Poseidon - 21.5 million($6000 PTA)
Just my Luck - 21.3 million.($7000 PTA)

Honestly, I might not go this extreme in my derby, but I think these numbers can easily happen.

Everyone is underpredicting Just my Luck by a lot. I've been seeing great reactions to the marketing, the concept is really good and appealing, and people still like Lindsey Lohan as long as she doesn't look like a rat. Theatre count should be 3000+, and it's officially summer, so it should do well enough to *almost* match Poseidon, of which will disappoint. If MI:3 can only get 45-50 mil, I expect Poseidon to land at low 20s. The buzz is just not there for a big opening, it should be the latest disappointment of the "shit-blowing-up" genre.

MI:3 with still be #1 with 23-25 mil.

if poseidon bombs(which i hope it wont) hopefuly itll stop stephon sommers retarded remake of when worlds collide

Lindsay Lohan needs to shut up and choke. Just My Luck looks like a terrible movie. I mean I'd rather see Poseidon.

There is no way that this movie can open to over $20m, Shack.

The last time a female star lead a film to over $20m by herself was back in 2004. Lindsay Lohans dimmed wattage combined with the lack of interest, marketing and buzz as well as what is sure to be a terrible critical reception after negative leaks about Lohans onset attitude means Just My Luck will not make anything more than $16m at very best. Regardless of high theater count.

Yeah, JUST MY LUCK won't crack $15M. I see more along the lines of $13M, but still finishing over $40M, giving her yet ANOTHER hit movie.

Looks like she's still on a good run, with Prairie Home Companion and Bobby coming out later this year.

Shes never had a movie with under a 3.15 multiplier.

Hebie 5.2x
Mean Girls 3.52x
Freaky Friday 4.96x
Confessions 3.15x
Parent Trap 6.0x


For JUST MY LUCK, i see - $13.5/$43M.
One of her lowest grossing, but still a box office hit.

Monster-in-Law? Flightplan?

And you also thought Failure to Launch would bomb because it looked like crap, and then you thought it'd have terrible legs because you still thought it looked like crap. Instead, it had a 3.56 (Best multiplier for an adult-aimed film this year) and went 6 weeks without a 40% drop (Unheard of this year).

Please, just stop trying to predict RomComs. While I don't think it'll break $20M for the weekend (It doesn't have the advertising for that) I still think it has breakout potential, as Stick It showed teen girls are starved for a movie.

It's going to be a dud of a weekend next weekend, but I say expect some smaller drops because of it.

1. POSEIDON - 31.7 Million
2. MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 3 - 24 Million
3. JUST MY LUCK - 15.1 Million
4. RV - 7.8 Million
5. AN AMERICAN HAUNTING - 3.8 Million
6. STICK IT - 3.6 Million
7. UNITED 93 - 2.9 Million
8. ICE AGE 2 - 2.6 Million
9. HOOT - 2.4 Million
10. AKEELAH & THE BEE - 2.1 Million
11. SCARY MOVIE 4 - 1.9 Million
12. GOAL! - 1.9 Million
13. SILENT HILL - 1.8 Million

Poseidon- $38,000,000
Mission Impossible 3- $21,600,000
Just My Luck- $14,300,000
RV- $7,000,000
An American Haunting- $3,100,000

Will re-predict 'Poseidon' & 'Just My Luck' on Thursday after Theatre Counts are final.

As long as Poseidon makes over $35,000,000, i'll be happy. But i'm hoping it's nearer or above $40M.

Poseidon - $34.6m
Just My Luck - $14.8m
Goal! - $1.5m

Poseidon won't pass $35 million.

1. Poseidon - $32.7 million
2. Mission: Impossible 3 - $25.6 million
3. Just My Luck - $13.3 million
4. RV - $7.4 million
5. Stick It - $3.3 million
6. United 93 - $3.2 million
7. An American Haunting - $3.1 million
8. Ice Age: The Meltdown - $2.4 million
9. Akeelah and the Bee - $2.2 million
10. Goal - $2.1 million

I finally find myself agreeing with Wells on one thing: that 3% first choice figure for Poseidon is just terrible. And 60%/25% figure for Da Vinci Code is absolutely huge.

According to Box Office Guru, ART SCHOOL CONFIDENTIAL will be going into "nearly 800 theatres" on the 12th. If there's truth to this, I think it's an incredibly stupid move for UA/Sony Pictures Classics to make. The words "from the director of BAD SANTA" won't be enough to draw mainstream consumers to such a quirky-seeming flick.

POS - 30m
MI3 - 22m

1. Poseidon - $33.1 million
2. Mission: Impossible 3 - $24.9 million
3. Just My Luck - $15.9 million

People will be waiting for the next two weeks - Da Vinci, OTH and X3.

At least Poseidon is on moviefone, first positive sign that it could open in the $30-35m range.

Xiayun, how much weight do you think MovieFone really has, though? I remember when that dreadful Mary Kate & Ashley movie was also on there.

As I always said, appearing early doesn't mean it'll succeed (unless it's a kid/CGI movie), like the (in)famous example of New York Minutes beating Van Helsing, but appearing late for certain genres most likely means trouble. So I wouldn't predict over $30m just because Poseidon shows up now; this only allows the possibility of a good opening. If it had started to show up on Wednesday, it would have definitely pointed to a sub-par $20m opening.

Well he did say "could" I doubt it but then again Poseidon doesnt see to have any press hype or even any backlash, the boards dedicated to the film is very inactive so it does look surprising it made it on moviefone so early

Yeah, you just need to know how to look at Moviefone. It can be on early and not be a hit. But if it ISN'T on early it's almost always a bad sign. In Poseidon's case though, I'd say that this is really good considering it seems likely to have more appeal to older audiences less likely to go online.

Hey guys,

This is off topic, but I'm curious to know why not many of you have given your input for the upcoming MTV Movie Awards. The poll is in the : "AND THE AWARD GOES TO SECTION"

I'm interested in what you all think as you all seem to know your movies.

thanks,

LB

No tracking yet, but MTC expects M:I-3 to be #1 this weekend...

MI3 to retain number #1? That would mean that Poseidon is tracking below 26 million?

Tracking...



Well, bad for Poseidon, but I'm not shocked. I'm more surprised at their prediction for Mission: Impossible III's second weekend. That'd be a 41% drop from last weekend.

Excellent for all the 'future' ones, though I don't take them very seriously considering ReelSource's inconsistancy.

Wow, only $21 million for Poseidon? That's bad. So much for this summer topping last year. First MI3 and then this. DVC would have to open to $77 million to make up for it.

I, personally, think this summer is looking a lot like 2004. The first two weekends were considered quite disappointing for the box-office, and it ended up becoming the biggest summer of all-time in terms of gross. 2006 will bounce back.

The second half of May is looking better and better each day.