Final:

Poseidon - $26.2 million
Just My Luck - $10.0 million

WSEX lines for Poseidon has now dropped to $20 million.

If anyone here is really confident that Poseidon will gross over $20 million this weekend, then this would be a really good bet as it gives you back 1.5x the amount you bet. (You can turn $100 into $250)

I remember when they set North Country's line at $6m, it seemed to be very much a riskless bet, but it barely beat that number. Nothing is a sure thing.

The above is from Variety as reported on HSX.

HSX

All I can say is Yikes.

dolce's bet is looking good.

Well, since Poseidon is apparently going to bellyflop this weekend, I think Da Vinci Code and X-Men are going to explode in the next two weeks.

Frankly, I think Poseidon looks decent for a disaster flick, but I really hope it will underperform, so it won't hit M:I-3 too hard.

Amen.

The huge MI3 fans saw it this past weekend, and while it seems to be a good movie, its been getting alot of negative publicity, thus I see a 55% drop, and what could be a drop under $20 m.

Looking at past years, because the holdovers fell hard on the summer start, it should mean really soft falls this week.

Akeelah and Sentinel are the only ones that will fall 45%+ I'm thinking, due to their theatre cuts.

Right on...Couldn't have said it better myself!

Bleh. Such a weak weekend. The top ten films won't even total to $90 million, probably.

For that reason, and a few other factors, now I again see Just My Luck will get double-digit gross. I think we'll see some sellouts for it tomorrow night. Could be another Stick It.

Yep, JML is doing well on moviefone now. I have it at about 10.5 mil in my early base predicts, Poseidon still at about 23 flat.

Goal! reminds me of Bobby Jones: Stroke of Genius for some odd reason. Low theater count, non-existant marketing, not a single ounce of buzz, etc. The PTA could end up around $1,000.

That's a very good comparison. Goal! even lacks some of things Bobby Jones had: James Caviezel at least still had some name recognition two months after Passion. Soccer audience is also younger than golf's, and that's not a good thing this weekend going against Poseidon and M:I3.

[table][row color=#FF0000][col color=#FF0000]Movie[col color=#FF0000]Prediction[col color=#FF0000]% Change[row color=#FFFF99]#1[col color=#FFFF99]Mission: Impossible III[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 21.5 million[col color=#FFFF99]-55.0%[row color=#FFFF99]#2[col color=#FFFF99]Poseidon[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 19.0 million[col color=#FFFF99]NEW[row color=#FFFF99]#3[col color=#FFFF99]Just My Luck[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 9.2 million[col color=#FFFF99]NEW[row color=#FFFF99]#4[col color=#FFFF99]RV[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 7.2 million[col color=#FFFF99]-34.6%[row color=#FFFF99]#5[col color=#FFFF99]United 93[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 2.9 million[col color=#FFFF99]-45.8%[row color=#FFFF99]#6[col color=#FFFF99]Ice Age: The Meltdown[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 2.9 million[col color=#FFFF99]-30.3%[row color=#FFFF99]#7[col color=#FFFF99]Stick It[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 2.8 million[col color=#FFFF99]-48.9%[row color=#FFFF99]#8[col color=#FFFF99]An American Haunting[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 2.3 million[col color=#FFFF99]-60.2%[row color=#FFFF99]#9[col color=#FFFF99]Goal[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 2.2 million[col color=#FFFF99]NEW[row color=#FFFF99]#10[col color=#FFFF99]Akeelah and the Bee[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 2.2 million[col color=#FFFF99]-34.7%[row color=#FFFF99]#11[col color=#FFFF99]Scary Movie 4[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 2.0 million[col color=#FFFF99]-45.8%[row color=#FFFF99]#12[col color=#FFFF99]Silent Hill[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 1.8 million[col color=#FFFF99]-55.1%[row color=#FFFF99]#13[col color=#FFFF99]Hoot[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 1.7 million[col color=#FFFF99]-49.4%[row color=#FFFF99]#14[col color=#FFFF99]The Sentinel[col color=#CCFFFF]$ 1.5 million[col color=#FFFF99]-51.4%[/table]This table brought to you by Excel2BB Converter. Created by Krem for World of KJ

Goal tracking at $8 million some weeks ago just doesn't seem right to just bomb under $1 million. Soccer is a way more popular movie sport, and the trailer was actually good, didn't seem boring. Poseidon seems like a "disaster" film wannabe that people could care less about as it doesn't affect them. Kinda of like Flight of the Phoenix, similar cast kind of.

EDIT: Changed Akeelah to $1.3 million. Missed the 1000 theater count loss for some reason....

MG, you think Akeelah is going to get a bigger pta than last weekend.

Uhh... no? Did it have a huge theater loss or something? *comes back* Oh wow. How did I miss it losing 1000 theaters?? THanks Scott for the alert.

Final predictions
1. Mission: Impossible III - 22.4(-53%)
2. Poseidon - 21.3 million($6000 PTA)
3. Just My Luck - 10.4 million($4100 PTA)
4. RV - 6.7(-39%)
5. Stick It - 3.5(-36%)
6. United 93 - 3.3(-39%)
7. Ice Age 2 - 2.5(-39%)
8. An American Haunting - 2.5(-56%)
9. Hoot - 2.0(-40%)
10. Silent Hill - 1.9(-53%)
11. Akeelah and the Bee - 1.5(-55%)
12. The Sentinel - 1.2(-62%)
13. Goal! The Dream Begins - 0.9 million($900 PTA)

Poseidon could go lower though. Tonight I was watching Survivor with my friends, Poseidon ad comes on, the first words from one of them after a few words of silence were "...That movie looks like crap." And this is normally right up their alley, the one who said it actually owns The Perfect Storm himself.

A lot of the slightly older holdovers will have nice than normal drops, thanks to what happened last week. United 93 and Stick It especially will recover.

Goal! should bomb. No doubt about it.

Akeelah and The Sentinel, I had to use PTAs to calculate them out instead of attempting with the %s. They're kind've hard to nail, so I tried to find a safe middle ground for them.

As for the rest, pretty average.

And the derby average will be awful this weekend. Poseidon, Goal!, Akeelah, Sentinel, all will murder it. This could be one of the lowest in recent memory.

hmmmm...i think Just My Luck is beeing somewhat underpredicted

Final Predictions
1. Poseidon - $23.1 million ($6,500 PTA)
2. Mission: Impossible 3 - $22.9 million (-52%)
3. Just My Luck - $10.2 million ($4,000 PTA)
4. R.V. - $7.7 million (-30%)
5. Stick It - $3.3 million (-40%)
6. United 93 - $2.8 million (-47%)
7. An American Haunting - $2.6 million (-55%)
8. Ice Age: The Meltdown - $2.6 million (-38%)
9. Silent Hill - $2 million (-50%)
10. Akeelah and the Bee - $1.5 million (-55%)
11. The Sentinel - $1.1 million (-65%)
12. Goal! The Dream Begins - $1 million ($1,000 PTA)

Interestingly, I have both Poseidon and MI3 at $23 million. Tough to say which will take the weekend. It should be close.

Like Shack, I had to resort to PTAs to figure out Akeelah and Sentinel. They're both in for huge drops.

Just My Luck should do decent, but Goal will do horribly. I've heard nor seen nothing of it.

Rest are fairly normal.

The derby will be a killer this weekend. Just look at the averages so far:
Poseidon - $38.2
Goal! - $3.9
American Haunting - $3.5
Akeelah - $2.1
Sentinel - $1.8

Those five alone will kill the average. Look for a lot of KJers to be near the top. Unless, of course, Poseidon surprises; then we're all screwed.

As a film loses theaters, its PTA stablizes somewhat accordingly, so I'm not sure Sentinel or Bee is destined for a 60% drop.

My Derby Predictions.

Poseidon - 27.0m
MI3 - 23.0 (-52%)
Just My Luck - 14.1m
RV - 7.4m (-33%)
United 93 - 3.0m (-44%)
Stick It - 2.8m (-49%)
Amercian Haunting - 2.8m (-52%)
Akeelah and the Bee - 1.6m (-53%)
The Sentinel - 1.4m (-55%)
Goal - 0.9m

My reason.
Since Poseidon can go anywhere between 20 and 40, I decided to go in the middle (in terms of score opportunities) so that I can score at least a 65% on this (smart, isn't it).
MI3 will have the normal drop for this type of film.
Just My Luck will surprize here, the concept alone will bring in the tweens. I mean, if Stick It can get 11 million, then this should do about the same (pta wise that is). On par with Cinderella Story.
RV will have no direct competition till Over the Hedge.
United 93 will stablize a bit, thanks to the increase in theaters.
Stick It will get hit a bit by Just My Luck.
American Haunting will have a drop similar to Emily Rose.
Akeelah and the Bee and Sentinel will suffer thanks the theater drops, but the pta's should drop about 10-20%. I went up a notch on Akeelah because Sunday (Mothers Day) will help it a bit.
Goal will be like Bobby Jones, nuff said.

What do you think.

MI3 20.9 - T3ish drop.
pos 19.1 - I don't think it can even reach 25m now. It hasn't been able to increase like normal on the Yahoo Buzz Index. Tracking has gotten worse. Marketing has been less effective over the past week IMO. I think WB is desperate, and know they have a bomb. Could be 15m IMO.
luck 7.8 - I had more confidence until I saw a few ads over the past few days. The concept is good, but it reminds me of Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen. I think tracking is right.
RV 7.1
U93 3.4 - Legs are improving.
AH 2.7 - Normal horror drop.
Stick It 2.7
Bee 1.6
Sentinel 1.2
Goal 0.7 - Who really knows, but I don't see a single positive for this movie.

Final Predictions
1. Poseidon - $24.8 million (NEW)
2. Mission: Impossible III - $23.9 million (-50%)
3. Just My Luck - $10.6 million (NEW)
4. RV - $7.2 million (-34%)
5. Stick It - $3.0 million (-45%)
6. United 93 - $2.8 million (-48%)
7. An American Haunting - $2.7 million (-54%)
8. Akeelah and the Bee - $1.7 million (-50%)
9. The Sentinel - $1.4 million (-49%)
10. Goal! The Dream Begins - $1.0 million (NEW)