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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm
Posts: 21572
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excel wrote: what makes us so sure mi3 will dissapoint anyway? i had 70/200.
the way i see is it goes -better then expected movier + smaller then expected opening=same total. Its in 4000 theaters which means its multiplier will be cut. It all goes back to the supply/demand theory. In this case they oversupplied it that there werent as many sold out shows to carry onto the following week
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| Sat May 06, 2006 1:48 pm |
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jb007
Veteran
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:47 pm
Posts: 3917
Location: Las Vegas
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Libs wrote:
Ice Age: Sequel.
Inside Man: Panic Room didn't get to 100 with a slightly higher opening; no cause for alarm here.
MI3: Not as high as expected, but $17M isn't terrible either. I agree. MI3 is far from terrible.
I'm just trying to compile opinions on the yearly BO performance till now and some thoughts on the next couple of months.
_________________
Dr. RajKumar 4/24/1929 - 4/12/2006
The Greatest Actor Ever.
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| Sat May 06, 2006 1:49 pm |
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Box
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 12:52 am
Posts: 25990
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Magnus101 wrote:
But the bigger fact was that for BB at least, the opening was not huge so even good legs don't matter. A film can open at 20m and get a 5.0 multiplier and get to 100m. That's really good legs. But another film can open to 50m and get a 2.5 multiplier and get to 125m. Bad legs, but in the end, the total is lower and for overall BO, that's all that matters.
Quality def. helps films a lot. But it is not the one big factor that decides how well BO is for the film. BO is all about big openings now, and the easiest way to get a big opening is with a franchise film.
Batman Begins had an excellent box-office run. It opened as well as anyone might reasonably have expected it to, and had very, very strong weekend numbers thereafter.
However, with franchise films, one of the biggest indicators of a film's performance is measured in the opening of the next film in the franchise. BB2, whenever it opens, will probably open with $60-80m. _________________In order of preference: Christian, Argos MadGez wrote: Briefs. Am used to them and boxers can get me in trouble it seems. Too much room and maybe the silkiness have created more than one awkward situation. My Box-Office Blog: http://boxofficetracker.blogspot.com/
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| Sat May 06, 2006 1:50 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm
Posts: 21572
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 Box wrote: Magnus101 wrote:
But the bigger fact was that for BB at least, the opening was not huge so even good legs don't matter. A film can open at 20m and get a 5.0 multiplier and get to 100m. That's really good legs. But another film can open to 50m and get a 2.5 multiplier and get to 125m. Bad legs, but in the end, the total is lower and for overall BO, that's all that matters.
Quality def. helps films a lot. But it is not the one big factor that decides how well BO is for the film. BO is all about big openings now, and the easiest way to get a big opening is with a franchise film.
Batman Begins had an excellent box-office run. It opened as well as anyone might reasonably have expected it to, and had very, very strong weekend numbers thereafter. However, with franchise films, one of the biggest indicators of a film's performance is measured in the opening of the next film in the franchise. BB2, whenever it opens, will probably open with $60-80m. Lets see now, BB had summer weekdays to help, it also had better grade at yahoo which means general audiences liked it better, it wasnt oversaturated with ads either and didnt have the type of hype MI3 had, plus people didnt know BB was opening on wednesday
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| Sat May 06, 2006 1:53 pm |
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bABA
Commander and Chef
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 12:56 am
Posts: 30505
Location: Tonight ... YOU!
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Here it is once again.
56 million.
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| Sat May 06, 2006 1:54 pm |
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jb007
Veteran
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:47 pm
Posts: 3917
Location: Las Vegas
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bABA wrote: Here it is once again.
56 million. Pesos? 
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Dr. RajKumar 4/24/1929 - 4/12/2006
The Greatest Actor Ever.
Thanks for The Best Cinematic Memories of My Life.
Last edited by jb007 on Sat May 06, 2006 1:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Sat May 06, 2006 1:54 pm |
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Squee
Squee
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:01 pm
Posts: 13270
Location: Yuppieville
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bABA wrote: Here it is once again.
56 million. I already noted the time, damn it. _________________Setting most people on fire is wrong.Proud Founder of the "Community of Squee." 
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| Sat May 06, 2006 1:54 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22182
Location: Places
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i agree with baba, ive seen a lot more marketing for posiedon then i have MI3.
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| Sat May 06, 2006 1:55 pm |
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bABA
Commander and Chef
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 12:56 am
Posts: 30505
Location: Tonight ... YOU!
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my 2 cents.
jb .. agreed that we haven't had a killer film as yet. and MI3 should have done more.
What i have noticed on the other hand though is the strong performance of mediocre grossing films this year, something that was missing last year.
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| Sat May 06, 2006 1:56 pm |
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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm
Posts: 13054
Location: Augsburg (2,040 years young)
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What slump?
For the last two month we had better grosses than the comparable weeks last year. So far the year is ahead by several % and the box office outlook until July is great (not so sure about August though). September and August looks great and November/December could hold its own vs. last year.
Again, what slump?
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| Sat May 06, 2006 1:56 pm |
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bABA
Commander and Chef
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 12:56 am
Posts: 30505
Location: Tonight ... YOU!
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Magnus101 wrote: Oompa Loompa Midget Man wrote: Lets see now, BB had summer weekdays to help, it also had better grade at yahoo which means general audiences liked it better, it wasnt oversaturated with ads either and didnt have the type of hype MI3 had, plus people didnt know BB was opening on wednesday Where were you in June 2005? Ads were everywhere for BB, and expectations were high. Maybe not for some on this site, but if you went to any tracking site or any other BO site, BB was tracking at a 60m-65m OW and a 5-day around 95m-100m. A 73m 5-day is falling short of expectations. And Box, if BB2 opens below 80m, that will be a shocker. The fanbase this has now is so high and espically with higher ticket prices come 2008, a sub-80m OW would be shocking. Magnus. Where do you currently reside?
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| Sat May 06, 2006 1:57 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm
Posts: 21572
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Magnus101 wrote: Oompa Loompa Midget Man wrote: Lets see now, BB had summer weekdays to help, it also had better grade at yahoo which means general audiences liked it better, it wasnt oversaturated with ads either and didnt have the type of hype MI3 had, plus people didnt know BB was opening on wednesday Where were you in June 2005? Ads were everywhere for BB, and expectations were high. Maybe not for some on this site, but if you went to any tracking site or any other BO site, BB was tracking at a 60m-65m OW and a 5-day around 95m-100m. A 73m 5-day is falling short of expectations. And Box, if BB2 opens below 80m, that will be a shocker. The fanbase this has now is so high and espically with higher ticket prices come 2008, a sub-80m OW would be shocking. I said it didnt have the hype of MI3. MI3 commercials were playing even in Lost episodes in march. Media kept covering it, tie ins everywhere. Batman Begins marketting was mainly from the internet and then its ad campaign began sometime around June. You can ask anyone here which movie had more marketing MI3 or BB.
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| Sat May 06, 2006 1:58 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm
Posts: 21572
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bABA wrote: my 2 cents.
jb .. agreed that we haven't had a killer film as yet. and MI3 should have done more.
What i have noticed on the other hand though is the strong performance of mediocre grossing films this year, something that was missing last year. We also witnessed this year the first ever two 20+ openers making less than 50 million, a 40 million opener falling short of 100 million, a 60+ animated kid flick grossing less than 200 million
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| Sat May 06, 2006 2:00 pm |
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jb007
Veteran
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:47 pm
Posts: 3917
Location: Las Vegas
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bABA wrote: my 2 cents.
jb .. agreed that we haven't had a killer film as yet. and MI3 should have done more.
What i have noticed on the other hand though is the strong performance of mediocre grossing films this year, something that was missing last year. True. Movies like Failute to Launch and The Pink Panther have performed better.
@roid: Good points.
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Dr. RajKumar 4/24/1929 - 4/12/2006
The Greatest Actor Ever.
Thanks for The Best Cinematic Memories of My Life.
Last edited by jb007 on Sat May 06, 2006 2:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Sat May 06, 2006 2:03 pm |
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Squee
Squee
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:01 pm
Posts: 13270
Location: Yuppieville
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Everyone always forgets the great slump of 1953. This would be Slump III if we were to actually count.
_________________Setting most people on fire is wrong.Proud Founder of the "Community of Squee."
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| Sat May 06, 2006 2:03 pm |
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bABA
Commander and Chef
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 12:56 am
Posts: 30505
Location: Tonight ... YOU!
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i don't know man.
I still like what I see.
http://boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2006&p=.htm
Anyone has a chart for how things stood last year at this point?
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| Sat May 06, 2006 2:04 pm |
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bABA
Commander and Chef
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 12:56 am
Posts: 30505
Location: Tonight ... YOU!
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Squee wrote: Everyone always forgets the great slump of 1953. This would be Slump III if we were to actually count. 1953 was known for bad BO, not bad B.O.
hee hee
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| Sat May 06, 2006 2:05 pm |
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Squee
Squee
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:01 pm
Posts: 13270
Location: Yuppieville
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bABA wrote: Squee wrote: Everyone always forgets the great slump of 1953. This would be Slump III if we were to actually count. 1953 was known for bad BO, not bad B.O. hee hee Did you know that when I click on a thread created by you I get an advertisement for tiny "love toys?"
You sick bastard. _________________Setting most people on fire is wrong.Proud Founder of the "Community of Squee."
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| Sat May 06, 2006 2:07 pm |
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bABA
Commander and Chef
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 12:56 am
Posts: 30505
Location: Tonight ... YOU!
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haha did you know that when i click in a thread where Box has posted, i get 40 year old virgin.
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| Sat May 06, 2006 2:09 pm |
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FILMO
The Original
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 10:19 am
Posts: 9808
Location: Suisse
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watch this thread
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=15672
I made an update on the last page
rational wins over emotions and feelings....mhhhkaaayyyyy????
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| Sat May 06, 2006 2:12 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32578
Location: the last free city
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excel wrote: i agree with baba, ive seen a lot more marketing for posiedon then i have MI3. i've seen more marketing for M:I:3 then Poseidon. V_V sadly it didn't help it as much as i thought.
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| Sat May 06, 2006 2:12 pm |
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bABA
Commander and Chef
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 12:56 am
Posts: 30505
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i was refering to movie breakdown more actually.
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| Sat May 06, 2006 2:15 pm |
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gardenia.11/14....
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:43 am
Posts: 1241
Location: the south
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It's economic naiviety to assign the same value to POTCII as to POTCI... The first spawned itself PLUS the sequel... The sequel doesn't add as much future value...
It's a slump, comparing to last year is the weakest comparison...
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| Sat May 06, 2006 7:59 pm |
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paper
Artie the One-Man Party
Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:53 pm
Posts: 4632
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The fact that M:I-3 is underpermforming is a GOOD sign...Audiences are obviously waiting for that big summer movie they want to see, now we have to figure whether it is Pirates, Superman, or Da Vinci (Cars will be big, but nothing out of the ordinary for Pixar or computer animation numbers)
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| Sat May 06, 2006 8:06 pm |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm
Posts: 21856
Location: Walking around somewhere
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MI3 did not Underperform, Im sorry but I will say it again, Mi2 was one of the worst renowned sequels in the lines with Beverly Hills Cop 3, Rocky V, Batman and Robin. I'm sorry for those that loved it, but because the first was so great, thats why it improved over the 1st. The new film had a lot going against it and opened in a very good spot, I still think it will pull a 3 multiplier for around 53 million.
From KJ, I suppose its a disappointment, but its a hit considering the quality of the last film.
_________________ Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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| Sat May 06, 2006 8:14 pm |
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