Wow, I went from among the higheest to lowest predictions overnight.

$78M still strikes as the magic number though.

1. The Da Vinci Code - $82.4 million
2. Over the Hedge - $47.3 million
3. Mission: Impossible 3 - $12.8 million
4. Poseidon - $10.6 million
5. R.V. - $6.4 million
6. See No Evil - $4.2 million
7. Just My Luck - $3.6 million
8. United 93 - $2.9 million
9. Stick It - $1.8 million
10. An American Haunting - $1.3 million

Hmm....hope Over The Hedge opens nearer to $50M.
See No Evil has been dumped...but $3,000,000 against those 2 massive movies wouldn't be too bad.
Davinci will be massive.



Weekend Warrior

Davinci Code- $75.1 (3,880 theatres, $19,356 pta)
Over The Hedge- $44.2 (3,950 theatres, $11,190 pta)
Mission Impossible 3- $11.8
Poseidon- $9.7
RV- $5.5
See No Evil- $4.6 (1,100 theatres, $4,182 pta)
Just My Luck- $3.0
An American Haunting- $1.9
United 93- $1.8
Stick It- $1.7

http://www.comingsoon.net/weekendwarrior/2006/may19.php

120+ for the new films.
DVC - near 80m, a little over/under.
OTH - near 40m, maybe alittle over, but after RV's number, a 50m won't be a surprise to me.
SNE - max. 5m opening

If you want exact prediction:

DVC 78
OTH 42
SNE 3

I'm surprised Over the Hedge isn't higher considering the way it's been on the tracking indicators. I still expect closer to or over $50 million this weekend.

Wow at The Da Vinci Code.

78 million

I expect this weekend could be the first time in history that we have two films open to $50 m +, as we haven't done it yet, but last year Mad/Yard came close. Both are tracking very well, and a $55 m opening from Over The Hedge would not surprise me. I think both films are going to outdo expectations.

So someone's with me.

Tracking can be off by quite a bit as was the case with MI3 and Ice Age 2. My predictions for both 6 months early were better then the tracking in the final week. I wonder if they underestimated IA2 because they didn't count on the frontloading; something that could be the case again with TDVC. So, I'm not really worried about either. I think TDVC can get 85m-110m with it likely being at the higher half of the range. OTH 50m-70m.



That's more like it.

Yes. Over The Hedge's trailer was just fantastically received, and it also has the best release date of the year.

Well, Shrek 2 had a great trailer, but otherwise I agree. The thing almost seems like pure gold among family films. It has everything that kids want.

DP07: You are on a hot streak. I hope you keep it going with DVC, OTH, X3 and Cars (underperformance). The only one I hope you are wrong about is POTC2.

Thanks.

Not a Pirates fan?

well, looks like we are going to finally have a HUGE weekend

I don't hate it or anything. Just not much of a Pirates fan. I did like the trailer for POTC2 though.

He says the ceiling for its total is $300M.

Just wait till July.

Aren't you the same person (along with box) that argued with me that Shrek 2 had bad WOM?

But 300m?

Uh, no. That would probably be insomniacdude. I am fully aware of the excellent WOM S2 got, and fully expect The Third to have the second biggest opening of all time.

Behind Pirates 2.

It could certainly make more.


@Jon: Second biggest OW for Shrek3 would be good.

Wow! Fifth page, and its only Tuesday! This weekend predictions thread could be the longest in quite some time!!!

Why am I reminded so clearly of The Ring Two? DP07 didn't you predict...$70 million for that? Heh.

Anyway...

The Da Vinci Code -- $70 million
It's an adult oriented thriller, I don't see it able to notch up $90+ million when a lot of the younger target crowd doesn't seem to show interest. Sure, the book appealed to low-to-mid 20's crowd, but let's face it, I just don't see this film opening with over $100 million. So far the only films to do that have been Spider-Man (family-friendly), Shrek 2 (family favorite) and Star Wars 3 (family friendly). So for TDVC to open over even $90 million I just don't think is possible.

Now, the hype will likely allow it a large opening. Still $80 million is high. This is no Passion of the Christ as while church members might see it, there will be no churches booking theaters and bringing children which was a huge part of TPOTC's weekend numbers.

Also, these tracking numbers depend on awareness. TDVC is one of the best selling books of all-time. It was on the New York Time's Best Seller list for what...3 years or something? So of course, everyone and their mother has heard of it, that doesn't mean they are going to see it.

I'm really leaning toward a mid to high $60 million opening, maybe a bit higher.

Over the Hedge -- $55 million
See No Evil -- $3.0 million

Your Da Vinci Code prediction is about right, but I have a feeling after the reviews begin coming in, if they haven't already, then reality will set in and folks will realize that the movie's probably more boring than thrilling at 2 Hours and 30 Minutes and the 2nd weekend will plummet.....

Also, I thought I'd mention that occasionally (more if anyone finds it remotely interesting) I'll be writing box office predictions on my blog, which will of course have a wokj link up! But if anyone wanted to read my first edition of it, I would LOVE feedback. Box office Mojo, Guru, LMI, Report, WOKJ, etc have box office analysis of the numbers really covered, while I'm trying to just have a simpler, rambling on, casual box office analysis. I also will be alot more informal, so if people wanted me to ramble on more about something, I would for sure if there was interest! But check it out if your bored and have some time. Because I love doing extra early predictions, I might try and do early predictions pre coming soon's WW, haha. I also just heard that WOKJ will have some sort of blog element, so maybe I can mix them up a bit.

http://boxofficespotlight.blogspot.com/

every hold over is fuckin imploding next wknd.

BJs Offical Predictions:

The Da Vinci Code - 100.4m

Fri: 29.85m

Sat: 42.05m +40%

Sun: 28.50m -32%

Over the Hedge - 54m

See No Evil - 4.5m

rest of top ten - 39m

overall - 198m

Uh...right...

Nice work BJ.