom
8. Libs
9. SFERIC
10. trixster
11. Box
12. Moviedude
13. Squee
14. Erendis
15. Positive Jon
16. baumer72
17. MadGez
18. Rolling Thunder
I am contemplating lowering the bar even, maybe to under 185 million or so. I'll wait a couple days at least though.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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| Tue May 30, 2006 2:28 pm |
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Jeff
Christian's #1 Fan
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 8:25 pm
Posts: 28110
Location: Awaiting my fate
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I'm in.
_________________
See above.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 2:51 pm |
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trixster
loyalfromlondon
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:31 pm
Posts: 19697
Location: ville-marie
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Shack wrote: I am contemplating lowering the bar even, maybe to under 185 million or so. I'll wait a couple days at least though. Nah, don't do that. Under $200 million is enough to drive the fanatics insane.  _________________Magic Mike wrote: zwackerm wrote: If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes. Same. Algren wrote: I don't think. I predict. 
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| Tue May 30, 2006 3:11 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm
Posts: 21572
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trixster wrote: Shack wrote: I am contemplating lowering the bar even, maybe to under 185 million or so. I'll wait a couple days at least though. Nah, don't do that. Under $200 million is enough to drive the fanatics insane. Under 300 is already driving them insane. Going lower than 185 million would make them commit suicide
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| Tue May 30, 2006 3:12 pm |
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trixster
loyalfromlondon
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:31 pm
Posts: 19697
Location: ville-marie
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Bret Ratner is the best wrote: trixster wrote: Shack wrote: I am contemplating lowering the bar even, maybe to under 185 million or so. I'll wait a couple days at least though. Nah, don't do that. Under $200 million is enough to drive the fanatics insane. Under 300 is already driving them insane. Going lower than 185 million would make them commit suicide So we should do it, then? _________________Magic Mike wrote: zwackerm wrote: If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes. Same. Algren wrote: I don't think. I predict.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 3:14 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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If the fanatics commit suicide, we won't be able to brag. Don't do it.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 3:17 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm
Posts: 21572
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Magnus101 wrote: If you're talking about guys like me, then you people have no idea what a fanatic is. Just look at The Mazzz, VGPOP, or Superman128 at BOM. Those people would LITERALLY kill themselves.
Me, I wouldn't care too much as long as they sequel is coming. I argue for SR more because I see it being big, not because I want it to be big. Now, last year was different with BB and ROTS, which I wanted to be big thus my predictions were high(though in the end not to far off).
If SR does perform like you guys say it will, I will simply say "i was wrong, you were right" and move on. Not a big deal really. No we arent making fun of you really, we were making fun of the 300 and 400 million predictions and especially the ones that say its a "lock" not to do under 250 and yes we saw how fanatical the BOM ones are.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 3:22 pm |
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hp17
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Sat May 27, 2006 4:54 pm
Posts: 54
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this thread is to drive fanatics insane? 
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| Tue May 30, 2006 3:35 pm |
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roo
invading your spaces
Joined: Fri May 19, 2006 10:44 pm
Posts: 6194
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I have it pegged at $180 million to $220 million so it's right in the middle. Very frontloaded, perhaps even more than DaVinci Code, Pirates 2 will probably do pretty significant damage to it, and being that X3 pulled off last weekend with incredibly mediocre reviews, I don't necessarily see anything that will hurt Pirates' first weekend.
I don't see Supes having Batman Begins type legs, but a bigger opening.
To me, it really just matters how much Supes falls to Pirates. That week is really difficult, July 4th being on a Tuesday doesn't really create a holiday type situation for the June 30th weekend.
I do think a high pedigree Batman film and the third part of the pretty acclaimed and well known X-Men series has more going for it in terms of marketability than another Superman film headed by a largely unknown actor. I think if the actor playing Superman was well known to some degree, this film would do $30 million more at least.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 4:03 pm |
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Captain Muha
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Mon Jul 18, 2005 3:42 am
Posts: 995
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90 opening wkend
285 total
count on it.
_________________
"Let us have faith that right makes might; and in that faith let us, to the end, dare to do our duty as we understand it." - Abraham Lincoln
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| Wed May 31, 2006 9:09 am |
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1981
The Producer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 10:06 am
Posts: 484
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I'm in. I don't feel a certain kind of hype or interest.
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| Wed May 31, 2006 12:12 pm |
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neo_wolf
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:19 pm
Posts: 11033
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Look at my sig.
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| Wed May 31, 2006 2:46 pm |
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FILMO
The Original
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 10:19 am
Posts: 9808
Location: Suisse
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baumer72 wrote: Actually, I'll revise it to 47/163.
It's legs should be decent.
47
163
And no, I'm not kidding. you are cool. you are always giving me funny sigs. _________________Libs wrote: FILMO, I'd rather have you eat chocolate syrup off my naked body than be a moderator here.
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| Wed May 31, 2006 4:49 pm |
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BennyBlanco
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2004 3:51 pm
Posts: 1102
Location: The Bronx
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Count me in.
Superman will do Hulk numbers for the opening weekend and sail to about $181 million total.
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| Wed May 31, 2006 5:43 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40593
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And the numbers keep growing...
Members:
1. Shack
2. Archie Gates
3. matatonio
4. Snrub
5. Dr. Lecter
6. Outatime
7. Dr. Malcom
8. Libs
9. SFERIC
10. trixster
11. Box
12. Moviedude
13. Squee
14. Erendis
15. Positive Jon
16. baumer72
17. MadGez
18. Rolling Thunder
19. RogueONE
20. Daniel Raedts
21. BennyBlanco
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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| Wed May 31, 2006 6:15 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22213
Location: Places
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21?
Lmao
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| Wed May 31, 2006 6:34 pm |
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