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 The Da Vinci Code prediction thread 

Do I have way to high of expectations for DVC
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 The Da Vinci Code prediction thread 
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Extraordinary

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1DA VINCI CODE GROSS0-35 $US MIL+2500
2DA VINCI CODE GROSS 35.1-55 $US MIL+1600
3DA VINCI CODE GROSS 55.1-75 $US MIL+500
4DA VINCI CODE GROSS 75.1-95 $US MIL+300
5DA VINCI CODE GROSS 95.1-105 $US MIL+225
6DA VINCI CODE GROSS 105.1-115 $US MIL+200
7DA VINCI CODE GROSS 115.1-120 $US MIL+200
8DA VINCI CODE GROSS MORE THAN 120.1 $US MIL+400


Wed May 10, 2006 11:15 pm
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Superfreak
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ok you guys, reality check.

in order to not be dissapointed AGAIN do not buy into this online hype. a weekend north of 70 million will be very optimistic due to compitition and lack of appeal aomng kids and most teens.

lets not have another MI3. 100 million aint happening. hell, 80 million aint happening. this will be a big blockbuster but the bottom line is there is not enough appeal to cross anything over 250 million, i think.

but ya know i dont feel like reading "da vinci bombs" or something if it opens to only 60-65 million cause people expected 80-100 million...cause frankly thats not happening. itd be very,very hard for it to happen;its possible, but i dont see it. not at this point. the ads make it look like a thrilller, not a summer blockbuser needed to make enormous buizz to get 100 million +.


Wed May 10, 2006 11:37 pm
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Begging Naked
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excel wrote:
ok you guys, reality check.

in order to not be dissapointed AGAIN do not buy into this online hype. a weekend north of 70 million will be very optimistic due to compitition and lack of appeal aomng kids and most teens.


Uh, what competition? Poseidon is setting itself up for dissapointment and MI3 isn't doing too hot right now. And I'm sure teens will see it as it's one of the hottest movies of the summer.

A $100M opening is very unlikely, but not impossible.


Wed May 10, 2006 11:57 pm
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College Boy Z

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Besides BJ and DP07, there are very few that are saying it'll make $100 million opening weekend. If it didn't, and it "only" made $60-70 million, that'd still be great.


Thu May 11, 2006 5:57 am
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I am currently pegging the opening at around $65 million which is still very good for this type of a film. It will pass $200 million.

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Thu May 11, 2006 6:29 am
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College Boy Z

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Interesting that The Da Vinci Code is at $80 million for the movie options at HSX.


Thu May 11, 2006 6:30 am
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It will be #4 for the summer (behind X3, POTC2 and Cars).

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Thu May 11, 2006 6:37 am
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Magnus101 wrote:
I actually think a 100m opening would be near impossible because I don't think it can get the amount of screens/theaters to do it.


I agree, which is why I even think that many of the $80M predictions seem unlikely. IMO, we are dealing with two components here - the desire to see it, and the desire to see it right away. Despite the book's popularity/controversy, I don't see why this film will be unlike any of Hanks's past films - strong (but not massive) OW and solid legs.

As an aside, I'm sorry about your difficulties over at BOM, but I'm sure glad you'll be posting here more often. :shades:


Thu May 11, 2006 8:16 am
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Magnus101 wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
It will be #4 for the summer (behind X3, POTC2 and Cars).


And SR.


Nah, it will easily outdo Superman.

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Thu May 11, 2006 10:35 am
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Dont Mess with the Gez
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Im pegging my opening weekend for DVC at $79m. Though I have a feeling it will go higher.

Actually, I will go out on the limb and predict $86m.

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Thu May 11, 2006 10:55 am
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College Boy Z

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Theater count estimate is 3,700+. Assuming it gets around 3,800 next weekend...

Opening Weekend: $67 million ($17,500 PTA)
Domestic Total: $235 million


Thu May 11, 2006 6:44 pm
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Superfreak
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
Magnus101 wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
It will be #4 for the summer (behind X3, POTC2 and Cars).


And SR.


Nah, it will easily outdo Superman.



no it wont.

and there is a lot of compitition. it opens a week befor hype machine XMEN 3 and opens against a fellow 40 million opener in over the hedge.

and i dont see anything over 75 million. im stiking to 63. it just does not appeal to enough people.


Thu May 11, 2006 7:08 pm
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Extraordinary

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While people debate how this film will do, you can't deny how huge the tracking on this film is. This has gotten daily headlines for most of this year so far, and awareness is incredibly high.


Thu May 11, 2006 7:30 pm
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Zingaling wrote:
Besides BJ and DP07, there are very few that are saying it'll make $100 million opening weekend. If it didn't, and it "only" made $60-70 million, that'd still be great.


But that's impossible.


Fri May 12, 2006 3:07 am
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I'll tell you this as well. The world is screaming for this film. This is about as anti-bible and anti- Catholic as you can get. And there are a lot of people in this world that don't like organized religion, namely the Catholic churhc and the power that it wields. The DVC is really the first film of its kind. The kind of film that has the Catholic church not only demanding that the film be pulled, but they are doing their spin doctoring by putting otu these ostenibly non-partisan specials on TV that denounce the DVC as poppycock. This has done nothing but given the film free publicity. With so much apathy and even moreso, so much anger towards religion, this film will have a built in audience in teh same way that SW or LOTR does. People will come out in droves to see the film and it will have great legs also.

OW 70 mill ( only because of the running time)
Total- 275
650 WW

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Fri May 12, 2006 11:56 am
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baumer72 wrote:
OW 70 mill ( only because of the running time)


Its only 8 minutes longer then Revenge of the Sith and 5 minutes shorter then HP1 and HP4. It can't make THAT much of a difference.


Fri May 12, 2006 12:04 pm
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Just got the word that the movie is coming to my town on opening night, next Friday. We only get 2 movies playing a week, so usually it takes 3-4 weeks for them to get here. The only ones to ever come opening night are the uber blockbusters: Star Wars Epi. III, Shrek 2, Spider-man...

And tieing in with this, my dad was the one that told that to me, and my friends mentioned it again later. The buzz coming for this movie is off the charts.

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Fri May 12, 2006 12:25 pm
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With two disappointing "summer" weekends in a row (this one could even be embarassing), I bet folks are even more antsy for a quality film. I'm now giving serious thought to a possible $20,000 PTA for DVC next week, though I'm going to hold off on upping my prediction again until we see Monday's tracking.


Fri May 12, 2006 3:03 pm
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baumer72 wrote:
I'll tell you this as well. The world is screaming for this film. This is about as anti-bible and anti- Catholic as you can get. And there are a lot of people in this world that don't like organized religion, namely the Catholic churhc and the power that it wields. The DVC is really the first film of its kind. The kind of film that has the Catholic church not only demanding that the film be pulled, but they are doing their spin doctoring by putting otu these ostenibly non-partisan specials on TV that denounce the DVC as poppycock. This has done nothing but given the film free publicity. With so much apathy and even moreso, so much anger towards religion, this film will have a built in audience in teh same way that SW or LOTR does. People will come out in droves to see the film and it will have great legs also.

OW 70 mill ( only because of the running time)
Total- 275
650 WW


:clap:

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Fri May 12, 2006 4:53 pm
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The international gross will be $400+ million, I'm pretty sure of that.

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Fri May 12, 2006 7:41 pm
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The newest trailers/TV spots are showing more stuff to really excite me, yet is still keeping a tight lid. I'm still iffy about Ron Howard, but I have to admit that the film is actually.... looking... good. Man, I'm torn. I've sorta been badmouthing this film, but now it just looks too good to miss.

In any event, the marketing has been brilliant, the exposure is HUGE, and the tracking is HUGE. I see at least a $70 million opening now, and only weeks ago I was thinking a below $50 million opening. There is just too much to ignore now.

PEACE, Mike.


Fri May 12, 2006 7:46 pm
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Ron Howard/Tom Hanks are a great time IMO.

I've been saying ever since the project hit paper that it would be the biggest movie of its year of release. I still believe that.

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Fri May 12, 2006 8:19 pm
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Felicity Titwank wrote:
Ron Howard/Tom Hanks are a great time IMO.


Does Hanks spoon?


Fri May 12, 2006 8:20 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
The international gross will be $400+ million, I'm pretty sure of that.


Im thinking $500m+ is doable. $800m total WW.

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Fri May 12, 2006 10:33 pm
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MadGez wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
The international gross will be $400+ million, I'm pretty sure of that.


Im thinking $500m+ is doable. $800m total WW.


I don't think that because it won't be big in Asian markets.

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Sat May 13, 2006 8:45 am
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