Any Monday drop bigger than Van Helsing is pretty bad especially considering the comparable reviews/word-of-mouth...Van Helsing had nothing good said about it, while at least some people are enjoying MI3. I think all the negative media spin has not been good for it... I do notice that they started the "campaign for women" this week with Michelle Monaghan on morning talk shows and a more "romance driven" clip being shown. Not sure if that really will work if Cruise really has turned off his female audience. I think it'll have a 50% drop-off, too, but I don't think it will be #1 this weekend either.

Just My Luck is on Moviefone. I think it looks good for a $4,000 PTA this weekend.

I don't think a 3% difference between M:I-3 and Van Helsing on Monday is anything to be concerned about. Van Helsing dropped 18% on Tuesday after that "nice" Monday hold, while M:I-3 dropped 9%. That's a big difference.

True but that's a 9% drop compared to a lot lighter drops even for things like Silent Hill (movies usually shouldn't drop at all on Tuesdays if they're going to sustain business). I think that all the negative press the movie and Tom are getting after that lighter opening weekend is hurting and doing more damage than any good WOM/reviews might. It's a shame since it's a much better movie than the last one.

Final Predictions

Poseidon: $42.6 Million (will do decent B.O., if only by default in the wake of MI:3's soft open)
Just My Luck: $12.2 Million (I'm tired of Lohan, but she still has a decent following for a $10M+ open)
Goal! The Dream Begins: $2.4 Million (apparently this even bombed in Europe, where soccer is huge)

I cant see a logical reaasoning why people think that if MI3 bombed that Poseidon will pick up the slack or vice versa either.

This happened last year with The Island & Stealth too. After The Island bombed, people thought Stealth would do better, for some reason. And it bombed as well. The same thing will happen here, but not to that extreme extent. MI3 didn't bomb, it just disappointed, and I think Poseidon will do the same. No more than $30 million for it this weekend.

The difference is that Stealth was pretty much laughed at and had virtually no buzz. People are talking about Poseidon, even if it's not going to be a powerhouse.

I'm not saying Posideion's gonna be a Stealth-like bomb. I'm saying that it's not gonna "pick up the slack" from MI3. It won't clear $40 million. You can count on that.

I always thought that Poseidon would bomb no matter how good or bad MI3 did. The Island & Stealth relation makes more sense because they both fall under the same vehicular macho action film formula. MI3 and Poseidon doesnt share any of the same quality from each other. One is an action flick starring a monobrowed hobbit while the other flick is about the Poseidon god punishing passengers on board a ship for overindulgence

I don't mind people predicting that Poseidon will bomb, but could you guys at least pick relevant comparisons? Other disaster movies, not star driven action genre like Stealth and The Island.

To me, the best comparison remains The Perfect Storm, and that certainly didn't bomb despite having very little buzz before it opened.

I wasn't comparing Poseidon to those films, per se, just the situation where people think that because MI3 disappointed, Posiedon will pick up the slack. I was just relating it to what happened last year with The Island and Stealth.

Poseidon still has a score of less than 10 on the Yahoo Buzz Chart.

The reason I don't think it'll do that great, is simply because it has little buzz, and from the people I've talked to, it appears that noone cares about this movie whatsoever. Marketing has been crappy, there's no draws, tracking is low, and MI:3 just proved people are sick of this type of film.

But with that being said, 23 mil or so isn't that bad. The Island and Stealth were much worse.

It is if your production budget is $150 Million.

I think $30M opening is a safe bet...but I've also been burned sometimes, underestimating F/X disaster extravaganzas like this. I can still remember when DEEP IMPACT's opening took everybody by surprise. I wouldn't be surprised to see a $40M+ opening...but I'm still erring on the side of caution.

ALl I know is that almost everyone I know has mentioned wanting to see Poseidon and I'm sure that the amount of appearances of the stars on TV shows over the last week (with great clips) won't hurt either. I doubt it will open over $40 million, too, but I don't think it will be another $15-20 million disappointment ala Stealth/Island, etc. THere just isn't that kind of negative buzz going into it.

I actually have a decent feeling about Poseidon this weekend. I had a really bad feeling about Stealth and The Island shortly before those came out, but I see no reason why this can't do $25-30M, at the least.

In fact, both The Island and Stealth opened below $15m ($12.4m and $13.2m).

I don't see Poseidon failing that big either. The all around buzz is quite a bit better than those two, but it doesn't mean the film will overachieve against expectation much. The BOM "When will you see <film>?" poll in fact shows similar numbers between The Island and Poseidon. Kingdom of Heaven had even better number and could only generate a $19m opening. I'm not going to depend my prediction on a single unscientific poll, especially since the other signs are fine, but I don't feel people are quite enthusiastic about the film yet. Still a mid-20m range.

Box Office Guru:
Poseidon 31 million
M:i:III 24 million
Just My Luck 11 million
Goal! 4 million

Box Office Report:
Poseidon 35 million
M:i:II 25 million
Just My Luck 12 million
Goal! 3 million

They're much too high on Goal. It'll be lucky to get $2 million this weekend.

Actually, they're too high on everything.

What is with all of the weird selections for the derby this week? I ended up with 3 predictions under 2 million, and 6 that were under 3 million.

I predicted that Goal movie to open up at 1.2 million. I have seen NOTHING whatsoever for that movie.

WSEX Lines for Poseidon:

Over $22.5 (pays $30 for a $20 bet)
Under $22.5 (pays $10 for a $20 bet)

Fifteen minutes ago the line was at $25, so their prediction could go even lower later by the end of the night.

Wow, the money must really have been coming in on under.

I'm not sure it will hit 20m this weekend.

WSEX has been pretty good in underachievers in the past, ever since I started pay attention when they nailed XXX2.