Well, don't dramatically change it. I'm iffy on the Victoria Day holiday. It does make an effect, but I'm not sure how much necessarily. In 2004 it seemed to have it's greatest effect, when Shrek 2 was underestimated by $4 million for the weekend (studio estimate was $104 million and then actuals shocked people with $108 million weekend), and overall, you could see all films have nice sunday holds. But 2005's effect didn't seem as great, but it could have been that studios were smarter and remembered the Canadian holiday. All I know is that Monday drops each year have been a bit better than average on each Victoria Day.

PEACE, Mike.

57% Rotten Tomatoes user ratings. I thought it would be a bit higher. I know critics will rip it to pieces, but audiences need to be at least somewhat entertained...

My current prediction (certain to change before enterting the Derby):

Opening weekend - $92.1 million

Total gross - $244 million

The best release dates of the year are always the ones right before a long weekend:

Best weekends of the year:

1) Weekend before Memorial Weekend
2) Weekend before Thanksgiving
3) 2 weekends before Christmas (allows a bigger opening than the weekend before Christmas does)
4) Indep. Day (or week before it)

etc.

FINAL PREDICTIONS

Opening: 87.5
Total: 246.1 (2.81)

I just realized something. So many people have complained about the boringness of the film, but did anyone watch Cast Away. I'm a huge Hanks fan, but I think that is one of the most boring films I have ever seen. But it still managed to do $230 m ($300 m adjusted). Granted, it was Dec, but its still a huge chunk of change...

That was a movie most people would expect to be boring. I mean, its just Tom Hanks on an island for over 90 minutes. The Da Vinci Code, on the other hand, is a thriller, and should be expected to be thrilling and intriguing. Instead, its not. That is not good in a thriller.

That's cause people don't know any better..

But the movie is aimed to be a thriller, but the book itself is quite boring. Its an interesting book, but there is such a need to explain alot of theory, which is over the average person's head. The book wasn't all that interesting either for the first half, and even the most accomplished director would have had trouble faithfully following the novel, and making a very exciting film, because there's so much explanation required. Also, critics complained that nothing really exciting happens until Ian Mck.'s character comes in, but its the EXACT same situation in the book. The book goes VERY slowly imo until that point. This is a fault of the book itself.

oh man ... come on baumer .... you can do better than this?

last time i checked, Shrek, Incredibles, Finding Nemo and other such animated flicks were not just watched by people under the age of 13. Parents watched it, people in schools watched it, university students watched them and so did the 22 to 30 demographic. A good portion of people who are interested in Da Vinci are also interested in watching an animated flick.

and if that ain't true, you're hereby banned from ever watching a pixar film or any other animation again.

da vinci doesnt have the appeal to break 90 million...geez.you think teens/kids will flock to this like they did potter? HELL NO.

Yeah, that's true, but arguing that an animated flick like Over the Hedge (which isn't a Pixar film) is great competition for a film like The Da Vinci Code is really stretching it. The film CAN be competition in ways, but any film can be competition in certain ways. In any case, another film opening IS, by defination, "competition". That is implied. But the genre is still the farthest away from competition to an adult drama/thriller, and having another drama/thriller or adult oriented blockbuster during the weekend would be real notable, directed competition to that audience. In a weekend like this, there is enough room for both films to take up space, and so the argument is really silly. It's a stretch that's been thrown out to satisfy those who seem to want the Da Vinci Code to do "poorly", or want an argument to confirm their own opinion.

PEACE, Mike.

This film does not need the child audience for it to break $90 million weekend. Infact, nobody is expecting kids to go see this film. I don't know exactly what you're trying to get at.

And plenty of teenagers will be seeing the film. I'm one of them, technically speaking.

PEACE, Mike.

I'm liking a 82 million dollar weekend. Around a 20,000 PTA. Reviews obviously won't kill it, but I see 90 million potential here if not for the bashing.

Sorry for the late reply, but that is incorrect. I believe you are quoting an early week number...tracking has been going down steadily.

The predictions in this thread are really quite funny. Reminds me of the Poseidon crowd over at BOM.

MTC had their tracking at an $81 million weekend, and I have seen no updates posted indicating that MTC has gone lower throughout the week. Care to provide the new update for MTC then? Thanks.

Also, we are not BOM. Most people here were in tune with the tracking for Poseidon and correctly predicted low $20 million range. WOKJ posters continually dominate the derby charts at BOM.

PEACE, Mike.

FINAL PREDICTIONS:

Opening: $76.3 million
Total: $215.4 million

There is no tracking update during the week. The Vareity and THR articles mentioned something like "expect $50-80m", but they're not trackings, and their statements tend to be quite funny (e.g. "Less than $10 million is likely for See No Evil"). It'll be fun if they give themselves a $30m window and still miss the actual number.

I'm thinking a $30M+ Friday seems incredibly likely now. Roll out the red carpet - summer's here!

125 is quite incredible. I never expected better then 50 being an adult thriller. It could be at 300+ Fri or Sat (today's ranking is Wednesday, I think, since they take a couple days to tabulate). Only Youtube and American Idol are ahead.

Final prediction:

Opening Day - 33m
Opening Weekend - 98m
Total - 325m

People were overestimating the legs before, and now I think they are going too low. Bipolar reactions.

Baba was perhaps the only person that didn't twist my post into something that it wasn't. I was making a direct comparison to SW Ep. 3, which opened to $108 m, and many people completely ignored what type of point I was trying to make into some very odd things. I was making the point of why I didn't think that TDC would reach those levels, as any overlap that might have existed between Da Vinci Code and younger demos would have been completely evaporated by a $55 m + opening from Over The Hedge, which was the event film for many preteens, teens.

Also, people are pretty close minded about all this. Da Vinci Code is WAY past only adult thriller at this point. It is probably one of the top 3 most pop culture touching films this decade, along with TPOTC, and a few others. When a film becomes a pop culture giant like this, the lines are much more skewed than alot of you think they are. Once it reaches this level of pop culture status, I was merely trying to make the point about why it wouldn't reach SW level, but some people just jumped on the wrong ship, and argued something I wasn't even trying to argue...

I feel like this might have bad WOM, but i thought that about FLIGHTPLAN.

I think its a bit rude to make such types of presumptions on another person's intentions. I have been a strong supporter of The Da Vinci Code's box office prospects, even before alot of people jumped on the bandwagon saying countlessly even last year that it was the only film that I saw having a chance at taking the 2006 crown from POTC 2. I don't think its right to speculate, but not quite know the reasons for why people might make posts that you don't agree with. That's why this is a forum, and we respect people even if we have differing opinions than them, rather than mocking them by suggesting reasons for why they make what you might perceive as desperate excuses. I appreciate constructive argumentation, but I didn't quite appreciate your comment.

Anyways, I'm not one to take anything too seriously, but I just felt the need to bring this up as I saw no need to go into why I may have made such a post.

Cheers to strong box office.

Final prediction:

Opening - $100 mil

Total - $325 mil

Honestly, I went with 89.6 for the derby, but my real no guts no glory predict is that it'll get 100.