I can already imagine the headlines: "Poseidon sinks."

I think $100M would be good for this film. The studio obviously don't have alot of confidence, so i rekon they would be happy with a $100M total gross.

Anything under that, i would regard as a dissapointment.

I always thought this would do poorly. I don't think this should ever have been given a greenlight with that budget.

Meh even if it sucks, it will be the only major new blockbuster type movie opening the weekend it comes out. Yes MI3 might be still strong but even so, a lot of people like to go to something fresh each weekend, especially in May.

Final revised prediction
27.0 million
70 million total

I have a bad feeling for this movie. I seen commercials for X-3,MI3, Davinci Code play for Lost and Invasion but none for Poseidon. Its probably not far from the truth when its dubbed KOH 2006

Poseidon had ads on House which has far higher ratings than Lost or Invasion these days.

If the film does bomb, it should be compared to The Island and Stealth, not KOH. Like those, it was a PG-13 action film with a lack of starpower. The Island's plot wasn't clearly laid out and had a confused marketing campaign, and Stealth had shoddy effects, a goofy plot and no memorable money shots. Thing is, Poseidon's marketing has clearly displayed the story and has a big memorable money shot, and the effects only look questionable to the most picky of high-def trailer viewers. Unless people think the movie looked too goofy with the boat turned over, I can't see why it'd out and out bomb. Maybe it'll open in the mid 20s, but 15 million? That just seems absurb...

I am just not feeling it, but frankly its final trailer was very impressive and disaster flicks usually do well in the summer. I just don't see it opening below $20 million. It all depends on how huge M:I-3 will be...

My current predictions:

Opening weekend - $31.5 million

Total gross - $85 million

Just like in The Island's case, I expect great overseas results, so I don't see it finishing below $200 million worldwide.

Estimated for 3,500+ theaters next weekend. At least WB is pushing Poseidon now, but it's kind of late for a huge opening weekend. Just a decent one, considering the budget. M:I-3 could be #1 for a second weekend.

38/103.

I doubt MI3 will top for a second weekend. It's almost assured of a 50%+ drop, given the extreme frontloading. It'd either have to have a huge opening (which would increase the frontloading anyway) or Poseidon would have to tank. It'll be close, but I doubt it'll happen.

I don't see it getting a $10,000 PTA as of now.

I don't think it's that they look questionable as much as that they are not memorable, which will hurt it. The Day After Tomorrow, I, Robot and many other before them, which used special effects to success at the BO, all showed audiences something they had never seen before. Poseidon doesn't really stand out, and effects like that are expensive, so I wonder what the studios are thinking in taking risks like this. Well, I guess it has to do with them being slow to change. If a movie doesn't have a brand name of some kind, I don't think a big budget is ever worth the risk. The original Poseidon isn't popular enough to count.

The big, BIG difference between disaster flicks like The Day after Tomorrow, Deep Impact etc. and Poseidon is that the scales are different. In one case, whole cities are destroyed and most parts of the humanity are threatened. In another, it is just one ship...

Just because its in 3500 theaters doesnt assure its a lock for 35 million. And wasnt movies like Shaggy Dog in almost 3500 theaters but did less than 20 million still. Like I said, the trailers are better to be stupid as opposed to boring since stupid trailers are unpredictable that they actually make money but boring flicks seem to draw no interest

Yes, very true.

Although Signs did had a smaller story, in that case I think they managed to make it look bigger in the marketing. Same with WOTW to a lesser extent.

Yeah, give it 5 years, and 4,000 won't make something a lock for 30m.

Exactly. Also, Signs' success was also a combination of a curiosity around a popular phenomenon, Mel Gibson's huge starpower and Shyamalan who was still riding on The Sixth Sense's success wave.

Id also like to note that Elektra and Coby Banks were some of the movies to fall below a 15 million opening despite a 3000 theater opening. Other movies followed through with being released in 3000 theaters but maintaining less than a 15 opening.
Poseidon isnt a lock for 35 million

i see a 10,500 pta.

Acccording to http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com it is tracking to open with less than 20 million 8 days before opening. Not good and it's looking to be a flop. Josh Lucas is the king of summer flops, it seems.

Odd. the last tracking a few days ago had it at 39m opening.

If you guys want to see the latest tracking, check out the prediciton threads stickied at the top, people often post tracking for upcoming films.

That's RS though, which isn't very reliable. It only has 3% first choice. RS puts too much emphasis on awareness which is of course good for any film marketed at every demographic. But, that doesn't mean people will see it.

I'm hoping that the advertising kicks into high gear starting Monday. From what I hear, this isn't a bad film, but the awareness isn't too high right now. Still, I think it will make a decent choice for anyone who's checking out MI:3 this weekend.

It was fine in the early 70's. This version looks like pure garbage.

24/66

Obviously, people are saving their money for Posieden!

Or The Da Vinci Code and X3.

Opening: 26.4
Total: 73.9 (2.80)