Spider-Man did not have POTC2 in its second weekend, a movie that will open to $100+ million.

Speaking of buzz, it now has dropped to 13 in movies.

I'm thinking...

If it's respectable and generally good, like BB: 63/165

If it's bad or just average, which I think looks likely right now: 60/130 or less. Basically, the Hulk 2.

what you need todo is take the 1 in thosenumbers and turn it into a 2. i can see 190-215 if its aweful, but 130? sorry...nope.

the lowest i can see is

25, 27, 23, 16, 14, 11, 9

thats a 125 million opening week, which i can see at most beging 50% of the gross. that outs itrs total at 250.

Seeing you this July is gonna be something.

I don't see a multiplier being as low as 2.4x, but not as high as 3.4x. Around 2.8-3.0x seems reasonable considering the holiday week after its opening weekend. It has too much competiton to get much higher than 3.0x.

BTW, it is certain to drop on Sat.

$125 x 3.3 = 412m heyyyyyyy

That doesn't make any sense. How will the holiday help?

It might only drop 5%, but it will drop.

I realize that now. In my defense, I did say it'll be refined later. But since you asked...

65/185

Anything over $80 million opening weekend and $300 million total is unrealistic. This is not the film of the year.

I consider $200 million to be big for this film, so if it reaches that, I'd consider that solid. However, financially, it won't make profit from the domestic gross alone. WB needs to be a little more careful with their production budgets sooon.

Superman does need to be THE film of the year to get an $80 million opening and $300 million total. As it is, it's a distant 4th or 5th, behind Da Vinci Code, X3, and Pirates 2, at least. I'm just not feeling any buzz from it, besides the loonies here. Most people I know don't even know there's a new Superman film coming out, nor do they care. It should still do well - I don't think it will flop - but I think a lot of you expecting this to be another Spider-Man are in for some disappointment. It should do comparably to Batman Begins - not that there's anything wrong with that.

^lol the film of the year to get 80?no i dont think so.

WOTW had Spielberg's name. And a killer trailer. And no competition. Supes has Pirates a week after it opens. That won't affect the opening, but it'll sure as hell kill the legs.

Superman just doesn't have the buzz for a huge opening.

War of the Worlds was one of THE three movies of the year (Harry Potter, ROTS and War of the Worlds). It had Spielberg, Cruise...

At this point anything above $200 million total would already be great for Superman. It needs an opening of at least $75 million to make it there, though.

lecter i dont it...you and several others on this site are the only people I know who dont see superman as big.

its not even worth explaining, but most others and almost all of the press, see superman as one of the biggest 3 of this year-da vinci, superman, and pirates 2.

sorry, i know you dont see it like that at all,but thats how it is. and if bkb or zing or anyone else comes in here andsays othewise do not listen to them, because while they might be making their own and possibly accurate predictions, at least in the publics mind, superman is one of the biggest movies of the year.

like magnus im tried of defending this movie. some people are too damn stubburn.

im sorry you dont look at like that, but in EVERY summer preview superman has been front and center.

Hahaha.

We're stubborn? That's funny.

But, anyways, Mission: Impossible III was considered to be a top five of the summer contender in all those "summer previews" you mention, yet it won't be able to pull that off. Just because some people expect something doesn't mean it'll happen. It's a prediction. Like, for example, your Poseidon prediction? Even up until Friday, you still expected $35+ million opening weekend, despite ALL signs pointing to an opening weekend much less than that. You were too stubborn and biased to accept it. Sorry, but that's pretty much the truth.

^no, i know what your saying.

im just saying that if lecter doesnt think superman is considered one of the summers biggest filmsd, he obviously doesnt know enough about the movie.

poseidon i had breaking out due to mi3s dissapointment.

but even then, i wouldnt say Im stubburn, ive been lowering my prediction as more stuff happens. stubburn would be rev, sorry. but even then there are 2 kinds of stubburn here-bkb stubburn, and revulutions stubburn. im more on revulutions side while lecters more like bkb.

Well, yeah, that's true. But, Lecter did say that if it crossed $200 million, it would be considered great. But, he's arguing that it's not one of the top three of the summer, which belongs to Cars, Pirates of the Caribbean and The Da Vinci Code.

It is a big summer film, but there are a few that should outgross it.

excel: I am one of the people who believes SR will do well. I have nothing to back it up other than the Superman name and Bryan Singer. It could become the number one movie of the year if everything goes exceedingly well. It may not even make the top 5 if it is not very good. At this point there are way too many unknowns with Brandon Routh, ordinary trailer (I liked it though) and the buzz is on the low side.

Considering Batman Begins, an excellent movie made $205M, it is not unrealistic for Dr. Lecter to say $200M would be great for SR.

^thats what im disagreeing about zing.

substitute cars with superman, and youv got the publics vision of this summers big 3.

imo it should cars superman and pirates as all 3 i see breaking 250 million while i dont see da vinci doing that. cars will do numbers similar to incredibles, superman will be numbers very similar to matric reloaded, and pirates willdo numbers very similar to sith.

the thing is-not enough people know about cars or superman at this point to be able to properly judge their buzz. da vinci opens in 5 days so we kinda have a good idea whatll happen, and pirates well, thats self explainable.

superman awareness is decent at this point, trailers with mi3 poseidon and potter as well of hundereds of magazine articles and covers. cars i have no idea about its awareness, though.

it is unrealistic due to the circustances. batman didnt have the fourth of july release date superman has. batman had batman & robin just 8 years. superman has superman 4 20 years ago. HUGE difference. also, batman just doesnt have near the appeal superman does to kids, families, ect. Also batman had a horribly marketing plan. atleast withthe plan on paper, we know supermans is faaaar better.

I agree Superman Returns will be lot more kid friendly than Batman Begins. But what about the quality? If SR is even close to X2 or BB quality, the movie will kick ass. What happens if it is of F4 quality?

then it sucks and totals between 225-240 and about 525 ww. but bryan singers diecting it, so i have faith for now until i see it. the glowing film review from aint it cool a few weeeks ago made more confident inits quality.