http://www.worldofkj.com/boxoffice/Prev ... seidon.php

Hopefully this one is less embarrasing than Mission: Impossible III.

$30+ million opening weekend is certainly possible. I said at the end that the highest it can go is $35 million opening weekend. It's still achievable, but when M:I-3 can't even get a $12,000 PTA, Poseidon getting a $10,000 PTA is odd.

Nice article, Zing.

I think the prediction looks very good.

Plus, the film doesn't have to overcome public backlash to a nutso star. I know it doesn't have much of a chance of happening, but I'd like to see it make more than M:I 3.

Zingy you are so right about the 25-26 million weekend.

I was thinking it wouldn't even muster more than a 6,000 pta, but that's just me. Could go as high as 8, but that's the most I see it doing. Early reviews are scathing, and that is going to have a serious effect on this movie. Unlike others the stars aren't that big, the anticipation and marketting and general buzz aren't high. I don't see interest. That could be overcome, but not with 20% approval amongst critics. Means the wom could sink in before the weekend is even up.

As it stands now (could change depending on reviews) I don't see this breaking 25 opening weekend. Good call.

How sure of that are you?

Dolce's on your side.

That CAN'T be good!

You know what? You guys can kiss my booty. You're all just jealous cause I knew MI3 wouldn't even reach 150 million, nay, 130 million dollars.

So there

Me and my theater manager are having a debate.

He thinks Posiden will top MI3's opening weekend. He is confident that it will be a 47+ opening weekend hit. I say it won't. Who do you think it will win the bet?

Personally I think it will be very close.

I think Poseidon will land High 30's to Low 40's.

I'm thinking 30million, but it may "surprise" like the Perfect Storm, so hmm....

dolce's on my side...

Heh. I loved the "Hoot will make $200 million" prediction.

Say what? http://www.metacritic.com/film/titles/poseidon They have the three reviews from major sources, and not one of them disliked it, let alone wrote a "scathing" review. Other then that Slant gave it a .5/4, but they can't really count for much considering they've given equally bad reviews to countless critically beloved films, most recently United 93. The biggest reason I could pick out for their hatred of the film was from accusations of it being racist. The only other review was a middling C from Emanuel Levy. It's not setting the world on fire, but the reviews are certainly better then the average blockbuster of it's ilk.

This isn't the kind of movie that reviews really affect, though, right? Most folks who go to see diaster flicks could care less how many holes the plot has or that the character development is weak. We just want to see something blow up!

I don't know about that, I think reviews being good could really help get older audiences in who have fond memories of the original or Kurt Russell.

Hey. In fairness i changed that predict seconds later. Especially after seeing the movie about a month ago. At that point, I said it would bomb easily, and I was right.

I do think reviews will mean something for this particular movie. Not all blockbusters, this is true, but the novelty of the sinking ship is no longer new. There have been several shipwreck movies since Titanic, including The Perfect Storm, and Storm gave us more of the giant water tank special effects. By now, with increased digital effects, no one's desire to see it is as strong. Plus the cast is not nearly the same. The other three guys didn't have quite as much draw as far as blockbuster figures, except maybe Marky Mark, but this time around everyone is really as has-been or an unknown, imo. The major names, not the supporting characters. When did Kurt of Emmy really fill in the seats?

Its not going to do well. I said that weeks ago, and I'm sticking to it now. The only debate in my mind is if it won't break 25, or if it won't break 30 million. Mostly because the theatre count is just so massive. That's it though.

Are you crazy Docle? There is no way this film opens with 25 mill. In fact, I think it will make closer to 60 OW than it will 30. This is Wolfgang doing what he does best. Do you remember when The Patriot and The Perfect storm came out in teh same weekend? And The Perfect Storm demolished it. That was before Clooney was a superstar and Mel was. Poseiden has all the earmarks of a film that will soar this weekend and i can see it doing about 55-60 this weekend with a clsoe of about 175-180. I'm not sure where you are getting your numbers from, but they are not the same places I'm getting mine. I guarantee this will do more than 40 this weekend. GUARANTEE!!

I don't see how this film opens below $30 mil. This is a disaster film opening in summer, I would think a $30 mil opening would be the minimum that could be expected.

The Weekend Warrior is looking for about a $37M open. I think that sounds reasonable.

Actually, Zing's analysis is consistent with the studio tracking article (Mentioned POS was tracking so poorly that WB had to buy lot more Ad Time).

There was a studio tracking article on M:I3 that mentioned that M:I3 was tracking a third behind M:I2. In fact that turned out to be right on.

Could this do a little better? Upper 20's to low 30s may be. People predicting $60M+ for this turkey should be locked up.

I can see it opening anywhere from $20-35 million easily. The prediction is more of a middle ground, but I even predicted on Sunday in the "May 12-14 Predictions" thread that it'll make above $30 million.

I agree. The signs are still very much mixed.

Looks good to me, even though I currently see it edging past $30 million in its opening. I see something around a $30-31 million opening now and a $85-90 million total.

Amen brotha'! Preach it!

All of you except jb and zingy are going to be so embarrassed come this time next week.

i dunno bout you but ive seen a lot of tv spots. i like coming soon's picks.

37/135.