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 May 12-14 predictions 
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Extraordinary

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
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The Da Vinci Code is on moviefone. If it can stay there all the way to next week, it will be rather impressive considering its adult audience.

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Tue May 09, 2006 12:03 pm
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Early Predictions:

Poseidon: $42M
Just My Luck: $13M

I'm going against the tracking on Poseidon - I wouldn't be surprised with Twister-like numbers.


Tue May 09, 2006 3:12 pm
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Extraordinary

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Some insider information on screen allocation from Lee: http://www.leesmovieinfo.net/Article.php?a=907.

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Tue May 09, 2006 8:00 pm
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xiayun wrote:
Some insider information on screen allocation from Lee: http://www.leesmovieinfo.net/Article.php?a=907.


A few other films have played their movies in two Mann Westwood theaters (Spiderman, Planet of the Apes, etc). I think it is logical that it is playing in both the National and the Bruin since they seat 900 each, while the biggest one, the Village (where MI3 is playing) seats 1200. The other one, the Festival seats only 600, along with the closed Plaza, and the Regent (formally Mann, now owned by Landmark).

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Tue May 09, 2006 8:27 pm
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What the hell? See No Evil is Number 1 on moviefone


Wed May 10, 2006 2:52 pm
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Oompa Loompa Midget Man wrote:
What the hell? See No Evil is Number 1 on moviefone


I find Movefone about as helpful as my magic 8 ball I got for Christmas in 1992.


Wed May 10, 2006 3:05 pm
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Indiana Jones IV

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Rolling Thunder wrote:
Oompa Loompa Midget Man wrote:
What the hell? See No Evil is Number 1 on moviefone


I find Movefone about as helpful as my magic 8 ball I got for Christmas in 1992.


I've been saying that for a while, when will people learn.... :disgust:

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Wed May 10, 2006 3:08 pm
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College Boy Z

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If people knew how to use it, Moviefone can be quite useful.


Wed May 10, 2006 4:51 pm
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Zingaling wrote:
If people knew how to use it, Moviefone can be quite useful.


Um I didnt say anything about See No Evil's BO. You just assumed so by my reaction. I just thought it would of been a total bomb but it doesnt quite look like that from RS tracking and moviefone.


Wed May 10, 2006 5:02 pm
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College Boy Z

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...and I wasn't referring to you?

I was referring to the two people after you who think it's useless.


Wed May 10, 2006 5:18 pm
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Zingaling wrote:
...and I wasn't referring to you?

I was referring to the two people after you who think it's useless.


:oops:


Wed May 10, 2006 5:21 pm
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Lee's Early weekend Predictions

1 Mission Impossible 3 $23.7 -50% 4054
2 Poseidon $23.5 NEW 3650
3 RV $6.5 -41% 3350
4 Just My Luck $5.6 NEW 2550
5 An American Haunting $3.3 -48% 1667

Link

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Wed May 10, 2006 5:52 pm
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Extraordinary

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5.6m for Just My Luck is pushing the limit, but I now do agree that it will disappoint against my original prediction of $13-15m. Lohan's fanbase tends to generate a large Yahoo ratio, but the film is not showing up anywhere there (trailer chart, most requested, buzz chart). It's worrisome. The reviews are terrible too, with one review conveniently saying watching it will be the unluckiest thing you do that day.

Also for the past three weeks at least, when MTC's tracking is lower than RS', the actual gross has always been even lower than MTC's; when MTC is higher, the actual gross is also higher. Just an interesting observation.

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Wed May 10, 2006 6:00 pm
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The Thirteenth Floor
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xiayun wrote:
5.6m for Just My Luck is pushing the limit, but I now do agree that it will disappoint against my original prediction of $13-15m. Lohan's fanbase tends to generate a large Yahoo ratio, but the film is not showing up anywhere there (trailer chart, most requested, buzz chart). It's worrisome. The reviews are terrible too, with one review conveniently saying watching it will be the unluckiest thing you do that day.

Also for the past three weeks at least, when MTC's tracking is lower than RS', the actual gross has always been even lower than MTC's; when MTC is higher, the actual gross is also higher. Just an interesting observation.


I've noticed that too, but there was Big Momma's House 2.


Wed May 10, 2006 6:24 pm
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Yeah, I'll admit Just My Luck will likely do kind've bad now. I think there's some serious Lohan backlash, her rat phase has brought her popularity down a lot. It's too bad, I thought the movie looked fun.

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Wed May 10, 2006 6:46 pm
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Waitress in LA

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1. Poseidon - $27.5m (new)
2. Mission: Impossible III - 24.4m (-48%)
3. Just My Luck - 12.0m (new)


Wed May 10, 2006 8:26 pm
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Extraordinary

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Variety article (thanx to notfabio once again):

Quote:
Tentpoles to the test

Day-and-date code hard to crack

By DAVE MCNARY, ARCHIE THOMAS


In its first five days "Mission" has remained less than blockbuster status domestically, reaching $54.4 million in its first five days, while flexing much more muscle in foreign markets -- with an $83.1 million overseas cume so far.

"Mission's" weekday domestic grosses -- a 72% drop from Sunday to $3.5 million on Monday, then $3.2 million on Tuesday -- are not far out of line for summer titles released in May.

While the first weekend in May has become the established starting line for Hollywood's summer season, most kids are still in school and fewer adults are on vacation than in the heart of the season between Memorial Day and Labor Day.

Rob Moore, Par prexy of marketing, distribution and operations, told Daily Variety that the weekday perfs were in line with studio expectations. He cited historical performance by similar pics in the same time frame and predicted that "MI3" will show significant traction in coming weeks.

"At this point, we're optimistic about how we are doing going into the second weekend," Moore added. "And we're looking particularly strong in overseas markets since there's so little competition."

"MI3" will face off Friday with Warner's "Poseidon" domestically, with rival distribs expecting "MI3" to prevail. "Poseidon" is moored mostly in drydock in foreign markets, opening only in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.

"MI3" added $13 million overseas on Monday and Tuesday with the best cumes so far coming from South Korea ($12.2 million), the U.K. ($11.4 million), France ($7.6 million) and Spain ($4 million). Australia, Russia and Italy all have $3.6 million each, outdistancing what's been a disappointing run so far in Germany at $3.4 million.

Weak weekdays in early May is one of the reasons that studios sked pics that are going to do a lot of family biz -- like DreamWorks "Over the Hedge" and Pixar's "Cars" -- later in the summer.

"Mission's" Sunday-to-Monday domestic drop was 72%, but that's not much different from other titles released in early May.

Last year, for example, 20th Century Fox's "Kingdom of Heaven" saw grosses fall 67% on its first Monday. In 2004, Universal's "Van Helsing," which was also launched the first weekend of the month, saw ticket sales drop 69% on its first weekday, from a $12.6 million Sunday to a $3.9 million Monday.

Even "Spider-Man" saw a big drop-off on Monday four years ago, although it still grossed $11 million that day.

Read the full article at:
http://www.variety.com/story.asp?l=stor ... 42944&c=13

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Wed May 10, 2006 9:24 pm
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College Boy Z

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People are making a big deal over nothing about that 71% Monday drop.


Wed May 10, 2006 10:06 pm
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Iron Man

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Any Monday drop bigger than Van Helsing is pretty bad especially considering the comparable reviews/word-of-mouth...Van Helsing had nothing good said about it, while at least some people are enjoying MI3. I think all the negative media spin has not been good for it... I do notice that they started the "campaign for women" this week with Michelle Monaghan on morning talk shows and a more "romance driven" clip being shown. Not sure if that really will work if Cruise really has turned off his female audience. I think it'll have a 50% drop-off, too, but I don't think it will be #1 this weekend either.

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Thu May 11, 2006 5:34 am
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College Boy Z

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Just My Luck is on Moviefone. I think it looks good for a $4,000 PTA this weekend.


Thu May 11, 2006 6:09 am
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College Boy Z

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misterglass wrote:
Any Monday drop bigger than Van Helsing is pretty bad especially considering the comparable reviews/word-of-mouth...Van Helsing had nothing good said about it, while at least some people are enjoying MI3. I think all the negative media spin has not been good for it... I do notice that they started the "campaign for women" this week with Michelle Monaghan on morning talk shows and a more "romance driven" clip being shown. Not sure if that really will work if Cruise really has turned off his female audience. I think it'll have a 50% drop-off, too, but I don't think it will be #1 this weekend either.


I don't think a 3% difference between M:I-3 and Van Helsing on Monday is anything to be concerned about. Van Helsing dropped 18% on Tuesday after that "nice" Monday hold, while M:I-3 dropped 9%. That's a big difference.


Thu May 11, 2006 6:12 am
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Iron Man

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True but that's a 9% drop compared to a lot lighter drops even for things like Silent Hill (movies usually shouldn't drop at all on Tuesdays if they're going to sustain business). I think that all the negative press the movie and Tom are getting after that lighter opening weekend is hurting and doing more damage than any good WOM/reviews might. It's a shame since it's a much better movie than the last one.

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Thu May 11, 2006 7:21 am
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Final Predictions

Poseidon: $42.6 Million (will do decent B.O., if only by default in the wake of MI:3's soft open)
Just My Luck: $12.2 Million (I'm tired of Lohan, but she still has a decent following for a $10M+ open)
Goal! The Dream Begins: $2.4 Million (apparently this even bombed in Europe, where soccer is huge)


Thu May 11, 2006 7:51 am
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I cant see a logical reaasoning why people think that if MI3 bombed that Poseidon will pick up the slack or vice versa either.


Thu May 11, 2006 12:02 pm
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Oompa Loompa Midget Man wrote:
I cant see a logical reaasoning why people think that if MI3 bombed that Poseidon will pick up the slack or vice versa either.

This happened last year with The Island & Stealth too. After The Island bombed, people thought Stealth would do better, for some reason. And it bombed as well. The same thing will happen here, but not to that extreme extent. MI3 didn't bomb, it just disappointed, and I think Poseidon will do the same. No more than $30 million for it this weekend.

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Thu May 11, 2006 1:46 pm
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