Mark my words... come sunday evening you will all kneel before Snrub's mighty predicting powers.

Jesus, that Cannes report sucks....Ah well i think it will still be massive.

While looking through all these Cannes reports....i seen a massive building banner for Dreamgirls! Nice, can't wait for this.

The overraction to the reviews reminds me of Man on Fire and National Treasure.

By overreaction I mean that there was a reaction. There shouldn't be, at the BO reviews alone are meaningless.

Interesting that See No Evil is on the Yahoo! Buzz Chart with a decent score of 7. Nothing to be excited about, but An American Haunting also showed up around this time two weeks ago and that did a little better than expected.

Here is the problem with the Da Vinci Code and it's bad reviews;

Before the reviews started trickling in, I thought that it had a good shot at 100 million. Now it has a very slim one.

Okay, so the ppl who read the book will be out in full force this weekend. But that alone will not bring it to 100 million. If it ever had hopes of opening to 100 million, it had to draw as many non-readers as it did readers.

Now, the book has sold over 60 million copies WW. Let's say for the sake of arguement that 25-30 million of those were sold in North America. Of that 25-30 million, only about half will come out for it on opening weekend. That's somewhere between 10-15 million people. That makes for a huge opening (like 70 million), but it needed an equal amount of non-readers to come out opening weekend. The non-readers are more likely to stay away from it if it receives bad reviews, especially since there is another big film opening this weekend with good reviews. So I think it's shot at 100 million went out the window when the bad reviews started coming in.

On the other hand, I think Over the Hedge's stock has risen quite a bit over the past few weeks, and it has a chance at really surprising this weekend (to like, Ice Age 2 numbers)

Right now I have Da Vinci at 70, and Over the Hedge at 40, but I would be thrilled to see both add 10-15 million to their totals.. it would make for a much more interesting Memorial day weekend!

do you really think half of the adults who read the book are gonna be so hard core they will go out opening weekend, fight the crowds, possibly have to sit in the front few rows?????????

What you are forgetting is that number only account for the people who actually bought the book, not read it. For example, my dad bought and read the book, then passed it on to my mom who read it and then passed it on to me, who read it and passed it on to my boyfriend. Now, obviously not everyone is going to share books, but there are a lot of people who do, so the number of people that have read the book might just be twice as much as the figure sold. In reality then, that 10-15 million people is only about a quarter of the people who have read the book, and yes, I do believe lots of people will rush out to see their fav. book adapted into the movies. Every Harry Potter openiong weekend is proof of that, regardless of whether or not they are adults...

Long lineups didn't keep the adults of America away from the Passion of the Christ on opening weekend...

You forgot to mention libraries, a way many people probably read the novel.

How much do you think it will do?

BTW, are you writing the May 19-21 Weekend Prediction article?

Around $3-4 million this weekend, probably.

And no, that's xiayun, I think.

WWE has been very high on the yahoo search and buzz chart. I think it probably has alot to do with wrestling fans searching for it and jacking up the score

after reading all the articles posted today, I am starting to think that Sony shot themselves in the foot bringing the pic to Cannes. You simply can't bring a bad movie to the festival.. The bad press won't be good for the film..

If enough of them see the movie it'll do decently. The film I see as a good comparison is Rob Zombie's 'The Devil's Rejects' because both have their fans from a different medium/outlet who will see the movie and make it perform decently, if only for a weekend.

Thanks.

Apparently the Audience still loves Da Vinci...

"Despite tepid and even terrible reviews coming in from film critics, the first report I've received from the Cannes Film Festival today tells me Sony/Imagine's The Da Vinci Code received a standing ovation at the end of its official world premiere. (Clearly there's no accounting for taste within that VIP audience.) There was one point during the screening, I've learned, when audiences did snicker: When Hanks (aka Robert Langdon) tells Audrey Tautou (aka Sophie Neveu) who her true ancestors were. But no one walked out in the middle, which the Cannes crowd is wont to do if they hate a movie. The black-tie premiere brought out the stars of the film -- Hanks, Tautou, Ian McKellen and Paul Bettany onto Cannes' famous red carpet. It was on that carpet that, hours before the premiere, nuns and priests supplicated themselves on the steps of the Palais to protest the film. At the premiere inside the theater, I'm told, Hanks made a point of meeting and greeting (and talking) to two priests in the audience. With the pair located at opposite ends of the theatre, Hanks had all eyes on him as he had to wend his way around the theatre to get to them. More as it comes in..."

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/f ... -premiere/

i think its a fun film to the regular people, but critics were expecting a classic.

Without seeing the film, I'm not sure how we could make such a statement at the moment. I certainly hope so, since it's my most anticipated film of the year, but many reviews touched on its "dullness".

Yep, I agree with Magnus' statement, and then agree with xiayun's worry. I'll sum up what I mean.

The material from the book was NEVER Oscar material. The book itself is an entertaining thrill ride, hardly contains anything the Oscar crowd goes for, and what I wanted in the film was a translation that made a tense, thrilling film. Hence my scepticism regarding Ron Howard. Anyways, I just want an awesome film here, we'll see whether I get it. So I agree with Magnus in that sense. When people were calling The Da Vinci Code as an "Oscar hopeful" months ago, I thought it was kinda silly, and then I read the book, and thought it was totally silly. It's just not Oscar material, at all.

I do think that perhaps the critics are going at it at the wrong way (and I would have never expected Cannes to have been nice to the film; this is Cannes, people), but I agree with xiayun that the critics are actually calling the film boring, dull and not thrilling. Which is a HUGE problem if it's true. That's what I need for me to enjoy this film. The book was so great, and the book was so enthralling (causing me to stay up in late hours still glued to the book), and for me, the film should do the same thing. If it isn't, something's wrong.

In any event, I do consider this a weird case. I still don't know exactly what to expect, because critics don't always allign with me, and the one positive review up so far is extremely positive and seems to call it what it is: a thrill ride. So, the bad is far outweighing the positive review so far, but I'm trying to remain hopeful. Ebert's 3/4 stars gives me some more encouragement. I'm simply hoping for the best.

Oh, and the opening will still be HUGE. Anybody adjusting their opening weekend predictions because of this are being premature. Reviews for this won't really sink in until after the first weekend, like usual, especially since there are already so many pre-sold tickets, and reviews have been late.

PEACE, Mike.

I don't think we've had so much prediction flip flopping in a LONG time!

1) MI3 disappoints, everyone jumps off Poseidon, and onto The Da Vinci Code

2) Bad response from Cannes (which was EXPECTED). People start jumping off what they quickly jumped onto in the first place.

Follow your guts people. RV -10% drop, MI3 and Poseidon disappointing. The market is so barren that I wouldn't be surprised to see a Ben Kingsley movie do well this weekend if it were the sole opening.


I'm just kidding of course! (About a Ben Kingsley movie doing well ).

BOG:

The Da Vinci Code - 60
Over the Hedge - 38
See No Evil - 3

Mission: Impossible III - 13.5 (-45%)
Poseidon - 11 (-50%)

TDVC is dropping at HSX too. I'm sensing some unnecessary uncertainty heading into the weekend. The numbers don't lie, and look like the majority of KJers will be laughing Saturday morning. I'm not wavering on my $80+ prediction.

I think critics and moviegoers have entirely different definitions for words like entertainment and "dull."

I think he can make that statement based simply on the book. It is quite easily adaptable into an entertaining thrill-ride.

That's what critics and most of us figure too, but I still think whether Howard succeeded or not is largely in question now. Critics didn't pan National Treasure by claiming it's dull; they looked for other factors that didn't matter much to the viewers. But here reading all the reviews, I clearly see a reason to worry.

National Treasure RT excerpts:

"This long, and long-winded, series of middling cliffhangers won't pump the adrenaline of action aficionados." - Variety

"Though a safer B.O. bet than Bruckheimer's serious-minded "King Arthur," "National Treasure" likely will mine the most fool's gold during its opening frame, before word-of-mouth buries it." - Also Variety

"Not all action movies are created equal."

"Sluggish for a Jerry Bruckheimer production."

"Never thought I'd say this about any Jerry Bruckheimer production, but this one probably could have used a couple more car chases to jolt things along."

"For the audience, it should be torture." - Rolling Stone

"The bigger problem is the way "National Treasure" trundles along so laboriously."

That's just from the cream of the crop reviews on the first page (of which I was able to check 6).


I've been burned so many times listening whatsoever to critics whether for my own sake, or as a tool for the BO, that I just don't trust them. It may or may not have great WOM, but I'll wait for the yahoo grade.

BOR - $77m TDVC, $45m OTH, $6m See No Evil.

In general, most people are underpredicting Over the Hedge.

You can't waiver on your OW prediction. The audience wants this movie and they have it. I think 80 is a lock for the OW and it's prospects are sstill putting it over 250. People want to see it and I treally don't think critic are going to affect it much. It is has positive wom from the audience, then it will do very well.

80 mill OW is my prediction as well.