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 superman returns predictons 
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Extraordinary

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Zingaling wrote:
Yiiiikes. $261 million is absolutely ridiculous for Superman Returns.

It'll make profit eventually, but still...


All of the budgets are getting a bit out of hand.

$250-300 m for Spiderman 3 is warranted, the last 2 did $370 m + domestically alone.

Xmen $210 m budget is not warranted. The films barely pass $210 m, and are not so big overseas. The first one had a $75 m budget, 2nd a $110 m budget, so $210 m is ridiculous. From the 2nd to 3rd was a 47% increase, and now a 91% increase. Its out of hand.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest ($225 million) is steep, but more reasonable than some of the others. The last one did $300 m and $650 m + overseas.

Superman at $261 m is incredibly out of hand. It is very very risky to have 2 $225 m + budgeted films (likely $300 m + each after marketing, and other costs) opening side by side. It could open the weekend of "Click" and do really well, or even in last July, but the crossing of these two films is bad for the industry itself, and the studios should work together better, as moviegoing is decreasing, so they need to think much better before making such risky moves...


Mon May 15, 2006 9:54 pm
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Superfreak
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thats so wrong...kong was 208 but they say 250.i dont buy the article.


Mon May 15, 2006 10:06 pm
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268 makes complete sense. the film has spent millions over th last 10 years just trying to get it off the ground. the cost of the production takes all of that into account. i would say that if we take all of that out, the cost would be around that of Kong or even lower.


Mon May 15, 2006 10:07 pm
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Superfreak
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well the preproduction costs for the padst ten years are around 60 million. that puts returns actual budget around 200 which is what weve been hearing.

that xmen 3 budget is such bs. fox is way to cheap to ever do that, and the film in only 104 minutes long, thats 2 million dollars a minute.


Mon May 15, 2006 10:09 pm
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Zingaling wrote:
Yiiiikes. $261 million is absolutely ridiculous for Superman Returns.

It'll make profit eventually, but still...


Hmm, with $261 million...it wouldn't break even in theatres.

I expect $170-210 million in the US and $400-450 million worldwide.

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Tue May 16, 2006 3:43 pm
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Extraordinary

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Thats an insane budget, i wonder what film will be the first to cost 300mill, probably spiderman 3 or superman returns 2.


Tue May 16, 2006 4:46 pm
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Magnus101 wrote:
Final poster

http://media.filmforce.ign.com/media/03 ... 09917.html

Could have been better but looks good.

I like it. It's loads better than X3's "final" poster. ;)

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zwackerm wrote:
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Tue May 16, 2006 7:14 pm
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i really dislike the actor who plays superman. It maes superman look corny.

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Tue May 16, 2006 7:18 pm
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While the X3 final poster is rather blah, at this point it really doesn't matter. X3 has a bajillion tv spots, the trailer has been seen by tons of people already, there was that 7 minute preview, and there is another sneak peak thing happening on Fri when FOX airs X2 on tv, i also heard there is going to be an HBO behind the scenes thing. That seems like a lot of footage previewed from a movie that is only an hour and 40 minutes, but i don't plan on watching any of these preview things and i change the channel when a tv spot comes on. I have the teaser and the trailer, that can hold me for another week. The simplicity (aka dullness) of the X3 poster won't hurt it at all.


Tue May 16, 2006 7:29 pm
Extraordinary
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Shite, the budget for X3 is 100m more then the last one.

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Tue May 16, 2006 7:32 pm
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I think the problem is they are overpaying the fx wizards way too much for CGI since its not like the CGI has improved drastically over the LOTR movies or Matrix movies yet the budget more than doubled

Lets start blaming teamster unions and overpaid CGI programmers :wacko: :tongue:

But seriously the problem is that rushed CGI and product seem to take up more of a budget than movies that take 2 years or more to finish. It could explain why the LOTR movies budget is quite low and the MR and Rev not taking more than 250 million to make together


Tue May 16, 2006 7:57 pm
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I'm liking that new poster.


Tue May 16, 2006 8:30 pm
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Superfreak
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HUGE SUPER UBER HUGE NEWS!!!!



A NEW TRAILER WILL BE WITH.....


XMEN 3: THE LAST STAND!!!



This better be better then the last one!!!!!


Tue May 16, 2006 9:22 pm
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as fo the poster i guess i like it, i wanted something more like star wars.

i mean, this looksmore like a teaser poster really. it reminds of episodes 3 teaser poster


Tue May 16, 2006 9:23 pm
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GAWD!!! some of u bitches piss me off.

BEST DAMN POSTER!! :good:

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Tue May 16, 2006 9:31 pm
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also, the new trailer is in at 2:36.


ok. trailers withs HARRY POTTER 4, V FOR VENDTTA, MI3, POSEIDON, AND XMEN 3.

that is some big ass awareness. this just really NEEDS NEEDS NEEDS to be really good.


Tue May 16, 2006 9:33 pm
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excel wrote:
also, the new trailer is in at 2:36.


ok. trailers withs HARRY POTTER 4, V FOR VENDTTA, MI3, POSEIDON, AND XMEN 3.

that is some big ass awareness. this just really NEEDS NEEDS NEEDS to be really good.


Awareness can only bring you this far. M:I-3 had 99% general awareness with its trailer being attached to pretty much everything...

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Tue May 16, 2006 9:38 pm
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Superfreak
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yes i know...but at this point all we can tell is awareness. there hasnt been eough tv ads in order to have real visible public hype.


Tue May 16, 2006 9:42 pm
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At the end of the day, no matter how much awareness you have it comes down to how many of those people are actually interested or care to see the film.

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Tue May 16, 2006 10:04 pm
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either way, this trailers a kick off of what will be an insane june marketing push. a lot of the merchandise is already out, food products are out. tie ins and promopartners wont be out till mid june. the toys are selling decently. but itll all go nuts when the tv spots start in 2-3 weeks. thats when itll all come.the hype.

also, im making my next, and final prediction for this movie on june 20th

effectiveness...the trailer wasnt really, the 2 tv spots it has are imo, very effective, especially that coke one i think was great.if this new trailer can be good, then i think itll have a lot going for it. the last trailer, aside from the bad editing, made the film look waay too dark, and needs more action. for example, watch the released tv spot and then the coke one, and they tone of the movie looks completely different.

this needs to make good use of the williams theme, make the movie looks LIGHT and ACTION PACKED.


Last edited by Excel on Tue May 16, 2006 10:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue May 16, 2006 10:44 pm
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Magnus101 wrote:
After trailer with X3, all the talk can be for SR is how effective its marketing is. Honestly, the awareness is there, it has the fanbase, and it has the holiday boost. The one factor that will determine if its opening will be huge or HUGE is how effective the marketing is.


sadly, all the marketing has been shit.

and as a lover of everything DC, it makes me very sad. fading away are my dreams of a superman/batman team up or **gasp** a justice league film.


Tue May 16, 2006 10:46 pm
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Superfreak
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ya...merchandise and dvd sales asure a sequel anyway, besides the fact this will get atleast 450 million ww(200/250).


Tue May 16, 2006 10:53 pm
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Extraordinary
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Magnus101 wrote:
Even if SR dissapoints, it'll still be profitable and the next one will be even more succuessful.

Depends on SR's quaility (to entertain).

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Tue May 16, 2006 10:55 pm
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Magnus101 wrote:
You may doubt the BO, but don't doubt Singer to make an entertaining flick.

No one's perfect.

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Tue May 16, 2006 10:57 pm
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Magnus101 wrote:
bABALINA wrote:
Magnus101 wrote:
After trailer with X3, all the talk can be for SR is how effective its marketing is. Honestly, the awareness is there, it has the fanbase, and it has the holiday boost. The one factor that will determine if its opening will be huge or HUGE is how effective the marketing is.


sadly, all the marketing has been shit.

and as a lover of everything DC, it makes me very sad. fading away are my dreams of a superman/batman team up or **gasp** a justice league film.


Are you serious? Even if SR dissapoints, it'll still be profitable and the next one will be even more succuessful. Same thing that happend to BB.

The DC franchies are WB big francheis, and trust me, they are going to be alive for a while.

A Superman/Batman or a JL movie WILL happend...though I'm thinking in like 10 years. Still happening though.


nope. i disagree. This isn't an FF4 that just had to pull in decent numbers. This film suffers from the same problem Begins did. It had to show in some way that it can restore faith in the people. How did it do so? By first

a) Creating the best multiplier for any batman film, which for batman is unheard of as it pretty much introduced front loading in films.
b) An out of this world word of mouth.
c) Finally, a theatrical gross that actually helped make up a big part of the expense.

Batman's marketing suffered not due to bad material but due to a bad campaign in general. As i mentioend fduring the batman days, it almost felt like the people who were dishing out the marketing stuff were doing a great job and then whoever was in charge of executing it was fucking it up.

With superman, you've so far had some bad execution and on top of that, horrible material. its looking less and less likely that this film can pull the begins phenomon. Will it be considered the best superhero batman film like many debated when batman came out? I doubt it. not to say batman is consdiered the best superhero flick but it did spark this debate even amongst the non fans. right now, the chances of supes doing that are unlikely, which does not bode well for superman.

batman managed, at the end of the day, not to disappoint which allowed the creative team to stay together. superman disappoints and its back to reengineering.


Tue May 16, 2006 10:59 pm
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