The Da Vinci Code (INTL.)
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Archangel
Forum General
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 9998 Location: Australia
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 The Da Vinci Code (INTL.)
THE DA VINCI CODE (INTL.)
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Surprisingly, none of Hanks's blockbusters have registered as well Internationall vs. Domestic. His biggest hit to date Forrest Gump only managed $350m International, pretty tame by today's uber-blockbuster standards.
DVC should be Hank's biggest International hit to date....i'm definitely seeing a potential $425-$450m Intl. hit combined with around $250m-$275m Domestic for a total around $650m-$725m.
Harry Potter 1: PS - $317,575,550 + $658,900,000 = $976,475,550 (#3) Harry Potter 4: GOF - $290,013,036 + $602,200,000 = $892,213,036 (#8) Lord Of The Rings: FOTR - $314,776,170 + $556,592,19 = $871,368,364 (#10) Star Wars 3: ROTS - $380,270,577 + $468,527,097 = $848,797,674 (#12) Chronciles Of Narnia - $291,710,957 + $449,895,000 = $741,605,957* (#20) The Matrix: Reloaded - $281,576,461 + $457,023,240 = $738,599,701 (#21) Forrest Gump - $329,694,499 + $347,692,187 = $677,386,686 (#22) The Passion Of The Christ - $370,782,930 + $241,116,490 = $611,899,420 (#28) Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - $185,040,000 + $410,148,941 = $595,188,941* (#29) War Of The Worlds - $234,280,354 + $357,135,962 = $591,416,316 (#30) King Kong - $218,080,025 + $331,136,767 = $549,216,792 (#33) Toy Story 2 - $245,852,179 + $239,163,000 = $485,015,179 (#45) Saving Private Ryan - $216,540,909 + $265,300,000 = $481,840,909 (#48) Mr. And Mrs. Smith - $186,336,279 + $291,871,241 = $478,207,520 (#49) Charlie And The Chocolate Factory - $206,459,076 + $268,509,687 = $474,968,763 (#52) The Matrix - $171,479,930 + $288,900,000 = $460,379,930 (#56) Cast Away - $233,632,142 + $196,000,000 = $429,632,142 (#69) The Matrix: Revolutions - $139,313,948 + $285,674,263 = $424,988,211 (#70)
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UNITED KINGDOM
While it lacks the Britishness of book adaptations such as HP, LOTR, Narnia and Bridget Jones...The DaVinci Code does have a "European" feel to it which should translate well to all European markets. But of course...who cares what type of feel the movie has.....the lacklustre performance of MI3 combined with growing hype for the movie's release should translate to huge box-office takings.
Comparatively, The Passion Of The Christ's performance in the UK was quite ordinary compared to takings in Italy and Spain...understandbly so. However, DaVinci Code has a lot more going for it, it has the Christian undertones, International A-Star cast, mystery and intrigue which combined with a more mainstream and digestible form should lead to a lengthy and fruitful run.
Tom Hanks record in the UK has been quite ordinary, his biggest hits Domestically, Forrest Gump, Saving Private Ryan and Cast Away failed to break the 20m pound mark here. Toy Story 2 being the exception of course.
Ice Age 2 has the largest opening for 2006 with £9,775,974....the only non-sequel movies to launch above 10m pounds on opening weekend are HP1 and FOTR....and no non-franchise movie has ever surpassed that mark. Incredibles is the closest at £9,874,782. Can DaVinci Code make it.....doubtful, though i'm sure it has the potential to generate an opening above 8m pounds. Narnia should be a good target at £8,884,111.
Passion Christ managed a 4x multiplier....and most adult oriented hits do register multipliers either at or above this mark. I'm expecting a final gross around 35-40m pounds.
Harry Potter 1: PS - £66,096,060 Lord Of The Rings: FOTR - £63,051,172 Harry Potter 4: GOF - £48,769,888 Toy Story 2 - £44,306,070 Chronicles Of Narnia - £43,903,294 Star Wars 3: ROTS - £39,322,053 Charlie And The Chocolate Factory - £37,462,140 The Matrix: Reloaded - £33,423,117 Wallace & Gromit - £32,007,310 War Of The Worlds - £30,648,315 King Kong - £30,075,013 Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - £27,804,478* Madagascar - £22,654,878 Toy Story 1 - £22,297,733 Saving Private Ryan - £19,233,566 Forrest Gump - £16,353,864 Catch Me If You Can - £15,044,459 Cast Away - £14,571,627 Apollo 13 - £12,300,198 The Passion Of The Christ - £11,078,861 The Polar Express - £9,786,140 National Treasure - £7,191,556
The DaVinci Code - £40m
GERMANY
Hanks has a very good track record in Germany with his biggest blockbusters doing extremely well. Though not since Catch Me If You Can did he star in something which grossed more than 3m admissions.
Germany is neutral enough to be unaffected by any Christian hoopla....and the mystery/adventure genre normally plays quite well in Germany. I don't expect DVC to break any records here, but all going well, it should place #3 behind POTC2 and IA2. for the Summer.
Harry Potter 1: PS - 12.556.007 adms. Lord Of The Rings: FOTR - 11.831.850 adms. Harry Potter 4: GOF - 7.915.895 adms. Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - 7.891.716 adms.* Forrest Gump - 7.615.026 adms. Madagascar - 6.701.828 adms. Star Wars 3: ROTS - 5.620.503 adms. Cast Away - 4.950.894 adms. Hitch - 4.336.672 adms. Chronicles Of Narnia - 3.889.929 adms. Saving Private Ryan - 3.749.146 adms. Mr. And Mrs. Smith - 3.575.201 adms. You've Got Mail - 3.551.984 adms. Catch Me If You Can - 3.473.003 adms. Philidelphia - 3.314.638 adms. Toy Story 2 - 2.948.160 adms. Apollo 13 - 2.831.008 adms. War Of The Worlds - 2.717.801 adms. Toy STory 1 - 2.621.941 adms. King Kong - 2.538.003 adms. A Beautiful Mind - 2.473.742 adms. Sleepless In Seattle - 2.111.804 adms. The Green Mile - 2.107.877 adms. National Treasure - 1.698.376 adms. The Polar Express - 1.544.874 adms. The Passion Of The Christ - 1.351.113 adms.
The DaVinci Code - 7m adms.
FRANCE
I'm not expecting anything lower than $40m in France, the cast has so much pedigree and the French should eat this one up.
It might not scale the heights of Les Bronzes 3, though could definately give Ice Age 2 a challenge......$10m opening for a $55m finish.
Les Bronzes 3: Amis Pour La Vie - $70m Harry Potter 4: GOF - $52.5m Star Wars 3: ROTS - $50.8m Harry Potter 1: PS - $48.138m Amelie - $44.454m Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - $40.4m* Lord Of The Rings: FOTR - $35.119m Chronicles Of Narnia - $33.8m The Matrix: Reloaded - $33.146m Un Long Dimache De Fiancailles - $31.380m The Matrix - $30.630m Charlie And The Chocolate Factory - $27.7m Saving Private Ryan - $27.154m War Of The Worlds - $27.7m Toy Story 2 - $26.100m King Kong - $24.5m The Matrix: Revolutions - $24.213m Ocean's Eleven - $24.187m Mission Dollar Baby - $22.2m Ocean's Twelve - $21.712m La Doublure - $21.1m* Catch Me If You Can - $20.873m Toy Story 1 - $18.168m The Passion Of The Christ - $11.9m National Treasure - $11m
The DaVinci Code - $55m
AUSTRALIA
Promotions have been very strong in Australia, with banners being erected around the same time as MI3. Whatever does well in UK, normally translates well in Australia.
Lord Of The Rings: FOTR - AUD$47,319,463 Harry Potter 1: PS - AUD$42,313,847 Star Wars 3: ROTS - AUD$35,453,636 Harry Potter 4: GOF - AUD$35,448,830 Chronicles Of Narnia - AUD$34,988,517 The Matrix: Reloaded - AUD$33,624,930 Forrest Gump - AUD$30,562,133 Madagascar - AUD$25,426,110 Charlie And The Chocolate Factory - AUD$24,497,897 Saving Private Ryan - AUD$24,172,708 The Matrix - AUD$23,160,219 Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - AUD$23,092,126* Ocean's Eleven - AUD$22,234,443 War Of The Worlds - AUD$21,559,982 King Kong - AUD$21,449,746 Mr And Mrs Smith - AUD$20,403,665 Cast Away - AUD$20,261,501 Toy Story 2 - AUD$20,131,422 A Beautiful Mind - AUD$19,792,193 The Matrix: Revolutions - AUD$18,135,935 Ocean's Twelve - AUD$15,819,377 Batman Begins - AUD$15,770,796 The Passion Of The Christ - AUD$15,323,932 Catch Me If You Can - AUD$14,850,198 Toy Story 1 - AUD$13,690,357 The Green Mile - AUD$13,062,973 The Polar Express - AUD$10,032,942 National Treasure - AUD$6,455,288
The DaVinci Code - $30m
SPAIN
Both Passion and National Treasure did quite well in Spain, and we've seen the average for a blockbuster creeping towards the $20m mark thanks to the strength of the euro compared to past years.
I'm expecting a $23-25m total.
Lord Of The Rings: FOTR - $27.8m Harry Potter 1: PS - $24.6m Harry Potter 4: GOF - $24.7m Star Wars 3: ROTS - $23.6m Chronciles Of Narnia - $22.5m Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - $22.9m* War Of The Worlds - $19.9m The Matrix: Reloaded - $19.6m National Treasure - $16.6m Madagascar - $16.5m King Kong - $15m The Passion Of The Christ - $14m Catch Me If You Can - $8.9m
The DaVinci Code - $25m
ITALY
Should be one of DVC's bigger markets, Passion, Narnia and National Treasure all did very well and Hanks has a very solid track record in Italy.
Expect a $30m+ finish and one of the biggest openings of all-time. ROTK still holds the record at $12.2m followed closely by Passion at $12m. If hype is anything to come by, this certainly has the potential to reach those heights
Harry Potter 1: PS - $35.8m Madagascar - $32m Harry Potter 4: GOF - $31m Il Mio Miglior Nemico - $30m* Lord Of The Rings: FOTR - $30.4m Chronicles Of Narnia - $26m Ice Age 2: The Meltdown - $25m* Ocean's Eleven - $25m The Passion Of The Christ - $24.3m Manuale d'Amore (Love Manual) - $23m La Tigre e la Neve (The Tiger And The Snow) - $22m The Matrix: Reloaded - $20.7m War Of The Worlds - $20m A Beautiful Mind - $20.6m Forrest Gump - $20m Cast Away - $19.6m Saving Private Ryan - $18.7m
The DaVinci Code - $30m
JAPAN
Hanks would have to be the 2nd most bankable star in Japan behind Cruise, his hits have done pretty well with Green Mile being his largest at 6.5m admissions and $55.3m.
The DVC books have sold extremely well in Japan, and should easily register a total above $30m.
Harry Potter 1: PS - $170.1m The Matrix: Reloaded - $104.3m Harry Potter 4: GOF - $92m Star Wars 3: ROTS - $83m The Matrix - $71m The Matrix: Revolutions - $64m Lord Of The Rings: FOTR - $68.2m Ocean's Eleven - $59.3m Chronicles Of Narnia - $57.3m* The Green Mile - $55.3m War Of The Worlds - $54m The Wow-Choten Hotel - $48.1m* Charlie And The Chocolate Factory - $47.5m Forrest Gump - ~$40m Otoko-tachi no Yamato - $39.3m Mr And Mrs. Smith - $38.7m Ocean's Twelve - $35.2m Saving Private Ryan - $31.5m Toy Story 2 - $30.2m Cast Away - $26.4m National Treasure - $17m The Passion Of The Christ - $11m
The DaVinci Code - $70m
_________________ Im Archangel. Telin le thaed. Lasto beth nin, tolo dan nan galad.
I surrender who I've been for who you are Nothing makes me stronger than your fragile heart If I had only felt how it feels to be yours I would have known what I've been living for all along What I've been living for
Last edited by Archangel on Tue Jul 25, 2006 4:56 am, edited 9 times in total.
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Sat May 13, 2006 11:48 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23385 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Arch - yeah there are build boards everywhere. Noticed that the two on the Westgate Bridge/freeway are DaVinci code and X3.
Also noticed that Sunrise has "DaVinci Code" week on the show. That never happens. This will be huge. Im thinking $40m total.
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Sun May 14, 2006 12:05 am |
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Archangel
Forum General
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 9998 Location: Australia
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MadGez wrote: Arch - yeah there are build boards everywhere. Noticed that the two on the Westgate Bridge/freeway are DaVinci code and X3.
Also noticed that Sunrise has "DaVinci Code" week on the show. That never happens. This will be huge. Im thinking $40m total.
It's also at Flinders Street Station.....every year at this time there's always a big promotion there....TDAT in 2004, ROTS in 2005 and DVC in 2006.
Can't wait to see it, probably on Friday......i haven't read the books, so i'm coming into with no idea what's gonna happen...LOL 
_________________ Im Archangel. Telin le thaed. Lasto beth nin, tolo dan nan galad.
I surrender who I've been for who you are Nothing makes me stronger than your fragile heart If I had only felt how it feels to be yours I would have known what I've been living for all along What I've been living for
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Sun May 14, 2006 1:40 am |
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Neostorm
All Star Poster
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 2:48 pm Posts: 4684 Location: Toronto
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I really like this thread (like all of your other threads) archangel. Admins should seriously consider posting your numbers/analysis on the main page as it's a fun and informative read 
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Sun May 14, 2006 1:57 am |
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teenman
The Incredible Hulk
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 1:10 pm Posts: 510
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You're sure that DVC will gross $11m more than Amelie in France? Both starred Audrey.
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Sun May 14, 2006 3:43 am |
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Archangel
Forum General
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 9998 Location: Australia
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teenman wrote: You're sure that DVC will gross $11m more than Amelie in France? Both starred Audrey.
Why not? If Amelie was released today and grossed the same as it did. i.e. 8,631,452 adms. it's total would be well over $55m.
Plus, DVC is not just about Audrey Tatou.
EDIT:
FRANCE (Post 1990)
Les Bronzes becomes the first movie since 2002's Asterix Mission Clepatre to gross more than 10m admissions in France. Last year's top grosser, HP4 topped out at 7.73m (3rd highest for the franchise)
Titanic (1998) - 20.758.887 adms. Astérix et Obélix: Mission Cléopatre (2002) - 14.557.020 adms. The Visitors (1993) - 13.728.242 adms. Taxi 2 (2000) - 10.347.329 adms. Les Bronzes 3: Amis Pour La Vie (2006) - 10,340,000 adms. The Lion King (1994) - 10.112.444 adms. Harry Potter 1: PS (2001) - 9,470,090 adms. Finding Nemo (2003) - 9.387,283 Le Dîner de cons (The Dinner Game) (1998) - 9.231.507 adms. Harry Potter 2: COS (2002) - 9.145.051 adms. Asterix and Obelix vs. Caesar (1999) - 8.944.457 adms. Les Choristes (2004) - 8,655,783 adms. Amelie (2001) - 8.635.307 adms. The Visitors 2: The Corridors Of Time (1998) - 8.035.342 adms. Tarzan (1999) - 7.906.947 adms. An Indian In Paris (1994) - 7.870.802 adms. La Vérité Si Je Mens! 2 (Would I Lie To You? 2) (2001) - 7.868.648 adms. The Sixth Sense (1999) - 7.792.166 adms. Harry Potter 4: GOF (2005) - 7,730,000 adms. The Fifth Element (1997) - 7.727,697 adms. Lord Of The Rings: ROTK (2003) - 7.380,000 adms. Star Wars 1: PM (1999) - 7,300,155 adms. Aladdin (1993) - 7.280.423 adms. Dancing With Wolves (1991) - 7.278.868 adms. Star Wars 3: ROTS (2005) - 7,215,000 adms. Shrek 2 (2004) - 7,132,492 Harry Potter 3: POA (2004) - 7,111,000 adms. Lord Of The Rings: TTT (2002) - 7.060.000 adms. Lord Of The Rings: FOTR (2001) - 6.920.000 adms. Taxi 1 (1998) - 6,464,411 adms. Jurassic Park 1 (1993) - 6,512,665 adms. Spiderman 1 (2002) - 6,459,120 adms. Ice Age 2: The Meltdown (2006) - 6,179,493 adms.* Germinal (1993) - 6,139,961 adms. Taxi 3 (2003) - 6,117,383 adms.
Just managed to compile the list a momment ago......LOL 
_________________ Im Archangel. Telin le thaed. Lasto beth nin, tolo dan nan galad.
I surrender who I've been for who you are Nothing makes me stronger than your fragile heart If I had only felt how it feels to be yours I would have known what I've been living for all along What I've been living for
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Sun May 14, 2006 3:52 am |
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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm Posts: 13056 Location: Augsburg (2,040 years young)
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There's one thing that's gonna help DVC and all the other blockbusters (especially the underachievers like M:I3 and POSEIDON):
Right now the US-Dollar is at its weakest in nine years. Just in the last month the Euro/Dollar exchange rate went from $1.20=€1.00 to $1.29=€1.00 and some business people predict it could go down even further...
In other words:
A 100m Euro grosser would have been a $120m grosser a month ago and is now a $129m grosser - lucky Hollywood!
If DVC looked like a $450m international grosser last month, it's gonna be a $484m international grosser this month just because of the exchange rate...
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Sun May 14, 2006 6:51 am |
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Andrew
Lover of Bacon
Joined: Sat Jan 01, 2005 7:05 pm Posts: 4197 Location: Sherwood Forest, UK
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 Re: The Da Vinci Code (INTL.)
~~~Archangel~~~ wrote: UNITED KINGDOM
While it lacks the Britishness of book adaptations such as HP, LOTR, Narnia and Bridget Jones...The DaVinci Code does have a "European" feel to it which should translate well to all European markets. But of course...who cares what type of feel the movie has.....the lacklustre performance of MI3 combined with growing hype for the movie's release should translate to huge box-office takings.
Comparatively, The Passion Of The Christ's performance in the UK was quite ordinary compared to takings in Italy and Spain...understandbly so. However, DaVinci Code has a lot more going for it, it has the Christian undertones, International A-Star cast, mystery and intrigue which combined with a more mainstream and digestible form should lead to a lengthy and fruitful run.
Tom Hanks record in the UK has been quite ordinary, his biggest hits Domestically, Forrest Gump, Saving Private Ryan and Cast Away failed to break the 20m pound mark here. Toy Story 2 being the exception of course.
Ice Age 2 has the largest opening for 2006 with £9,775,974....the only non-sequel movies to launch above 10m pounds on opening weekend are HP1 and FOTR....and no non-franchise movie has ever surpassed that mark. Incredibles is the closest at £9,874,782. Can DaVinci Code make it.....doubtful, though i'm sure it has the potential to generate an opening above 8m pounds. Narnia should be a good target at £8,884,111.
Passion Christ managed a 4x multiplier....and most adult oriented hits do register multipliers either at or above this mark. I'm expecting a final gross around 35-40m pounds.
Overall i agree with your analysis for the UK and i have fairly similar expectations. I would however argue that it doesn't lack the 'britishniess' of other films as the latter part is heavily set (and filmed) in the UK. I remember there being a lot of media attention during the fillming in Lincoln Cathedral and the hype hasn't died down much since. Advertising is the strongest i've seen for a long time and i see this challenging for the biggest non sequel, non franchise opening ever.
My predictions - Huge opening: £9.5million
Decent legs: £40+million finish (2nd for the year only to POTC2)
_________________ ... and there's something about this city today, like all the colours conspired to overwhelm the grey...
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Sun May 14, 2006 7:18 am |
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Archangel
Forum General
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 9998 Location: Australia
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mark66 wrote: There's one thing that's gonna help DVC and all the other blockbusters (especially the underachievers like M:I3 and POSEIDON): Right now the US-Dollar is at its weakest in nine years. Just in the last month the Euro/Dollar exchange rate went from $1.20=€1.00 to $1.29=€1.00 and some business people predict it could go down even further...
In other words: A 100m Euro grosser would have been a $120m grosser a month ago and is now a $129m grosser - lucky Hollywood!
If DVC looked like a $450m international grosser last month, it's gonna be a $484m international grosser this month just because of the exchange rate...
It just pains me sometimes to see lesser movies pass FOTR because of the exchange rate  , FOTR and HP1 in today's exchange rate would cradle the $1bil mark.
I wonder when we'll see the next $1bil movie, Shrek 3 is the earliest candidate (though its hard to see how higher it can go with Shrek 2 already having huge takings worldwide)...the final HP might be able to do it....though we won't see that until 2010.
Andrew:
Thankyou for your insights into the UK market, i don't live there so i'm not sure of the dynamics or buzz level of DVC....i can only see from a generalist point of view. BTW, stop copying me....that 40m pound prediction is MINE! 
_________________ Im Archangel. Telin le thaed. Lasto beth nin, tolo dan nan galad.
I surrender who I've been for who you are Nothing makes me stronger than your fragile heart If I had only felt how it feels to be yours I would have known what I've been living for all along What I've been living for
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Sun May 14, 2006 8:05 am |
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baumer72
Mod Team Leader
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 11:00 pm Posts: 7087 Location: Crystal Lake
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Thanks for your awesome analysis as always Archangel. Love it!!
_________________ Brick Tamland: Yeah, there were horses, and a man on fire, and I killed a guy with a trident.
Ron Burgundy: Brick, I've been meaning to talk to you about that. You should find yourself a safehouse or a relative close by. Lay low for a while, because you're probably wanted for murder.
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Sun May 14, 2006 8:07 am |
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Andrew
Lover of Bacon
Joined: Sat Jan 01, 2005 7:05 pm Posts: 4197 Location: Sherwood Forest, UK
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~~~Archangel~~~ wrote: Andrew:Thankyou for your insights into the UK market, i don't live there so i'm not sure of the dynamics or buzz level of DVC....i can only see from a generalist point of view. BTW, stop copying me....that 40m pound prediction is MINE! 
I love reading your International threads, the only analysis i can really comment on is the UK one  I think you're pretty much spot on this time 
_________________ ... and there's something about this city today, like all the colours conspired to overwhelm the grey...
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Sun May 14, 2006 8:17 am |
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Archangel
Forum General
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 9998 Location: Australia
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I think this article pretty much sums up how DVC is lining up worldwide....
World enters 'Da Vinci' mode
By ELIZABETH GUIDER
http://www.variety.com/VR1117943021.html
From Rome to Tokyo, Stuttgart to Seoul, "The Da Vinci Code" seems set to capitalize on the controversy surrounding its take on Christianity.
Across Europe, local exhibs insist they're confident the Sony pic will become one of the bigger blockbusters in their countries when it opens next week.
And despite a lack of familiarity with Christian values and symbolism in the Far East, awareness of the movie and the hoopla surrounding it is piquing moviegoers' interest there, too.
Still, opening in the summer is not the same thing abroad as it is Stateside. Europeans love to take advantage of the warm weather to be outdoors, and in Japan, the big moviegoing season gets rolling only in mid-July.
Cannes
For its part, Sony is doing everything it can to prime the pump, with tailormade promotional gimmicks in most territories and an opening-night premiere at the Cannes Film Festival Wednesday. The first worldwide press screening isn't until 8:30 p.m. Tuesday in Cannes, which means "Da Vinci" is opening in several key territories in Europe, including France, without a single bona fide review having been published.
Apparently, they're not needed.
"The film is generating widespread interest among folks who haven't even read the novel. The Grail, the Knights Templar, the secrets of the Catholic Church -- it's great fun and lets the imagination run wild," enthused one Teutonic exhibexhib.
The thriller, starring Tom HanksTom Hanks and Audrey TautouAudrey Tautou, appears to have struck a particular chord with Europeans by turning a thousand years of their history into pop culture and giving them the chance to look with newfound interest at their own heritage.
What's more, local Euro interest in the Catholic Church, its pageantry and inner workings has soared since the election last year of German Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger as Pope Benedict XVI.
Vatican
Not that the Vatican itself is pleased about the pic. Some in the Church hierarchy are seeing red, and conservative pols profess outrage.
"Cartoons about Islam caused controversy, but what about the Catholic Church and Christianity being heavily offended? This is unacceptable," carped politico Gianni Plinio of Italy's right-wing National Alliance. He has spearheaded a "Da Vinci Code: No Grazie" boycott committee.
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Italy
Still, Sony and local exhibs are bracing for a killing in Italy. Expectations for "Da Vinci" in this nominally Catholic country are on a parpar with the boffoboffo B.O.B.O. of "The Passion of the Christ" -- meaning a gross of approximately E25 million ($32 million).
"We're hopeful for obvious reasons: There has simply been more buzz here than other places," said Sony's local marketing director, Aldo Lemme.
Pic will be going out on a massive 850 screens -- almost half the country's capacity.
Consensus is that even if the Vatican were to mobilize priests to sermonize Sunday against "Da Vinci," it would not make much difference, since less than one-third of Italy's population are practicing Catholics. That segment is in large part over 65 -- not the prime demo for the pic.
Germany
In Germany, the top market for American pics abroad, exhibs are forecasting grosses as high as $44 million, depending on the weather. ("MI3" disappointed there two weeks ago in part because of too much sunshine.)
Such a tally would put "Da Vinci" on a par with the Teutonic take of "Madagascar" ($45 million) but below that of "Ice Age 2" ($54 million).
Due to Germany's notoriously poor B.O. during the spring and summer months, local exhibs are not fans of day-and-date releases.
"The film would be considerably more successful if it opened in the fall," one exhib opined.
United Kingdom
Nevertheless, pic is getting plenty of coverage in the local press, just as the plagiarism trial involving author Dan Brown has fanned the flames of interest in the movie in Britain.
"Christianity, Christian ideas and ideals have for good reason withstood so many challenges that a 'Da Vinci Code' whodunit in no way presents a threat," director Ron HowardRon Howard recently reassured the German press.
France
In France, where locals particularly relish intellectual controversy, the "Da Vinci" debat is in full swing as church leaders, media pundits, mags and chat sites all chime in on the pic's premise.
And if that weren't enough, the setting in the Louvre and the roles played by French faves Tautou and Jean RenoJean Reno mean not one filmgoer in Gaul is unaware of the pic.
Even the Eurostar, the train that runs from Paris to London, has gotten in on the act with a cross-marketing scheme called "The Da Vinci Adventure." Train is selling a reduced ticket-hotel combo for travelers, with a treasure hunt offering a first prize of e200,000 ($250,000).
Practically the entire local press have the pic plastered on their covers, with "hard-hitting" questions for Howard, Hanks and Tautou concerning their own religious beliefs and whether they believe "Da Vinci's" contention that Mary Magdalene and Jesus Christ had a child together.
French clergy have objected with varying degrees of energy, with one irate Dominican friar accusing the "Da Vinci" moviemakers of trying to destroy the Christian tradition.
(Similar discord dogged Mel GibsonMel Gibson's "The Passion of the Christ," but in the end it did nothing but pump that pic's Gallic grosses.)
Spain
In Spain, the arty whodunitwhodunit could follow the fortunes of "Ice Age 2" and help turn the exhibition scene around.
"If 'Da Vinci' goes big, it's very unlikely Spain will be down this year from 2005," said Jose Manuel Pimienta, Nielsen EDI's local managing director.
Thanks largely to a boffo $23 million gross from "Ice Age 2," Spanish B.O. through April was $265 million, up 8% vs. the first four months of 2005, according to Nielsen EDI Spain stats.
"It should be the film of the year in Spain," cinema booker Roberto Bayon opined.
Another booker said companies have bought out entire sessions in advance as a gift to employees.
Sony's marketing campaign for Spain involves fitting out bus stops with interactive gizmos that download the "Da Vinci" trailer.
The Opus Dei theme should have particular resonance in Spain, where the secretive religious order is headquartered. Org still draws suspicion from Spain's left for its closeness to dictator Francisco Franco's regime.
"You could call the controversy part of the film's marketing campaign, as it does nothing but benefit the movie," one Spanish exhib said.
China
In the Far East, Sony has other issues to deal with -- not only the potential for piracy of its prints and the scissors of censors, but also the challenge of tilting the promotion to entice a non-Christian audience.
China is thus receiving particular attention from Sony marketers.
A whopping 400 prints are going out in the world's most populous country for the May 18 opening, and moves to thwart would-be pirates are unprecedented.
Li Chow, Sony Pictures' general manager in China, told Daily Variety that workers would hand-carry reels to the moviehouses and guards would be dispatched to monitor folks entering theaters.
The promos in China astutely de-emphasize religious imagery (which many wouldn't understand anyway) and play upon the cultural themes. That approach helps explain why the censors passed the movie so easily.
It's the first day-and-date release this year in China, and 400 prints are a lot for a foreign movie; Sony's "King Kong" went out on 380.
There are varying reports on how many people have actually read the novel in China, but the number is estimated at 10 million out of a population of 1.25 billion.
A problem for Chinese auds even with the book was translating Christian concepts to a largely materialist China: The Holy Grail, for example, doesn't mean anything to Chinese auds and required specialist translation.
Japan
Meanwhile, in Japan, pic is being released on 866 screens -- the max for that territory -- according to Sony marketing VP Megumi Fukasawa.
DistribDistrib is hoping for a gross of ¥10 billion ($90 million), which is as high as a foreign pic can expect to go.
Sales of the book have passed the 8.8 million mark, which makes it a megaseller here.
The lack of familiarity with the Christian history and symbolism won't be a problem, Sony's Fukasawa contended: "The film is entertainment: It won't be difficult to understand."
The timing of the release in Japan, however, could be better, as the summer season doesn't really get going until mid-July. But Sony plans to keep the film in the theaters long enough to catch the summer crowd when it eventually materializes.
Korea
The dynamics are somewhat different in South Korea.
In a country where Christian fundamentalism is an influential force, the religious issues have been widely discussed in the press and on the Internet.
South Korea's largest Christian group, the Christian Council of Korea, filed a provisional injunction to the Seoul District Court in early April to block the film's release.
Although the court is not expected to block the release, the CCK also has pressured distributor Sony to publicly acknowledge fictional elements in the plot. (Sony hasn't complied.)
A general meeting of Korean Christian orgs is expected to be held Tuesday in order to issue a joint statement on the film.
Meanwhile, a poll of Korean audiences conducted by online reservations site Maxmovie.com has "Da Vinci" in the top spot among the most highly anticipated Hollywood releases of the summer.
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That 850 screen count in Italy would make DVC the widest launch of all-time in that market.....suprisingly, it's not Passion or LOTR which holds the record there........it's Troy at 822 followed by Spiderman 2 and TTT at 800.
Germany might prove to be a worry for all movies this Summer........good weather and the looming World Cup will prevent any movie from breaking out.
The smaller Asian markets might be it's biggest challenge.....controversy can only get you so far....and "action" normally speak louder than words in this part of the world.....
That aside, it should become the 6th movie to break $100m on opening weekend worldwide. Unlike MI3, it's launching in Japan and China as well......if MI3 can do $70m with some lacklustre openings and without Japan/China, DVC might reach the heights of ROTS/ROTK if it hits in all key markets.
Star Wars 3: ROTS - $145,534,793 (All except Japan/SKorea - 105c/114t//10,489) Lord Of The Rings: ROTK - $126.8m (UK/Germany/France/Scandinavia/Latin America – 28/7403) The Matrix: Revolutions - $119,037,452 (Most markets - 80+/10,013) Harry Potter 3: POA - $113.51m (UK/France/Germany/Italy/LatinAmerica/Netherlands - 24/7885) or $135.8m week War Of The Worlds - $110,085,902 (5-Day - All except France/SKorea - 79/9955) or $133m week Lord Of The Rings: TTT - $99.8m (UK/Germany/France/Scandinavia/Latin America - 27/5400) Harry Potter 4: GOF - $85.5m (UK/Germany/Mexico - 19/5300) or $103m week The Day After Tomorrow - $85,384,957 (Most markets except Japan - 110/9276) King Kong - $83,338,788 (Most markets - 56/7028) or $120,892,056 week Mission Impossible 3 - $70,028,165 (Most markets except Japan/China - 56/6997) or $81.3m week X-Men 2: X-Men United - $69,270,300 (Most markets - 93/7585)
Currently pegging DVC at around $120-$125m opening weekend worldwide.
The All-time print record is held by ROTK at 11,700 from 38 markets in its 2nd weekend.......judging by how wide this movie is going in the key markets............expect something close, and definately above 10,000 prints.
Lord Of The Rings: ROTK – 11,700 (38) – Wk. 2 Harry Potter 4: GOF – 11,513 (57) – Wk. 3 Harry Potter 4: GOF – 10,937 (58) – Wk. 4 Star Wars 3: ROTS – 10,591 (106) – Wk. 2 Star Wars 3: ROTS – 10,489 (114) – Wk. 1 Troy – 10,272 (58) – Wk. 2 The Matrix: Revolutions – 10,013 (80c+/109t) – Wk. 1 + 2 Harry Potter 3: POA – 10,000 (48) – Wk. 3
_________________ Im Archangel. Telin le thaed. Lasto beth nin, tolo dan nan galad.
I surrender who I've been for who you are Nothing makes me stronger than your fragile heart If I had only felt how it feels to be yours I would have known what I've been living for all along What I've been living for
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Sun May 14, 2006 8:38 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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It'll do fine in Germany, the weather is getting worse..rainier...
I see about 5,000,000-5,500,000 admissions in Germany.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sun May 14, 2006 8:45 am |
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baumer72
Mod Team Leader
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 11:00 pm Posts: 7087 Location: Crystal Lake
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This has always been one of my main points, the controversy surrounding the film will send this to a different stratosphere. Worldwide, this film could do Matrix Reloaded type numbers, maybe even higher.
_________________ Brick Tamland: Yeah, there were horses, and a man on fire, and I killed a guy with a trident.
Ron Burgundy: Brick, I've been meaning to talk to you about that. You should find yourself a safehouse or a relative close by. Lay low for a while, because you're probably wanted for murder.
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Sun May 14, 2006 9:49 am |
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Michael.
No Wire Tampons!
Joined: Sat Jan 08, 2005 12:27 am Posts: 23283
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By the way, half of the Da Vinci Code is set in the UK. Im not sure how that says it doesnt have the same britishness of books like LOTR, because it definately does.
Rosslyn Chapel has been massively busy since the book was published . On a sidenote ive been offered a private tour of the Chapel aside from the tourists  ! *does top secret mason handshake*
_________________ I'm out.
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Sun May 14, 2006 10:06 am |
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Mesjarch
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Tue May 03, 2005 5:41 am Posts: 2388 Location: Poland
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I think that Da Vinci Code could make $10m+ in Poland. It would need a little bit over 2m admissions which is very possible with the ammount of advertising it gets.
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Sun May 14, 2006 10:24 am |
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Michael.
No Wire Tampons!
Joined: Sat Jan 08, 2005 12:27 am Posts: 23283
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One more thing, I believe Da Vinci has the potential to break £10m in the UK in its first week. The buzz is huge, the sales are huge. everything is HUGE.
_________________ I'm out.
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Sun May 14, 2006 10:34 am |
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Mr. R
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Mon Feb 20, 2006 3:19 pm Posts: 2231
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The movie will be a HUGE hit in Russia, I believe $20+ mln. is very possible. The book is on top of all bestseller lists for more than 2 years. Nearly everybody knows about the book, even those, who haven't read. There's a kind of 'Brown craze' here, because his other books are also bestsellers.
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Sun May 14, 2006 11:14 am |
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Andrew
Lover of Bacon
Joined: Sat Jan 01, 2005 7:05 pm Posts: 4197 Location: Sherwood Forest, UK
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I now think a £10m+ opening weekend is possible in the UK, my theatre added a midnight screening because of high pre-sale figures which they said was 'in line with a Harry Potter film'!!
_________________ ... and there's something about this city today, like all the colours conspired to overwhelm the grey...
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Mon May 15, 2006 3:37 am |
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DarkWater
Speed Racer
Joined: Sun Dec 26, 2004 9:33 am Posts: 108
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In Greece is going big.
Reports say that almost all of the screens are sold out...for the whole weekend
(Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday).
Last time we had something big in the opening weekend, was with Troy but not as big as Da Vinci..
Looks like its going to break the record of the biggest opening ever in Greece...
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Mon May 15, 2006 7:18 am |
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Archangel
Forum General
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 9998 Location: Australia
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DarkWater wrote: In Greece is going big.
Reports say that almost all of the screens are sold out...for the whole weekend (Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday).
Last time we had something big in the opening weekend, was with Troy but not as big as Da Vinci..
Looks like its going to break the record of the biggest opening ever in Greece...
Current record holder in Greece is ROTK ($1.9m 5-Days), though Troy has the weekend record at $1.7m ($1.8m with previews). If it's selling out at this rate and has the strength of the euro behidn it, this could easily pass $2m by todays' standards.
Russia's potential is huge, it might even challenge Day Watch as the largest opening of all-time ($9m).
Buzz in Europe is proving too big to ignore at the momment.....i have to raise my predictions to $300m + $500 = $800m
Bring it on!
_________________ Im Archangel. Telin le thaed. Lasto beth nin, tolo dan nan galad.
I surrender who I've been for who you are Nothing makes me stronger than your fragile heart If I had only felt how it feels to be yours I would have known what I've been living for all along What I've been living for
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Mon May 15, 2006 7:29 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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The weather is still relatively nice here...hmmm...might hurt Da Vinci a bit.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Mon May 15, 2006 7:42 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Um, wow.
The Da Vinci Code is getting the most screentimes and screens at my theatre since Harry Potter 4.
Uhh...I think a 1,500,000+ opening is in store.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Mon May 15, 2006 7:47 am |
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Mr. R
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Mon Feb 20, 2006 3:19 pm Posts: 2231
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~~~Archangel~~~ wrote: Russia's potential is huge, it might even challenge Day Watch as the largest opening of all-time ($9m).
Well it's hard to say, Day Watch (I have great doubts about its official box-office, although I saw the huge lines at the theater) was released on holidays and had huge marketing campaign with the help of major TV channel showing its trailers every 15-20 minutes. The Da Vinci Code has none of these advantages (I haven't seen the trailers on TV), its grosses will be based generally on extremely high anticipations and awareness I think. And don't forget about bootleggers.
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Mon May 15, 2006 8:47 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Rumpelschtiltzchen wrote: ~~~Archangel~~~ wrote: Russia's potential is huge, it might even challenge Day Watch as the largest opening of all-time ($9m). Well it's hard to say, Day Watch (I have great doubts about its official box-office, although I saw the huge lines at the theater) was released on holidays and had huge marketing campaign with the help of major TV channel showing its trailers every 15-20 minutes. The Da Vinci Code has none of these advantages (I haven't seen the trailers on TV), its grosses will be based generally on extremely high anticipations and awareness I think. And don't forget about bootleggers.
Well, recently Ice Age 2 was quite huge for a foreign film in Russia. Was it advertised well?
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Mon May 15, 2006 10:30 am |
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