Is this year's box office headed for a disappointment?

There have no been no breakout hits other than Ice Age 2. Even that is a question mark, since the final total may not even pass Ice Age's adjusted total. That is more worrisome since Ice Age 2 had a 50% bigger weekend than Ice Age.

Jodie and Denzel could not get Inside Man to $100M even with excellent reviews.

M:I3 is a disappointment.

Poseidon seems destined for mediocrity or less.

DVC is an adult thriller. So no big openings but still should do very well.

Over the Hedge and X-3 should do well. How well is the 64K question.

June and beyond: only three biggies, Cars, SR and POTC2 left to save the day.

A couple of the biggies disappoint, this could be the Slump the Sequel.

Well, at least 2007 won't be another one.

jb007 your reasoning is somewhat disjointed.

The sky is falling!!!

MI3 will make more than the big opener last year in its first weekend...little early to talk about a slump

Yes! Ive always maintained that 06 would not be the big saviour people make it out to be. Summer should be ok, so to the fall but I fear November may be weak. The next BO boom will be 2007.

I think the fact that films like Inside Man, Scary Movie and Pink Panther failed to reach $100m is worrying. But nevertheless they are big successes.

I think Ice Age 2 did well however. Overseas its done brilliantly.

I think DaVinci and OTH will both open big and DaVinci has a shot at $300m. X3 is looking to $200m plus.

Cars and POTC2 are anchors. If one of these dissapoints - then 06 is in trouble. Otherwise its still looking robust. Actually better than I expected.

Why?



Yep. Shrek 3 and SM 3 should bring them in.

Wow, "Chicken Little" started after only one day. That didn't take long, did it? It's going to fun to see what happens when DVC underperforms. Mass suicides?

Slump should not be confused with Disaster.

M:I3 may be a diappointment due to expectations. But it will still be a success.

Does gasoline costing $3.30 a gallon also have to do how people spend their traveling time wisely? You never know. There was a report about how much public transportation has increased due to higher gasoline prices and some people save almost $100 a month doing this as opposed to driving their own car

As with last year's slump, this year's (assuming there is or will be one) is really a nonevent.


The state of the box office reflects the quality of the entertainment produced. If the films are bad, the receipts will disappoint. The idea that we group films together according to the calendar and assign the overall performance a certain label is fundamentally a vain endeavour, though I do understand the logic behind it.

I expect 2007 to be a great year because I think the quality of the films (SM3, and yes, Shrek 3) will be better. I also think that we have been spoiled majorily by the tremendous popularity and great quality of the franchises of the last half decade. We would have been much worse off without LOTR, HP, Shrek, and Spider-Man.

Can it really be a slump if almost every single weekend handily whoops last year?

I mean, last year was a slump because attendance/ticket sales were down from 2004. Obviously, 2006 is not going to decline from 2005 (box office has been up almost every weekend since early March, if I'm correct).

Cruse's biggest opening without the help of a holiday is $37ish m from Interview With The Vampire. WOTW, w/ the inflated Sunday, still didn't do $65 m and on a normal weekend would have done high 50's to $60 m. The $70 m + openings seemed a bit too much...

There are other factors contributing to it. As roid mentioned, $3.3/Gallon of gas ceratinly is not helping the cause.

I think that plays a large role too, but I think the effects of it are dampened slightly by the ultra-wide releases, which make it easier to get to a theater near you. In big cities with public transit (ok,ok, NYC ) it might not be as big an issue as in rural areas.


I still think the lack of quality entertainment is the primary reason behind the lower attendance. People went to great lengths to wtach Titanic, and obviously made room in their schedule for Shrek 2. Let us not forget that they also turned out in large numbers to watch Narnia during the winter, when gas prices weren't that low either.

Quality is subjective (unless it's total crap). It's more a thing of appeal. If a movie doesn't appeal to great many people, no matter its perceived quality, it won't make big bucks. But of course quality helps...

Poseidon will have a 56 million + opening.


mark my words.


MARK THEM!!

Of course it showed in the BO, which is why Batman Begins and Wedding Crashers had some of the best legs of any major films this decade so far.

Also, ultimately, the opinion of the audience at large, as represented by attendance figures and box offce receipts, has the final say on whether a certain year's releases were more attractive or not. Some seventy million people in 2004 thought Shrek 2 was appealing and entertaining enough for them to pay the price of admission to go and watch it. Roughly the same number thought the same thing about Spider-Man. Whether you think these are quality films is irrelevant. The point is that seventy million people at that time thought them sufficiently entertaining to view.

what? weve won like 6 straight and will win this weekend and next weekend...and well take june and july too. what ar you talking about?

*notes the time*

not only that but i think 06 will be one of th ebiggest years for overseas number ever.

ice age could top 500 million. mi3 will top 300. poseidon 200. da vinci 300. xmen 200. cars 400. superman 300. pirates 400.

thats just through july.

I have used the word Slump to describe an overall box office performance versus week to week comparision to last year.

The only evidence I am using are the performances of the few movies mentioned below,

Ice Age 2's performance after an OW of $68M.

Inside Man not being able to get to $100M.

M:I 3's opening day.

Maybe OTH, DVC, X3, Cars and SR do very well and all this talk just goes away.

But it seems like a valid talking point at this time.

Ice Age: Sequel.

Inside Man: Panic Room didn't get to 100 with a slightly higher opening; no cause for alarm here.

MI3: Not as high as expected, but $17M isn't terrible either.

Also at this stage there is only one movie thus far that passed 100 million. Wasnt like 2 years ago that there were 3 movies that passed 100 million by may each year starting in 2001?

what makes us so sure mi3 will dissapoint anyway? i had 70/200.

the way i see is it goes -better then expected movier + smaller then expected opening=same total.